Too Good to be True? An Analysis of the Options Market's Reactions to Earnings Releases

Using option implied risk neutral return distributions before and after earnings announcements, we study the option market's reaction to extreme events over earnings announcements. While earnings announcements generally reduce short‐term uncertainty about the stock price, very good news does not reduce uncertainty and slightly bad news actually increases uncertainty. We also find that left tail probabilities decrease over earnings releases while right tail probabilities increase. We interpret these findings as evidence of maintained investor expectations that very good news is generally not released during earnings announcements, combined with skepticism in the form of lingering uncertainty at the release of such very good news.     

General convex order on risk aggregation

Using a general notion of convex order, we derive general lower bounds for risk measures of aggregated positions under dependence uncertainty, and this in arbitrary dimensions and for heterogeneous models. We also prove sharpness of the bounds obtained when each marginal distribution has a decreasing density. The main result answers a long-standing open question and yields an insight in optimal dependence structures. A numerical algorithm provides bounds for quantities of interest in risk management. Furthermore, our numerical results suggest that the bounds obtained in this paper are generally sharp for a broader class of models.     

Cities and cyberspace: new entrepreneurial strategies

E-commerce is increasingly influencing business operations, as a major supportive medium for different strategies or as a strategy on its own. This paper seeks to identify impacts from concomitant changes on the development of cities. To this purpose, emerging time-based strategies are analysed in manufacturing and customer-services strategies are analysed in the services sector. The focus of the study is on proximity needs and what these needs imply for elimination of physical segments from value chains and insertion of virtual segments into these chains. The findings are then linked with trends for agglomeration or spread of urban activity. The conclusion is that the future of cities is far from clear. Trends for agglomeration go hand in hand with trends for spread on different spatial levels. In addition, there are huge knowledge gaps. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research to fill these gaps.     

Risk averse retail pricing with robust demand forecasting

Good demand estimates are the key to effective pricing decision-making. However, they are subject to a high degree of uncertainty due to various factors that are unpredictable or difficult to model, thus making pricing decisions risky. This research provides a simple proposal for a robust optimization methodology that incorporates both demand uncertainty and the decision maker's degree of risk aversion. Uncertainty is explicitly considered for two coefficients of a linear demand function, price expressions are derived, and a criterion is proposed for defining the degree of risk aversion. The resulting model is also applied to an exponential demand case to better reflect a more realistic retail setting.     

Prediction research on the water quality in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area： a review

对河流水质模型和流域非点源污染模型在三峡库区水质预测的相关研究进行了综述，着重探讨了河流水质模型中水质组分在三峡库区多介质环境的迁移与转化机理．以及流域非点源污染模型在三峡流域污染负荷的研究进展。     

Host country’s environmental uncertainty,technological capability,and foreign market entry mode: Evidence from high-end equipment manufacturing MNEs in emerging markets

The paper investigates the impact of the host country’s environmental uncertainty on the choice of entry mode and also discusses the moderating role of technological heterogeneity in this relationship. Based on the resource-based view and institutional theory framework, we first analyze the investment motivation of emerging industries in emerging markets and evaluate the environmental uncertainty from two dimensions, including the institutional environment (country level) and industry environment (market level). Then, the theoretical predictions are empirically tested using 173 overseas investment events in China’s high-end equipment sector from 2010-2018. Our findings suggest that when the uncertainty of the industry environment is low, no matter how uncertain is the institutional environment, most firms tend to choose a cooperative strategy. Once the industry environment indicators become turbulent, a high degree of institutional environment uncertainty causes firms to evade trade barriers by choosing a new plant. Alternatively, choosing a relatively conservative mode, such as export. Meanwhile, technological capability weakens the influence of environmental uncertainty on entry mode.     

对国际转移定价避税条件的讨论和反思

转移定价避税交易并非都发生在传统的关联企业之间。一般法规常用的关联企业认定条件存在着范围"窄化"的倾向,应该借鉴国际惯例中"实质重于形式"的原则,扩展我国转移定价法规调整的对象和范围。     

需求不确定对单周期产品的生产商—零售商供应链的影响

在单周期产品的生产商—零售商的供应链中,由于市场存在着激烈的竞争,市场需求的不确定性必然会对供应链双方的决策产生很大的影响。借助传统的报童模型,建立Stackberg博奕模型,考虑了一个供应商面对两个不同零售商时的情景,分别分析了当零售商决策依据是最大化期望利润和当两零售商的市场需求相关时,以及在零售商的决策依据是在给定利润水平时最大化其概率的情况下,市场需求不确定会对供应链双方产生怎样的影响。     

利益分配、战略行动与集体选择的不确定性

爱因斯坦说,时间是一种错觉;普利高津则说,确定性是一种错觉。而文章认为,均衡也是一种错觉:集体选择的结果存在内生的不确定性。基于个体战略行动的多样性,文章从利益分配的角度对集体选择的不确定性作出了理论上的证明。认识到集体选择的不确定性特征对于理解社会的运行以及设计与社会控制相关的制度规章都具有重要的意义。     

论基于符号语义学的平面广告设计

就语义学特征而言,将视觉形象明显地区别于语言和其他传播形式的正是它们的标记性和形象性以及由此带来的视觉结构的不确定性特征,从平面广告角度说,视觉结构的相对不确定性在视觉说服中发挥着关键作用,更为视觉传播的形式和内客创新提供依据.