产业转移视角下的西部民族地区农村人力资源开发——以贵州为例

抓住东部产业转移的机遇,加快贵州民族地区农村人力资源开发是促进民族地区经济社会发展的必然选择。贵州民族地区人力资源开发还存在行业分布不均,思想意识落后、纪律观念淡漠等问题。加大民族地区基础教育投入,完善职业教育与培训的投入机制,改革技能人才的培养模式,优化发展环境,改革二元户籍制度是加快民族地区农村人力资源开发的途径。     

EXTREME VALUE AT RISK: A SCENARIO FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

This paper uses the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to model the extreme losses that are likely to occur during market crashes, in the case of an investor who has long positions in stocks and currencies. The null hypothesis – which tests for normality of asset returns – is rejected due to asymmetry of these returns. We assume that the asymmetric behaviour and volatility of the returns are captured by the shape and scale parameters, respectively, of a GEV distribution. The data set includes stock indices for the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and South Africa, and the South African rand exchange rates against the US dollar observed from 3 January 2005 to 30 December 2009. In addition, we divide this sample period into two periods: the pre‐crisis period, from 3 January 2005 to 31 December 2007 and the crisis period, from 1 January 2008 to 30 December 2009. We compared the estimates of value at risk (VaR) using an extreme value theory (EVT) model, with the estimates derived from the traditional variance–covariance method and found that during the crisis the 99% extreme VaR estimates are more reliable as they lie within the Basel II green zone. These results suggest that, at higher quintiles, the VaR estimates based on EVT are reliable and more accurate than estimates from the traditional method.     

经济欠发达地区产业集群的发展

产业集群战略已经被实践证明是提升区域竞争力、推动区域经济发展的重要战略。欠发达地区要实现跨越式发展,必须加快工业化进程,培育产业集群,以产业集群带动区域经济发展。欠发达地区产业集群的发展面临诸多有利条件,但也不可忽视产业、企业竞争力弱等因素带来的不利影响。惟有因地制宜、扬长避短,充分发挥市场和政府的作用,才能培育出具有较强竞争力的产业集群。     

基于GIS的大连地被指数研究

根据<国家人口发展功能分区技术导则>要求,在大连市人口发展功能区规划中首要进行的工作就是大连市人居环境适应性评价,而影响人居环境适宜性的诸多自然因素中,最为根本且起主导作用的则主要为能综合反映区域自然条件的土地利用及土地覆盖特征.本文基于gis手段,利用mapinfo和idris软件,以大连市乡镇街道和公里网格为评价单...     

基于分形理论的江苏沿海农村经济发展差异研究

随着江苏沿海地区发展规划上升为国家战略,新一轮沿海开发的号角已经奏响.农村现代化是沿海地区现代化的重要组成部分,如何实现江苏沿海农村经济的快速发展及区域内协调发展是提高江苏沿海经济水平的重要内容,直接关系到沿海地区发展的成败.论文在对沿海地区认识的基础上,首先选取11 个指标构建了沿海农村经济发展差异的评价体系,运用分...     

经济发达地区土地资源利用战略的几点思考

研究目的:提出经济发达地区土地资源利用战略的几点思考,为保障区域土地资源安全和经济社会持续、健康发展提供政策建议。研究方法:实证调研法。研究结果:(1)经济发达地区面临着世界范围的产业转型与转移的重大机遇,也面临着发展用地紧缺的挑战,应从产业选择着手,尽可能降低土地资源的高成本投入。同时,强化优化发展,寻求新的发展模式;(2)经济发达地区优质耕地剧减,加强对现有优质耕地的保护成为土地利用战略抉择的重要方向;(3)为保障土地生态安全,建议利用生态指标进行土地资源宏观调控,以此提高建设用地利用效率和控制区域建设用地总量;(4)改革土地管理的体制、机制以及财税制度,构建地方政府保护耕地、高效利用建设用地的长效机制。研究结论:优化产业结构、提高土地利用效率、加大优质耕地保护力度、促进土地生态建设、加快土地管理体制机制改革是未来经济发达地区土地资源利用的战略重点。     

民族地区的矿产资源开发利用

民族地区的矿产资源开发多是当地经济的支柱产业,民族地区一般矿产资源丰富,但矿产资源开发利用的水平相对较低,资源优势没能很好地转化为经济优势。国家应在政策上对民族地区开发利用矿产资源予以扶持,加大民族地区矿产勘查投入,搞好先进技术和管理经验的输入,促进民族地区的矿产资源整合。     

高职文秘专业关键能力分解与学习领域构建

高职文秘专业关键能力包括沟通与协调能力、处理办公室日常事务能力、策划和组织商务活动和会议能力、围绕单位中心工作写出不同种类文书能力，其核心在于写做合一。这些关键能力可分解为商务文书写作、文书事务处理、活动策划与实施三大学习领域，进而形成具体的专业核心课程，达到培养高端技能型秘书人才的目的。     

Tail risk in emerging markets of Southeastern Europe

This article examines the left-tail behaviour of returns on stocks in Southeastern Europe (SEE). We apply conditional extreme value theory (EVT) approach on daily returns of six stock market indices from SEE between 2004 and 2013. Predictive performance of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) based on EVT is compared against several alternatives, such as historical simulation and analytical approach based on GARCH with a single conditional distribution. Model backtesting with daily returns shows that EVT-based models provide more reliable VaR and ES forecasts than the alternative models in all six markets. Unlike the alternatives, the EVT-based models cannot be rejected as VaR confidence level is increased. This emphasizes the importance of extreme events in SEE markets and indicates that the ability of a model to capture volatility clustering accurately is not sufficient for a correct assessment of risk in these markets.     

Gains from horizontal collaboration among ski areas

Ski areas are known to expand by linking their lifts to neighbouring systems. Based on data from approximately 250 winter sport destinations in Austria, pooled over the years 1998–2014, this study explores the effects of such horizontal collaboration on the number of overnights stays in the area. A difference-in-differences (DID) approach combined with propensity score matching shows that new lift-linkages or expansions lead to a consolidation in the number of overnight stays at a level 12 per cent higher than before the introduction of the lift-link. However, there is a certain degree of heterogeneity in the causal effects. Satellite ski areas, remote villages and those who combine lift-linking with new connecting slopes benefit the most. More recent lift-linkages seem to lead to smaller gains than those established in the early years.