商品房价格不确定条件下旁地产企业投资决策的期权模型研究

随着我国市场改革开放的进一步深入，市场竞争日益激烈，房地产投资受市场不确定性因素影响更加敏感。本文首先将房地产项目的固有价值进行分解，将不确定性建立在房地产投资产品——商品房的价格之上，利用美式永续期权定价方法建立相应的房地产企业投资决策模型。本文还对这一模型进行了数值分析，分析表明，房地产企业投资期权价值以及最优执行期权时的临界价格与其相应的商品房价格的波动率成正向相关关系.     

新常态下中国货币政策的宏观经济效应研究 ——基于不同中介目标的实证检验

以中国2003-2020年的季度宏观经济数据为样本,通过构建时变系数向量自回归模型分析银行间同业拆借利率、M2、信贷规模、社会融资规模四项货币政策中介目标对实际产出、通货膨胀、房地产市场以及股票市场的动态影响效应.结果表明:同业拆借利率对产出的影响呈增强趋势,M2、信贷以及社会融资规模等数量型货币政策对产出的影响效应更显著;信贷与社会融资规模对通货膨胀的影响效应较显著;同业拆借利率对房地产市场的短期影响效应较大;M2、信贷与社会融资规模对房地产与股票市场的长期影响效应较大.     

Commodity price stabilisation: macroeconomic impacts and policy options

A macroeconometric simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation (CPS) schemes for the export tree crop industry in Papua New Guinea. The findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of CPS. Contrary to the expectation, CPS adversely affects the stability of monetary and external sectors (BOP). CPS policy has failed to stabilise the macroeconomy. The price stabilisation policies are no longer appropriate from the macroeconomic point of view. Technical change, futures market and rural savings are the possible alternative policy options to manage the price risk.     

林地价格及其形成

纯天然的林地和已投入人类劳动的林地都具有价格。林地价格是由林地总价值所决定的,林地总价值包括林地等效价值和林地劳动价值。林地等效价值决定林地物质价格,林地劳动价值决定林地资本价格。林地收益、供求关系、效用和稀缺程度是林地价格的重要影响因素。     

The role of temperature for seasonal market integration: a case study of poultry in Iran*

Understanding market integration has greatly benefited from analysing and comparing variations in price transmissions. An important source of variation in agricultural markets is seasonal changes in production, consumption and transaction costs. A key factor driving seasonality in agricultural price is temperature, as supply and demand changes are triggered by seasonal temperature differences. In this paper, we study the seasonal variations in vertical price transmission focusing on the asymmetric price adjustment to analyse changes in the market interactions between the stages of the value chain. Our data reveal significant transitory effects of temperature on the price transmission process. Results of a panel threshold model suggest that the farm–wholesale price adjustments to deviations from the market equilibrium are more symmetric at higher temperatures. However, we do not find an effect of temperature on the wholesale–retail price relationship. Our findings can be rationalised with wholesalers making use of their market power to extend their margins in the upstream chain. Wholesaler market power is lower during warm periods, and price adjustment is more symmetric. Concerning the Iranian poultry value chain, our findings imply that temperature-related differences in market interactions should be considered in formulating policy interventions.     

股票网络平台中的噪音会影响股价同步性吗

股价同步性是衡量资本市场信息效率的重要指标。股价同步性的影响机制一直以来都是金融研究的热点问题。本文使用文本分析的方法,通过机器学习度量了东方财富股吧中股民发帖评论中的非理性噪音,检验了股票网络平台中的噪音与股价同步性之间的关系。研究发现：第一,股票网络平台中的噪音会促使投资者做出非理性的投资决策,进而降低股价变动的同步性。噪音评论占全部评论的比例越高,上市公司的股价同步性越低,而且两者之间呈现倒U型的非线性关系。第二,公司个股新闻与公告数量的增加、分析师关注度的提高与外部审计质量的提升,均可以减弱股票网络平台中的噪音对股价同步性的影响。本文关注网络新媒体中的噪音对股价同步性的影响,研究结论对于监管部门加强网络信息监测以及上市公司进一步完善信息披露渠道具有现实意义。     

Ticket prices and revenue levels of tourist attractions in China: Spatial differentiation between prefectural units

Ticket pricing is a key issue for tourism research in China. Owing to regional differences, a unified nationwide price reduction strategy for tourist attractions would be inappropriate for China. To assist in regional ticket pricing decisions, this study uses ArcGIS spatial analysis methods to analyze the spatial differentiation of ticket prices and revenue levels between prefectural units, using 2017 data from 9450 A-grade tourist attractions. The results reveal prominent characteristics of spatial differentiation in tourist attractions’ average ticket prices, as well as in the proportion of their revenue from ticket sales, between prefectural units. Ticket prices are generally low in north China and high in south China; meanwhile, the proportion of ticket revenue is generally high in east China and low in west China. The factors influencing such spatial differentiation are tourism resources, local socio-economic conditions, and the management of tourist attractions. The findings help stakeholders to make differentiation strategy.     

期货市场与现货市场之间的价格研究--中国农产品市场的经验

本文借助于信息共享模型与波动溢出效应模型对我国大豆和小麦的期、现货市场之间的价格发现进行了多层次的实证研究,定量描述了期、现货市场在价格发现中作用的大小,深入刻画了我国农产品期、现货市场之间的动态关系.研究结果显示:大豆期、现货价格之间存在双向引导关系,小麦仅存在期货对现货的单向引导关系;期、现货市场均扮演着重要的价格发现角色,且期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位;期、现货市场之间均存在双向波动溢出关系,但现货市场来自期货市场的波动溢出效应均强于期货市场来自现货市场的波动溢出效应;并且,随着期货市场的发展,期、现货市场之间的波动溢出程度均呈逐渐增强态势.     

价格歧视下的不可再生资源的开采问题研究

自Hotelling开始,不可再生资源开采问题引起了经济学家们的注意,在此过程中,产业组织理论被应用于不可再生资源的研究.文章分析了价格歧视对不可再生资源开采的影响,结果发现,当资源的垄断开采者面向多个市场时,价格歧视因素可能使资源开采偏离最优路径.     

农业水价综合改革的推进困境及成因分析——基于小农户风险视角

农业水价综合改革在部分地区进展相对滞后。利用制度变迁及制度配置理论,分析了农业水价综合改革推进困境的特征及成因。结果表明,农业水价综合改革推进困境的主要特征是部分地区小农户对农业水价提高的接受意愿较低,客观上造成精准补贴和节水奖励难以发挥作用。该困境的核心成因是奖补政策无法缓解改革中的小农户风险,具体表现为:小农户对已有非正式农业用水制度的路径依赖,催生了对农业水价新制度的适应风险;农村社会保障制度等相关初级制度不够完善,加剧了农业水价提高后小农户的生产和生活风险。提出应因地制宜地设计农业水价改革的微观主体管理模式,将生存灌溉补贴和农业保险补贴纳入奖补政策,完善农村基础设施和社会保障体系。