完善中国商业银行汇率风险管理之对策

随着人民币汇率体制改革和银行业发展进程的加快,国内商业银行的外汇敞口风险、客户外汇风险和折算风险日益显著,汇率风险管理面临着机遇与挑战。国内商业银行应在新的汇率机制下尽快转变风险管理理念,在较为准确地对汇率风险进行识别和计量的基础上,充分利用汇率体制改革深化所创造的有利条件和金融创新的契机,对汇率风险进行主动的控制和管理,最终建立全面的汇率风险管理体系,真正实现获取风险收益的现代商业银行经营模式。     

现金股利对会计信息的治理

会计只能提供相对相关和可靠的信息，在控制逆向选择和道德风险方面作用有限，形成了会计目标实现的障碍，这迫使投资者不得不去寻找其他信息渠道，以期更有效地决策。现金股利就是投资者寻找的信息渠道之一，它和会计信息在提高信息的相关性、可靠性以及控制逆向选择和道德风险方面共同发挥作用，并形成竞争态势，这种竞争态势实质上起到了对会计信息的治理作用。     

新形势下中国企业对外投资的区位选择综合决策模型

对外直接投资的区位选择是跨国公司管理决策的关键点,在很大程度上决定着投资的成败,现有理论在解决了众多为何要对外投资的问题,但在向何处投资的问题上却没有理论和模型可以全面解释。本文建立了新的对外直接投资的区位选择决策二级系统模型,将影响因素按影响效果和属性分类,利用模糊优选方法解决了非量化因素的量化可比性问题。并将本国与外国因素融入同一模型,同时解决了是否要进行对外投资和向何处投资两个问题。     

Cross-sectional earnings risk and occupational sorting: The role of risk attitudes

This paper investigates to what extent individuals' risk preferences are correlated with the cross-sectional earnings risk of their occupation. We exploit data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which contains a direct survey question about willingness to take risks that has been shown to be a behaviorally valid measure of risk aversion. As a measure of earnings risk, we use the cross-sectional variation in earnings that is left unexplained by human capital variables in Mincerian wage regressions. Our evidence shows that individuals with low willingness to take risks are more likely to work in occupations with low earnings risk. This pattern is found regardless of the level of occupation categories, region, gender and labor market experience.     

港澳珠大桥的方案选择与财务可行性分析

首先介绍了港澳珠大桥的主要方案及分歧所在,然后从区域经济角度进行客货量预测,根据客货量预测和区域基础设施的发展规划,探讨大桥的功能定位并选择最佳方案——中线方案,最后根据客货量预测探讨了大桥的财务可行性,得出结论,港澳珠大桥财务可行。     

Tax Effects in a Model of Product Differentiation: A Note

We investigate how unit (or specific) tax and ad valorem tax affect equilibrium location choice in a model of product differentiation, which includes Hotelling (linear-city) and Vickrey-Salop (circular-city) spatial models as special cases. We find that neither tax affects equilibrium location patterns as long as each firm has the same production cost. Two taxes can yield different location patterns under cost heterogeneity among firms.     

Choice, preference and rationalizability in pareto’s theory of economic behavior

Pareto initiated the shift of economic theory from utility/preference to choice in order to fill a gap between theoretical and empirical economics. His suggestions for an empirically-oriented theory of choice were to be developed decades later in the literature on revealed preference and on the conditions of equivalence between preference-based and choice-based axiomatic structures. In the process, however, substantial departures from Pareto’s implicit design of the situation of choice were introduced. In this paper, the conditions for the rationalizability of choice are re-defined so that they fit the type of situation that Pareto had in mind. The result is that the main consistency axioms of standard choice theory have to give way to a different combination of axioms that concern decisiveness as well as consistency. (JEL:B13, D01, D11).     

欠发达地区建设新农村的模式选择与借鉴

由于区域经济发展不平衡，我国欠发达地区新农村建设面临的困难要大得多。如何推进经济欠发达地区的新农村建设已成为我国新农村建设的重点。选择正确的发展模式对新农村建设具有重要意义。欠发达地区建设新农村模式的选择应坚持生态、富裕、文明等基本方略。部分农村发展模式的成功经验，可供欠发达地区参考和借鉴。     

Prospect theory in the wild: how good is the nonexperimental evidence for prospect theory?

ABSTRACT

Prospect theory is widely thought to be one of the best-confirmed accounts of human decision-making under risk. There are numerous claims in the literature that various kinds of nonexperimental, observational evidence provide strong support for prospect theory. We investigate the veracity of these claims using a set of philosophy of science morals and a careful delineation of models of choice under risk, focussing on the extant versions of prospect theory and their various components. We challenge the claim that prospect theory is well supported because it explains the equity premium puzzle. In addition, we analyse a major international survey thought to support prospect theory and argue that the support is questionable, both for statistical reasons and because the evidence itself is mixed. Our analyses highlight some important ideas in the philosophy of science and caution against strong claims about support for prospect theory that rely on nonexperimental, observational evidence.     

迁移理论的基础:“理解人口学”的分析框架

根据学者布如金所提出的人口理论研究新范式,在对其进行概括和拓展的基础上,提出了“理解人口学”的分析框架。同时综合部分迁移研究的成果,融合不同研究方法,从四个层次:迁移行为的概念假设、迁移行为的发端、迁移行为的外部环境和迁移行为的时间纬度,为人口迁移行为分析提供了-个跨学科的研究视野。