CAFTA-DR Effects on FDI Inflows,Growth, and Distribution of the Workforce in Costa Rica: A System Dynamics Approach

As regional trading arrangements have spread, enlarged, and deepened over the last decades, the study of the relation between trade agreements and foreign direct investment (FDI) still presents difficulties due to the multi-dimensional character of such relationships. This article attempts to shed new light on how some of the Central American Free Trade (CAFTA) policies will impact FDI inflows on the manufacturing and agricultural sectors in Costa Rica. Specifically, we look at how the growth and distribution of the workforce is affected by the treaty. The results show that the agreement provisions will have a positive effect on FDI. From these results it is possible to estimate that in the long run, the implementation of CAFTA has a higher probability of generating the intended benefits. System dynamics modeling is used in this article.     

Nonparametric learning rules from bandit experiments: The eyes have it!

How do people learn? We assess, in a model-free manner, subjectsʼ belief dynamics in a two-armed bandit learning experiment. A novel feature of our approach is to supplement the choice and reward data with subjectsʼ eye movements during the experiment to pin down estimates of subjectsʼ beliefs. Estimates show that subjects are more reluctant to “update down” following unsuccessful choices, than “update up” following successful choices. The profits from following the estimated learning and decision rules are smaller (by about 25% of average earnings by subjects in this experiment) than what would be obtained from a fully-rational Bayesian learning model, but comparable to the profits from alternative non-Bayesian learning models, including reinforcement learning and a simple “win-stay” choice heuristic.     

Performance implications of knowledge and competitive arousal in times of employee mobility: “The immutable law of the ex”

This article elaborates on extant literature on employee mobility by focusing on how the movement of personnel between competitors affects their competitive positions. Our mixed‐methods study of 402 head‐to‐head encounters from the English Premier League (2000–2005) reveals that transferred players improve the performance of the recipient team in head‐to‐head encounters against the donor. We also provide evidence that competitive arousal, as triggered by anger and pressures for proving loyalty to the recipient organization, as well as knowledge of the donor team's routines, explain the superior performance of transferred players. These results question the traditional view that organizational routines are not transferable through employee mobility. They also move beyond a prior emphasis on the negative effects of emotional states such as anger and competitive arousal, highlighting how these can occasionally be beneficial. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism

This paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism-driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand. We present a formal model and empirical evidence. The ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an AK technology representing tourism production. The model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade. In our empirical application, an econometric methodology is applied to annual data of Antigua and Barbuda from 1970 to 2008. We perform a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. The exercise confirms the theoretical findings.     

价值网络视角下纯电动汽车的破坏性创新研究

随着全球化的迅速发展,各行各业的竞争越来越激烈,为寻求自身竞争力的提高,后发企业凭借新的价值网络进行破坏性创新,从而实现对原有企业的冲击或替代。通过市场所要求的性能改善轨线与纯电动汽车技术性能改善轨线的有无交点的方法对我国纯电动汽车开展破坏性创新进行分析,研究发现,虽然充电时间是制约纯电动汽车的最大障碍,但是由于纯电动汽车整个价值网络的支撑和燃油汽车市场的开始衰落,纯电动汽车的破坏性技术已经对燃油汽车市场形成初步的冲击。     

Regional and Sector-specific Determinants of Industry Dynamics and the Displacement–replacement Effects

In this paper, we empirically assess the importance of regional and sector-specific determinants of industry dynamics. To this aim we test three hypotheses (originally proposed by Shapiro and Khemani (1987, Int J Indust Organ 5:15–26)) for the relationship between the entry and exit of firms: independence, symmetry and simultaneity. Estimates from a panel data system of equations seem to confirm the simultaneity hypothesis for Spain, i.e. we find evidence of a displacement (replacement) effect between the gross rate of entry (exit) and the gross rate of exit (entry). Also, our results show that, irrespective of the hypothesis we use, both sectorial and regional variables affect entry and exit.

The macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views

We distinguish and assess three fundamental views of the labor market regarding the movements in unemployment: (1) the frictionless equilibrium view; (2) the chain reaction theory, or prolonged adjustment view; and (3) the hysteresis view. While the frictionless view implies a clear compartmentalization between the short- and long-run, the hysteresis view implies that all the short-run fluctuations automatically turn into long-run changes in the unemployment rate. We assert the problems faced by these conceptions in explaining the diversity of labor market experiences across the OECD labor markets. We argue that the prolonged adjustment view can overcome these problems since it implies that the short, medium, and long-runs are interrelated, merging with one another along an intertemporal continuum.

创业市场信心与创业行为关系的动态解析 ——基于GEM与WBD的混合横截面数据的经验证据

本文以行为理论为基础,从动态视角出发,探讨完整经济周期下,创业者创业市场信心与创业行为间关系的变化趋势。同时,分析创业者所处国家的经济发展水平与结构以及自身社会经济地位在创业市场信心对创业行为正向作用变化趋势中的调节效应。本文根据2006-2015年全球创业观察(GEM)与世界银行数据库(WBD),构建混合截面数据来探索创业者创业市场信心的反应及其差异。研究发现：(1)在经济衰退期内,创业市场信心对创业行为的正向作用会显著减弱。在随后的经济扩张初期,创业市场信心对创业行为的正向作用会明显增强;(2)处于发展中国家以及高经济外向度国家的创业者,创业市场信心对创业行为的正向作用的减弱与增强均会更加剧烈。另外,补充研究发现：(3)仅在经济扩张初期,创业者社会经济地位能积极调节时间对创业市场信心与创业行为间关系的调节效果。本文揭示了创业市场信心与创业行为间关系的变化趋势及该变化产生的边界条件,在一定程度上丰富了创业心理驱动要素对创业行为影响的动态研究,并促进实践界关注经济衰退对创业市场信心的冲击而带来的创业活动萎靡的潜在风险。     

中国绿色产业发展演进特征及数字普惠金融支持分析

为探究中国绿色产业发展现状、空间差异、分布动态演进及数字普惠金融支持效应,论文基于变异系数—层次分析法测度绿色产业发展水平,通过空间Moran’s I指数、Dagum基尼系数及Kernel密度估计分析其空间差异及分布动态,继而利用空间杜宾模型分析数字普惠金融对绿色产业发展的影响。结果表明,绿色产业发展水平正在快速提升,但存在明显空间差异及“俱乐部”发展特征,东、中、西部地区呈梯度递减演进趋势,且整体及东、西部地区具有明显多级分化现象;数字普惠金融能促进整体及东、中部地区绿色产业发展,对西部地区则有抑制作用。对此,应充分重视绿色产业发展的空间差异、分布特征及数字普惠金融异质性支撑作用,强化省份间的区域协调发展效应,实现绿色产业高质量发展。