基于系统力学的煤炭固体废物产量模拟与预测——以四川省宜宾市为例

矿业活动在为人类生产生活提供有价值矿产的同时也产生了许多矿业废弃物,矿业固体废弃物的堆积会带来地表水污染、土壤溶蚀、地表景观遭到破坏、地质灾害等一系列环境问题。以四川省宜宾市为研究区域,运用系统动力学理论对研究区煤炭固体废弃物生产与处理情况进行模型构建与情景假设,对煤炭固体废弃物、废石与煤灰渣在环境型情景、当前型情景和能源型情景下的保有量进行模拟。结果显示,2017年煤炭固体废弃物保有量约是2005年的10倍,短期内煤炭固体废弃物的处理能力仍无法满足开采量快速增长的要求。废石处理方面,废石处理能力也有较大提升,煤炭剥采比有减小的趋势,但不明显。煤灰渣处理方面,未来几年,煤灰渣处理将有大幅度提高,环境型情境下的处理比率比当前情境下的处理比率高。同时,将系统动力学理论应用于煤炭开采与使用领域,通过算法对整个系统进行模拟,可得到良好且比较客观的结果。     

Dynamic organizational learning: a narrative inquiry into the story of Huawei in China

In this paper, we apply a model derived from dynamic capability theory to analyse the evolution and development of Huawei as an emerging MNC that is also a dynamic learning organization. We show how this firm has evolved through four distinct eras, characterized in succession by imitation, improvement, integration and cross-disciplinary engagement. Each era has involved a sequence of steps, beginning with opportunities, and followed by path, position, processes and transformation. Through much of its history, Huawei drew heavily on outside expertise. By contrast, the contemporary Huawei has become self-sufficient, as progressive transformations have enabled the firm to acquire dynamic capability for developing unique client-driven solutions by combining knowledge from diverse internal expert communities.     

环境责任承担与企业绩效——理论与实证

在全球经济进入“绿色经济”的大背景下，近年来，生态环境已成为社会各界关注的一个重点问题，也是我国“十三五”规划所关注的重要论题之一。本文以上交所与深交所的上市公司2008～2014年的数据为基础，运用GMM模型，从理论层面阐述了环境责任对企业绩效产生的效应，实证探讨了二者间的关系。文章也创造性地探讨了两者之间的非线性关系，研究发现，承担环境责任对中国企业绩效存在显著的正效应，而且二者之间的非线性关系呈现出倒“U”型。     

A NOTE ON THE QUANTILE FORMULATION

Many investment models in discrete or continuous‐time settings boil down to maximizing an objective of the quantile function of the decision variable. This quantile optimization problem is known as the quantile formulation of the original investment problem. Under certain monotonicity assumptions, several schemes to solve such quantile optimization problems have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we propose a change‐of‐variable and relaxation method to solve the quantile optimization problems without using the calculus of variations or making any monotonicity assumptions. The method is demonstrated through a portfolio choice problem under rank‐dependent utility theory (RDUT). We show that this problem is equivalent to a classical Merton's portfolio choice problem under expected utility theory with the same utility function but a different pricing kernel explicitly determined by the given pricing kernel and probability weighting function. With this result, the feasibility, well‐posedness, attainability, and uniqueness issues for the portfolio choice problem under RDUT are solved. It is also shown that solving functional optimization problems may reduce to solving probabilistic optimization problems. The method is applicable to general models with law‐invariant preference measures including portfolio choice models under cumulative prospect theory (CPT) or RDUT, Yaari's dual model, Lopes' SP/A model, and optimal stopping models under CPT or RDUT.     

供给侧改革背景下创新驱动的动力机制设计

供给侧改革背景下中国经济必须走创新驱动发展的道路.而创新驱动动力机制的设计是推动创新经济发展最重要的驱动力,包括评估与激励机制、空间机制设计、产学研连接机制设计、创新政策的保障机制和创新的社会资本的提升机制.只有不断完善这些机制,才能推动创新战略的顺利实施.     

An environment-adjusted dynamic efficiency analysis of international tourist hotels in Taiwan

The paper is the first study to combine four-stage approach and dynamic data envelopment analysis (DEA) to investigate the efficiencies of 45 international tourist hotels in Taiwan during 2002–2011. Using the four-stage approach of Fried et al. [1999. Incorporating the operating environment into a nonparametric measure of technical efficiency. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 12(3), 249–267] and the dynamic DEA model by Tone and Tsutsui [2010. Dynamic DEA: A slacks-based measure approach. Omega, 38(3), 145–156], the study considers the effects of the external operating environments and carry-over activities between two consecutive terms, and calculates managerial efficiency of international tourism hotels in Taiwan. The empirical results show that dynamic DEA provides more stable pure managerial efficiencies than traditional DEA, reflecting the continuity of the links between terms. Then the study employs Tobit regression to estimate the effects of location, management style, and occupancy rate on input slacks. The location in resort area leads to less slacks of employee and room. The chain system helps reduce slacks in room and area of meal department. The slack of employee and room gets lower while occupancy rate gets higher. After controlling the three external environment variables, the efficiency scores of 28 hotels increase, 9 hotels fall, and other 8 hotels still sustain on the efficient frontier.     

Modeling a Dynamic Portfolio for Pension Plans in Emerging Markets With Myopic and Nonmyopic Behavior

ABSTRACT

We introduce a dynamic formulation for the problem of portfolio selection of pension funds in the absence of a risk-free asset. In emerging markets, a risk-free asset might be unavailable, and the approaches commonly used may no longer be suitable. We use a parametric approach to combine dynamic programming and Monte Carlo simulation to gain additional flexibility. This approach is general in the sense that optimal asset allocation is tractable for all HARA utility functions in the absence of a risk-free asset. The traditional case composed of several risky assets and one risk-free asset is compared to a case in which the risk-free asset is unavailable.     

基于组合赋权与TOPSIS法的政府工程采购评标研究

考虑到政府工程采购评标是一个有限方案的多目标多层次决策问题,提出组合赋权与TOPSIS(逼近理想解排序)法。首先,构建了政府工程采购评价指标体系;然后,针对现有政府工程采购评标方法的不足,提出AHP(层次分析法)组合熵法确定各评价指标的组合权重,再结合TOPSIS法对政府工程采购各方案进行评标;最后,以某政府工程采购评标为实例,验证了组合赋权与TOPSIS法在政府工程采购评标中的应用是可行的。     

基于动态因子分析法的银行体系稳定性测度

银行作为金融业最为重要的组成部分,其稳定性水平会严重影响金融体系的稳定性,进而影响一国经济的发展状况。采用动态因子分析方法对银行体系的稳定性进行综合测度,探析了影响银行体系稳定性的各项因素,发现宏观经济因素对银行体系稳定性的影响程度不如银行自身因素大,最后给出几点关于进一步提高我国银行体系稳定性的建议。     

合芜蚌技术创新效率动态评价与影响因素研究——基于改进的DEA-Tobit两步法分析

文章基于面向竞争的DEA对抗型交叉评价模型和具有动态评价功能的差异驱动模型,运用2004-2012年的面板数据,对合肥、芜湖、蚌埠的技术创新效率进行动态评价,发现合芜蚌各区域技术创新效率差异较大,且近年来呈下降趋势。运用Tobit模型实证分析合芜蚌各区域技术创新效率的影响因素,发现劳动者素质、政府支持度、企业主体地位对合芜蚌各区域技术创新效率具有显著性影响,在此基础上提出相关建议。