积极财政政策的可持续性分析

本文分别从当前宏观经济形势、我国政府债务风险和公共部门投资的挤出效应三个方面考察了我国积极财政政策的可持续性。认为我国当前的经济形势下 ,积极财政政策的淡出还为时尚早 ;我国单纯的国债风险并不高 ,但是我国政府的综合债务风险却相当大 ,控制我国综合债务风险的关键是控制存量 ;我国公共部门对民间投资的挤出效应不明显 ,当前民间投资不活跃的主要原因是另一种“挤出效应” ,即对民间投资的歧视和限制 ,要改变这种情况的主要方法是改革     

Stock Index‐linked Debt and Shareholder Value: Evidence from the Paris Bourse

French banks and non‐financial companies issue index‐linked debt whose value at maturity is indexed to the CAC 40 or to a basket of European indices. This paper examines stock announcement effects associated with these bonds on three dates: the date the issuer's General Assembly decides future capital needs, the publication in the journal of the COB (the stock market board), and the issue date. We find the issuance of index‐linked debt has significant positive announcement effects on the issue date, which we attribute to its market‐completion property. In order to examine further whether market completion is at play, we decompose the value of the bond at issue into its straight bond and option values. We determine that the bonds are overvalued again supporting market completion.     

The survivorship bias, share price effect, and small firm effect in Canadian markets

After controlling for survivorship bias, we examine the relation between average returns, firm size, and price levels for Canadian stocks during the 1975-1994 period. Our findings indicate that there is a significant inverse share price level effect in Canadian markets. When we compare the results of the overall sample with the groups of surviving firms and delisted stocks, the latter group shows strong performance for large-size, high-priced stocks. Evidence that supports an independent size effect is less clear for Canadian stocks. A small size effect exists only among the higher share price denominations, which suggests a confounded size-price effect. Although the delisted group returns are statistically different from those of the survivor and the overall groups, which implies some evidence of survivorship bias, the difference between the survivor group and the overall group is weak at best.     

Flypaper Effect and Sluggishness: Evidence from Regional Health Expenditure in Italy

In Italy, public expenditure reduction is achieved through a revision of social security and health care programs. In particular, public health expenditure control has been implemented through a reform that imposes more stringent budget rules to local governments and a considerable reduction in grants-in-aid from the central government. This paper investigates empirically whether the response to this decrease in categorical lump-sum grants from the central to local governments results in an asymmetric response to intergovernmental grants. Hard budget and soft budget constraint hypotheses are estimated by using a sample of cross-sectional and time observations covering the 20 Italian regions over the period 1989–1993. The main finding is the existence of a standard and a super flypaper effect in both models. The introduction of the soft-budget constraint hypothesis results in a stronger effect of grants and a lower response of own resources which shows that local governments prefer to incur some deficit instead of reducing health care expenditure.     

Money and exchange rates in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg model

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on inflation, interest rates and exchange rates in a model with segmented asset markets developed by Grossman and Weiss (1983) and Rotemberg (1984, 1985). We find parameters for which real and nominal exchange rates in this model are (1) much more volatile than interest rates, inflation rates, and money growth rates, (2) highly correlated with each other, and (3) highly persistent. While this model fails to match the data in other important respects, it illustrates a potentially useful approach to modelling exchange rate behavior.     

Complementarity, coordination and compatibility: The role of fixed costs in the economics of systems

We analyze industry equilibrium and incentive to compatibility when goods produced by different producers generate utility only when consumed as component parts of a system. We assume the presence of two systems, each composed of some basic component and a set of differentiated complementary products. The combination of complementarity between the two components of the system and of fixed costs in the production of the complementary product results in a form of network effect. We focus on the role played by the size of the fixed costs in the production of the complementary products in determining the size of this system effect and, by this means, the structure and types of equilibria that may be observed: monopolistic or duopolistic, symmetric or asymmetric. We also highlight the consequence of the same fixed costs for the private and social incentives to render the systems compatible.     

税收优惠对外商投资影响的研究综述

税收优惠是各国政府用来吸引外商投资的常用手段。但是,税收优惠如何影响外商投资历来就是一个充满争议的话题。早期国际上关于税收优惠对外商投资影响的经典理论主要有庇古的福利经济学理论、“双缺口”模型和邓肯的国际折衷理论,而近来也有不少国内外学者分别从区位选择、融资来源、投资类型和投资形式等角度论证了税收优惠的作用。     

在华外资银行发展对我国经济增长的影响分析

随着外资银行在我国的发展与壮大,外资银行对我国经济的影响也逐渐增强。本文从正反两个方面探讨了在华外资银行发展对我国经济增长的影响,认为在华外资银行的发展一方面给我国经济增长带来了积极的正面效应,另一方面也带来了一定的不稳定因素。因此,我国应该采取一定的措施最大限度地发挥在华外资银行对我国经济增长的积极作用,严格控制在华外资银行对我国经济增长的不利影响。     

论我国机构投资者对股票市场的反稳定作用

运用数理统计的基本原理，指出导致近几年中国股市非理性下跌的最直接原因，是以证券投资基金为主的机构投资者超常规发展。在目前的情况下，不宜继续提倡大力发展机构投资者，应努力恢复股票市场对中小投资者的吸引力，实现中国股市投资主体之间的“生态平衡”，从而支持中国股市长期稳定和谐发展。     

企业模块化的边界及其经济效应研究

作为一种分析工具，模块或模块化的涉及范围和利用能力非常强大。尤其是在信，皂，技术快速发展和需求日益个性化的知识经济时代．对模块化理论的重新解读和运用，更有助于我们认识新经济现象的本质特征。大量的研究已显示．企业模块化以后形成了一种全新的组织形式，而且带来了许多令人想像不到的效果。但这并不意味着对企业模块化研究的终结。本文试图在经济学理论和模块化理论融合的基础上．探究企业模块化的形成机理，企业模块化的最佳边界．以及企业模块化后究竟带来了怎样影响三个核心命题。