关于我国水银行制度建设几个问题的思考

水银行作为水权租赁和水量买卖双方的中介,是调剂用水余缺、节约水交易成本和促进水资源可持续利用的一个有效工具。水银行制度建设要解决与水资源行政主管部门的关系、规避运作风险及化解交易外部性等三个大问题。作为一个经济组织,水银行要独立于水资源行政主管部门,水资源行政主管部门可以运用行政手段和经济手段来管理水银行,还可以参加水银行交易以满足公共利益的用水需求。在水银行交易出现“空头”,即买入量小于卖出量时,可以运用休耕、水库余水、地下水、节水和水管部门“公开市场业务”等方法来调整,或在出现“空头”之前就采取向卖方预订一定水量的选择权等方法。水交易具有很强的外部性,降低水银行交易外部性的方法有预防性措施和补偿性措施。     

完善劳动仲裁时效制度的构想

目前关于劳动仲裁时效的立法及法律解释存在不同的提法，导致对劳动仲裁时效的理解较为混乱，从而影响劳动争议案件的解决。本文认为，完善劳动仲裁时效制度应考虑设立时效制度的意义、劳动法的立法目的、劳动争议解决体制等因素。建议劳动仲裁时效制度沿用民法的时效制度。     

农业大户经营方式:中国农业第二个飞跃新路径

通过调查研究认为 ,农业大户经营方式是推进农业第二个飞跃的理想路径。它促进着农村集体经济理念的更新 ,对农业发展具有积极的推动作用 ,是解决农民增收问题的根本之路。发展农业大户经营方式需要树立“民营农业经济”的概念。     

Detecting periodic patterns of arrival delay

This study identifies the periodic patterns of arrival delay for non-stop domestic flights at the Orlando International Airport during 2002–2003. Cyclic variations in air travel demand and weather at the airport were observed and their consequent effects on flight delay were investigated. This study detected the frequencies of any regularly repeating delay patterns and then identified the factors associated with the detected frequencies of delay. These sequential tasks called the “two-stage approach” were performed using a mathematical frequency analysis and statistical analysis techniques. The results of the frequency analysis showed that arrival delay displayed daily, weekly and seasonal patterns of variation. The results of the statistical analysis showed that time of day, day of week, season, flight distance, precipitation at MCO and scheduled time intervals between successive flights were significantly correlated with arrival delay.     

Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long‐Term Yields

In February 2005 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan noticed that the 10‐year Treasury yields failed to increase despite a 150‐basis‐point increase in the federal funds rate and called it a “conundrum.” This paper investigates the historical relationship between the 10‐year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate and finds that the relationship changed dramatically in the late 1980s, well in advance of Greenspan's observation. The paper evaluates three competing hypotheses for the change. The evidence from a variety of sources supports the conclusion that the most plausible explanation is that the change occurred because the FOMC began using the federal funds rate as a policy instrument.     

Canonical Term‐Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia

We derive a canonical representation for the no‐arbitrage discrete‐time term structure models with both observable and unobservable state variables, popularized by Ang and Piazzesi (2003) . We conduct a specification analysis based on this canonical representation and we analyze how alternative parameterizations affect estimated risk premia, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions. We find a trade‐off between the need to obtain parsimonious parameterizations and the ability of the models to match observed patterns of variation in risk premia. We also find that more richly parameterized models uncover a greater influence of macroeconomic fundamentals on the long‐end of the yield curve.     

货币政策、企业生命周期与银行信用

以2006—2015年A股上市公司为样本,采用筛选出的1225家公司10年期的面板数据,通过构建固定效应模型研究货币政策、企业生命周期与银行信用三者之间的关系,结果显示：（1）不同生命周期阶段的企业拥有不同的银行信用,其中成长期企业拥有最多的银行信用,衰退期次之,成熟期末之;（2）货币政策对不同生命周期阶段的企业银行信用产生的影响不同,具体为,衰退期企业和成熟期企业受货币政策的影响比较大,成长期企业受货币政策的影响比较小。研究结论对处于不同生命周期阶段的企业在货币政策变动的情况下如何进行银行信用融资具有一定的启示意义。     

再融资公司的现金分红和现金流操控研究

证监会2006年和2008年相继发布了强制拟再融资上市公司分派现金股利的文件,旨在提高股东回报。以2006年和2007年A股再融资上市公司为样本,对这些政策颁布前后上市公司分红和现金流的变化情况进行研究发现,在证监会强制要求下,上市公司的分红水平有所提高,但股利分派也成为了大股东转移公司利益的手段。而且,公司的现金流在再融资前后波动较大,存在被操控的迹象。     

国债期限结构问题初探

国债功能的发挥要以完善的国债期限结构为前提。我国在完善国债期限结构方面已取得了一定进展 ,但仍有一些配套性制度改革工作要做。     

Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange markets

Using a new approach relying on news wire reports, we estimate the proportion of secret interventions (i.e., unreported official interventions) in the foreign exchange markets that have been conducted by the three major central banks since 1985. We therefore revisit the estimation of conditional probabilities of secret operations and compute them by both central bank and operation type. The proportion of secret interventions is found to be lower for concerted operations and to display a great deal of variability over time as well as across the three major central banks. Our analysis reveals that the Bank of Japan has recently adopted an intervention policy more based on secret operations.