How Should Slovenia Design Fiscal Policies in the Government Debt Crisis?

We investigate how fiscal policies should be designed in Slovenia during the next few years. Using the SLOPOL model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyze the effects of different fiscal policies using simulations and determine optimal fiscal policies for Slovenia. We show that the optimal design of fiscal policies is rather close to the austerity course as detailed in the Slovenian Stability Program, revealing the small scope of possible alternative fiscal stabilization policies available due to the relatively low effectiveness of the fiscal instruments with respect to their influence on the business cycle in the Slovenian economy.     

Firm heterogeneity, productivity and spatially bounded knowledge externalities

In this paper, we argue that conceptually disentangling the ‘context versus composition’ aspects of regional growth is a multilevel issue. By applying multilevel models (also called random-effects models), we show (1) the importance of considering firm-specific characteristics simultaneously with region-specific characteristics, as we find that a large part of what is traditionally assigned to the impact of the region should be assigned to firm-specific characteristics and (2) that existing single-level methodologies can be problematic, as they are vulnerable to the charge of estimating significance levels that are too liberally assigned and promote exaggerations. This is illustrated empirically by showing that single-level approaches would lead to the conclusion that innovation spillovers are highly significant in a setting of Dutch urban growth differentials, while multilevel analyses shows less liberally assigned significance levels. We conclude that multilevel-effect models better fit research questions that combine firm and spatial characteristics simultaneously, especially because they allow firm-specific characteristics to be differently linked to their regional contexts.     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.     

On Keynes on inflation and unemployment

Keynes tends to be represented as someone who thought that alleviating unemployment was more important than any other consideration. Interestingly it seems that this was not always the case; he did not recommend employment creation under all conditions of excess labour supply. The great inflation of World War I and its aftermath left an indelible impression on him, and this mitigated his position on the importance of high levels of employment. In 1920 he recommended that inflation in the UK be controlled even if some unemployment would result, and there is at least some hint in his work that the relative importance to him of inflation and unemployment did not vary much over the remainder of his life.     

财政赤字规模应把握社会承受力限度

平衡财政赤字有举债和银行透支两个途径，二者可兼用。举债要视当期财政收入状况为前提，银行透支超越社会承受力一定限度将致发通胀。因此，必须关注财政赤字规模的社会承受力。从全国看，财政赤字规模---一定限量银行透支应以一定限量社会闲置货币资金的存在---社会承受力为依托。财政赤字宜用积极手段平衡。     

Direct Democracy and Local Public Finances under Cooperative Federalism

In this paper, we exploit the introduction of the right of local initiatives in the German state of Bavaria in 1995 in order to study the fiscal effects of direct democracy. Our identification strategy combines difference‐in‐differences and regression discontinuity methods: we compare municipal expenditure and revenue between pre‐ and post‐reform periods at population thresholds where the signatures needed to launch initiatives and minimum quorum requirements decrease discontinuously (difference‐in‐discontinuities design). The results suggest that stronger direct democratic institutions lead to an expansion of local government size.     

金融风险社会化的最后防线及我国的现实选择

金融风险社会化是金融风险从金融系统溢出，蔓延至实体经济、国家财政甚至社会公众的过程，这种风险扩散后患无穷。通过对历次金融危机的梳理，总结金融风险社会化的一般路径，厘清国家财政必须承担起金融风险社会化最后防线的责任，并参考国际经验和我国国情，提出防范金融风险社会化的政策建议。     

Does personal background influence a finance minister to cook the books? An investigation of creative accounting in Swiss cantons

This article aims to identify the factors influencing the use of creative accounting in the public sector. Its distinctive feature is that it sheds light on creative accounting when used, not to hide public deficits, but to conceal surpluses. It especially explores the impact of the finance minister’s (FM)’s background on the phenomenon. We take advantage of the quasi-experimental settings of the Swiss cantons in which the financial management act sets out the possibility of implementing certain accounting gimmicks, including mainly additional ‘depreciation’ charges. These charges, which are depreciations in name only, enable the FM to artificially inflate expenses, thus increasing the deficit or reducing the surplus. Our panel data set of the 26 cantons over the period 1980–2012 includes a new data set of creative accounting and of 116 cantonal FMs. Our results indicate that the FMs cook the books irrespective of their personal or ideological background with the exception that trained economists tend to apply creative accounting more. Additionally, stringent fiscal rules urge FMs towards more surplus-hiding accounting.     

支持辽宁文化事业大发展的财政政策研究

文化建设是中国特色社会主义总体布局的重要组成部分,文化发展离不开财政的大力支持。财政政策的目标应与辽宁省国民经济以及文化发展的目标相一致。财政政策主要是拉动文化增长的政策,着力点应放在扩大内需上。为了促进辽宁文化事业的大发展、大繁荣,必须制定相应的财政支持政策,而且应做到多项并举。     

地方财政压力与投资多样性——基于所得税分享改革的研究

利用企业所得税分享改革构建强度倍差模型，使用1997—2012年全国地级市数据，检验了地方财政压力对于投资多样性的影响及相关传导机制。结果表明，地方财政压力不利于投资多样性的提高；在财政压力下，地方容易形成偏向房地产行业的投资倾向。然而，不同地区地方财政压力对投资结构的影响存在异质性。经济发展水平较低的地区在财政压力下更容易降低投资多样性；而经济发展水平高的地区应对财政压力时，更倾向于通过多元化投资的方式做大税基、减轻财政压力。优化分税制结构、建立地方性税种能缓解地方财政压力，对于改变地方“房地产集中型”投资结构有一定的积极作用。