我国上市公司净资产收益率剧烈波动的影响因素分析——来自深圳A股市场2001年度的证据

本文采用实证研究的方法,对我国深圳股票市场2001年度净资产收益率大幅下降的原因进行了分析。我们得到的证据是:已处于亏损境地企业的该指标变动,是深市净资产收益率大幅下降的最主要因素;其他因素虽有一定影响,但不够显著。本文旨在分析和探讨净资产收益率变动的规律,以为相关研究提供思路。     

401（k）计划—最流行的企业补充养老保险形式

对美国最流行的企业补充养老保险—— 4 0 1(k)计划的运行机制、优缺点和设计模式做了详细的介绍和评述 ,指出了 4 0 1(k)计划对中国养老保险制度改革的启示∶虽然属于企业补充养老保险 ,但是“基金制”的运作模式势必要导入我们的养老保障系统。分析了 4 0 1(k)计划在中国的适用性问题。     

Factors affecting the price of Swedish forest land, 1965–1987

A model for the determination of the price of forest land is estimated for Sweden from 1965–1987, when (except for a few years) private non-industrial forest owners could finance their holdings at a negative real after-tax borrowing rate. It is assumed that credit has been limited by the value of mortgage security, assessed independently of the price settlement. The estimated coefficients of the regression equation are used for a calculation of the average real rate of discount of forest owners and the average value of amenities. The model also evaluates the effect of the temporary land price regulation from 1979–1987.     

A Note on Green Taxes and Double Dividends

Two highly influential articlesin the literature on green taxes and double dividends are Bovenbergand de Mooij (1994) and Goulder (1995). Goulder's primary concernis whether or not green tax reforms may increase welfare definedexclusive of environmental quality, while Bovenberg and de Mooijprimarily focus on the employment effects of such reforms. Unfortunately,Goulder misinterprets Bovenberg and de Mooij's results in takingthe sign of the uncompensated wage elasticity of labour supplyas being the decisive factor for whether or not welfare exclusiveof environmental quality rises under a green tax reform. Thiserror is pointed out and corrected in this note.     

Tax Clientele Effects in the Term Structure of UK Interest Rates

This paper tests for tax clientele effects in the term structure of UK interest rates. Five empirical models of the term structure of interest rates, incorporating tax effects, are estimated with daily data covering the period 31 March, 1995 to 3 August, 1995. In May 1995, the British government announced its intention to eliminate the tax exemption on capital gains from government bonds, but subsequently in July 1995 backtracked on some of its initial proposals. This period therefore forms the basis of a crude natural experiment in the sense that it provides an opportunity to examine tax clientele effects 'before' and 'after' an event which should have levelled greatly the taxing of government bonds. The empirical analysis suggests large tax clientele effects. However, there is little evidence of tax-specific term structures of interest rates.     

Measuring the Cost‐Effectiveness of an R&D Tax Credit for the UK

This paper investigates the economic impact of the government's proposed new UK R&D tax credit. We measure the benefit of the credit by the effect on value added in the short and long runs. This is simulated from existing econometric estimates of the tax‐price elasticity of research and development (R&D) and the effect of R&D on productivity. For the latter, we allow R&D to have an effect on technology transfer (catching up with the technological frontier) as well as innovation (pushing the frontier forward). We then compare the increase in value added to the likely exchequer costs of the programme under a number of scenarios. In the long run, the increase in GDP far outweighs the costs of the tax credit. The short‐run effect is far smaller, with value added only exceeding cost if R&D grows at or below the rate of inflation.     

Measuring the welfare costs of EU accessionThe case of VAT reform in Bulgaria

We analyze possible reforms to the Bulgarian VAT system, evaluating revenue-neutral reallocations of goods to tax bands within the existing 2-rate structure. We investigate the sensitivity of the results to behavioural response and imperfect tax recovery. We find only a weak case for the use of non-uniform VAT rate structures for redistributional purposes. Selective VAT exemptions can produce approximate welfare gains equivalent to a general price fall of much less than 1 per cent for plausible specifications of social welfare.
JEL classification: D31, J31, P24.     

REFRIGERATION AND DISTRIBUTION: NEW ZEALAND LAND PRICES AND REAL WAGES 1873–1939

The responses in New Zealand to the opportunities of refrigeration transformed farming in the Dominion during the half-century from 1890. Closer settlement and the extension of the cultivated area combined with more intensive farming methods to increase land productivity and real gross domestic product capita to the extent that living standards in New Zealand measured by the Human Development Index ranked first in the world by 1913. In contrast, real wages in the Dominion stagnated. The refrigeration-related trade boom had powerful income distribution effects that increased sharply the land rental–wage ratio during the years to 1920. Widely diffuse land ownership in New Zealand tempered the rise in income inequality, to set the Dominion apart from other land-abundant economies of the periphery.     

科技对农民增收贡献的实证研究——以苏州农村为例

本文首先应用苏州实际GNP、资本存量、劳动力的序列数据直观分析了农民收入的趋势和源泉．在此基础上应用C-D生产函数建立农民收入的计量经济学模型，并估计出各要素的边际产出弹性，随后进一步应用索洛余值法估计科技进步对农民收入增长的贡献．并对计量结果进行了简要的理论分析．并据此提出了相应的结论。