小额贷款的业务效率与关联效应:解析鲁省邮政储蓄银行

以山东省为样本,采用随机前沿法测算地区邮储银行小额贷款业务的效率,并对收入水平、贷款额度对效率水平的影响进行实证分析后发现,小额贷款业务总体效率水平较高,而且县域地区支行效率高于城区支行;在其他因素相同的条件下,农民收入水平越低的地区,小额贷款业务效率越高;此外,单笔贷款额度的大小对小额贷款业务效率并没有显著影响。     

关于执行《建造合同准则》的有关问题探析

针对执行《建造合同》中准则的三个实际问题提出一些处理建议,为对《建造合同》准则进一步完善起着积极作用,也为施工企业在执行准则中有关问题的会计核算提供参考。     

利用期权的博弈分析管理国家助学贷款

针对国家助学贷款信用风险高的问题,引入期权的博弈分析方法,设计一种国家助学贷款的偿还模式,这种还款模式可以看作有着延展期限的敲出期权,通过借贷双方博弈分析得出结论:借款者通过付费延长贷款的生命期,选择违约边界;贷款者通过调整利率影响借款者的选择,使贷款合同保持激励作用。这种利用期权的博弈分析方法管理国家助学贷款可以有效避免借款者违约,减少银行的贷款风险。     

产业集群与小额贷款公司配套发展路经问题研究

山东省泰山钢材大市场的少数资金富余企业通过建立小额贷款公司，继承原有的资金互助传统，实IT非正规金融向正规金融的转化，并以更高的效率缓解了产业集群内中小企业融资难问题，实现小贷公司与产业集群的共生发展。对该案例的分析表明，内生于产业集群的小额贷款公司，在控制交易成本和风险上具有先天优势，对小额贷款公司可持续发展路径具有一定借鉴意义。     

七级多指标识别模型在商业银行贷款风险防范中的实证研究

本文从商业银行的贷款实际业务中，设置了32个贷款风险因素指标，构建了七级风险模糊识别模型，力求用一套现代定量方法对商业银行贷款风险进行有效的识别，目的在于揭示受评对象未来偿付能力的大小，以及影响该能力的各种因素及其变化趋势，定量化分析受评对象贷款违约的可能性及其严重程度，从而对商业银行贷款质量得出评估意见。     

Loan price modelling for local governments using risk premium analysis

Previous studies have highlighted the question of government loan interest as one of great current importance. Government borrowing levels are high, and reducing interest payments would generate savings to meet other spending needs and/or to lower taxation, thus supporting the sustainability of public finances. However, no previous study has presented a method for a local government to calculate its own credit risk and thus be in a position to negotiate lower interest rates on its borrowing. This article defines a financial model that enables local governments to estimate the interest rate payable on a bank loan, based on their credit risk premium, in accordance with the Basel II rules and the findings of our empirical study of large local governments.     

MULTIDIMENSIONAL DISTANCE‐TO‐COLLAPSE POINT AND SOVEREIGN DEFAULT PREDICTION

By focusing on sovereign defaults, this paper introduces a multidimensional distance‐to‐collapse point based on a two‐step procedure. The first step is nonparametric and provides an early warning system that signals a potential crisis whenever preselected leading indicators exceed specific thresholds. The second is parametric and incorporates the first‐step country default predictors within a probit specification. Such a two‐step procedure generalizes the distance‐to‐default à la Merton within a multidimensional setting, wherein we care about the distance of each indicator from its threshold. Empirical evidence about debt crises of emerging markets over the period 1975–2002 proves that our methodology predicts 80% of the total defaults and non‐defaults in and out of sample. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对商业银行拓展优质个贷客户的思考——以黑龙江省建设银行为例

稳定并拓展优质客户是商业银行提高竞争力的手段之一,是商业银行立足之本。商业银行在拓展对公优质客户的同时,还必须拓展对私优质客户,拓展对私优质客户的关键是拓展优质个贷客户。     

Termination of distressed residential mortgages: An empirical analysis

A sample of 209 distressed mortgages is used to analyze the terminations of distressed mortgages. An option-based model is compared to a traditional default model. Results show that the traditional model is statistically superior. However, the model's ability to identify a default is similar to that of the simpler option-based model. Alternative measures of borrower's equity are compared. Measuring borrower's equity using total debt more accurately explains default than using either the mortgage balance or the mortgage value.