MULTIDIMENSIONAL DISTANCE‐TO‐COLLAPSE POINT AND SOVEREIGN DEFAULT PREDICTION

By focusing on sovereign defaults, this paper introduces a multidimensional distance‐to‐collapse point based on a two‐step procedure. The first step is nonparametric and provides an early warning system that signals a potential crisis whenever preselected leading indicators exceed specific thresholds. The second is parametric and incorporates the first‐step country default predictors within a probit specification. Such a two‐step procedure generalizes the distance‐to‐default à la Merton within a multidimensional setting, wherein we care about the distance of each indicator from its threshold. Empirical evidence about debt crises of emerging markets over the period 1975–2002 proves that our methodology predicts 80% of the total defaults and non‐defaults in and out of sample. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE (IR)RELEVANCE OF THE NRU FOR POLICY MAKING: THE CASE OF DENMARK

We reconsider the central role of the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) in forming policy decisions. We show that the unemployment rate does not gravitate towards the NRU due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay between lagged adjustment processes and growth in dynamic labour market systems. We choose Denmark as the focal point of our empirical analysis and find that the NRU explains only 33% of the unemployment variation, while frictional growth accounts for the remaining 67%. Therefore, our theoretical and empirical findings raise doubts as to whether the NRU should play such a key instrumental role in policy making.     

The macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views

We distinguish and assess three fundamental views of the labor market regarding the movements in unemployment: (1) the frictionless equilibrium view; (2) the chain reaction theory, or prolonged adjustment view; and (3) the hysteresis view. While the frictionless view implies a clear compartmentalization between the short- and long-run, the hysteresis view implies that all the short-run fluctuations automatically turn into long-run changes in the unemployment rate. We assert the problems faced by these conceptions in explaining the diversity of labor market experiences across the OECD labor markets. We argue that the prolonged adjustment view can overcome these problems since it implies that the short, medium, and long-runs are interrelated, merging with one another along an intertemporal continuum.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Averaging: A Normative Linear Pooling Approach

Focusing on credit risk modelling, this paper introduces a novel approach for ensemble modelling based on a normative linear pooling. Models are first classified as dominant and competitive, and the pooling is run using the competitive models only. Numerical experiments based on parametric (logit, Bayesian model averaging) and nonparametric (classification tree, random forest, bagging, boosting) model comparison shows that the proposed ensemble performs better than alternative approaches, in particular when different modelling cultures are mixed together (logit and classification tree). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of the wage-productivity gap in economic activity

This paper argues that wages lagging behind productivity is a long-run structural phenomenon due to the interplay of wage dynamics and productivity growth. We call this interplay frictional growth, a term that can only be nullified in the utopian case of zero growth and/or no dynamics. In that vein, we challenge the prevailing view of the neutrality of the labour income share and investigate its impact on the evolution of employment. We thus estimate wage setting and labour demand equation systems – for France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK, and the US over the 1960–2008 period – and find that the labour share is negatively associated with employment even when the conventional assumption of a unitary long-run elasticity of wages with respect to productivity holds. Acknowledging the presence of the wage-productivity gap in both the short and long run, this work stands as the building block for assessing the effect of the falling labour share on economic activity. As recent work has shown that the widening wage gap is also an important factor prompting inequality, it can be argued that by supporting employment the falling labour share ‘sweetens’ the impact of rising income inequality, and, as such, deserves the attention of policy makers.     

Is enterprise risk management real?

Moving from the growing relevance of the enterprise risk management (ERM) concept, this paper provides empirical evidence of ERM in practice. The paper presents ERM actual uses in a panel of nine Italian companies from different industrial fields and legislative settings and analyses the relationship between the uses and the characteristics of the ERM tool implemented in each case. The data analysis highlights the existence of different activities that are supported by the ERM tool and also different types of use (i.e. responsive, discoursive and prospective) corresponding to a different contribution of ERM to managerial action. These uses related to the specific characteristics of the tools generally indicated with the label ‘ERM’.     

Practice Variation in Public Sector Internal Auditing: An Institutional Analysis

This article aims to analyze the rise of practice variations in public sector internal auditing (IA), giving special attention to the role of agents’ embeddedness in multiple institutional arrangements. IA's trends of development and the characteristics of the public sector context, in fact, make IA inherently subject to multiple institutional forces that interact with the system of values and beliefs of individual internal auditors. The empirical analysis, which relies on case study methodology, highlights the inherent tensions associated with the changing role of IA and shows how different types of IA developed in three case settings, shaped by the agents’ embeddedness in different institutional fields. This article provides a more comprehensive approach to the study of IA adoption and development in public sector organizations than previous literature, and it highlights the relevance of the interplay between actors’ contemporary embeddedness in professional systems and the focal social system as a relevant source of practice variation. In this respect, the case of IA can contribute to previous studies of practice variation in the field of management accounting, shedding some light on the types of tensions that emerge when persons with mixed professional identities are involved in a field.     

Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals

In this article, we try to realize the best compromise between in‐sample goodness of fit and out‐of‐sample predictability of sovereign defaults. To do this, we use a new regression‐tree based approach that signals impending sovereign debt crises whenever pre‐selected indicators exceed specific thresholds. Using data from emerging markets and Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (GIPS) over the period 1975–2010, we show that our model significantly outperforms existing competing approaches (logit, stepwise logit, noise‐to‐signal ratio and regression trees), while balancing in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance. Our results indicate that illiquidity (high short‐term debt to reserves) and default history, together with real GDP growth and US interest rates, are the main determinants of both emerging market country defaults and the recent European sovereign debt crisis.