城市桥梁结构安全监测方法

城市桥梁是城市交通体系重要组成部分,文章依据桥梁退化模式,结合桥梁病害的发展表现,提出一套简便易行、安全可靠的城市桥梁结构周期性安全监测方法,以供同行参考。     

On the selection of forecasting models

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of these methods in terms of their ability to mimimize the true out-of-sample PMSE, allowing for possible misspecification of the forecast models under consideration. We show that under suitable conditions the IC method will be consistent for the best approximating model among the candidate models. In contrast, under standard assumptions the SOOS method, whether based on recursive or rolling regressions, will select overparameterized models with positive probability, resulting in excessive finite-sample PMSEs.     

保险业增长预测中数量经济模型的应用研究

科学合理地预测保险业的发展状况，对于明确保险业未来的总体发展目标和战略重点。促进保险业持续健康发展，具有十分重大的意义。本文以内蒙古自治区保险业为例，通过对2006年-2010年内蒙古自治区保费收入的增长预测，提出了综合运用多元线性回归模型和霍尔特指数平滑法进行保险增长预测的预测方法。与传统预测方法相比，它能更好地保证保险增长预测的精确度。     

A TEST OF A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM STOCK OPTION PRICING MODEL

An empirical version of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985a) call option pricing model is derived, assuming execution price uncertainty in the options market. the pricing restrictions come in the form of moment conditions in the option pricing error. These can be estimated and tested using a version of the method of simulated moments (MSM). Simulation estimates, obtained by discretely approximating the risk-neutral processes of the underlying stock price and the interest rate, are substituted for analytically unknown call prices. the asymptotics and other aspects of the MSM estimator are discussed. the model is tested on transaction prices at 15-minute intervals. It substantially outperforms the Black-Scholes model. the empirical success of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model implies that the continuous-time interest rate implicit in synchronous transaction quotes of 90-day Treasury-bill futures contracts is an-albeit noisy-proxy for the instantaneous volatility on common stock. the process of the instantaneous volatility is found to be close to nonstationary. It is well approximated by a heteroskedastic unit-root process. With this approximation, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model only slightly overprices long-maturity options.     

长三角地区投资环境评价研究

长三角地区是我国经济最活跃的地区之一.文章选取了长三角地区的16个城市作为研究对象,提出了投资环境评价指标,并运用粗糙集理论和特征向量法对该地区的投资环境进行评价,最后得出16个城市的得分和排序.     

全流通下我国证券市场IPO抑价的实证研究

文章以实行全流通发行并上市的国内股票为样本，使用Newey-West提出的异方差和自相关一致协方差回归方法．对影响IPO抑价的因素进行实证分析，并提出了降低中国IPO抑价的建议。     

所得税会计准则:理论与实务角度的思考

所得税会计准则是会计准则中的难点,其原因在于,所得税会计方法的设计原理涉及财务会计与税务会计的差异及其处理原则。从财务会计与所得税会计理论基础的分歧,推演资产负债表债务法的会计处理原理,有助于深入理解、正确执行《企业会计准则第18号——所得税》,并正确处理其与所得税会计的关系。     

三羟甲基丙烷(TMP)生产及市场概况

本文介绍TMP的市场应用，比较了TMP两种主要生产工艺的特点，提出了我国TMP近期发展建议。／     

Teaching Managers to Respond Ethically to Organizational Crises: an inquiry into the case method

Many managers now routinely receive training in business ethics using the case method. However the efficacy of this training has not been studied. Organizational crises, in the form of cases which present managers with ethical dilemmas, are commonly used to illustrate principles in business ethics courses. As illustrated in the classroom, these organizational ethical crises often result in severe financial consequences for the organization involved such as litigation or bankruptcy. The present study assessed the potential of the case method for teaching managers to respond ethically to organizational crisis. The author also assessed the role of organizational and ideographic factors in determining which managers would choose to act. Managers who had received classroom training in ethical case analysis were compared to those who had not. The majority in both groups of managers chose to take action when confronted with ethical dilemmas. However, managers who had received ethical training were more likely to act in some ethical situations than managers who had not. The ethical culture of an organization and the gender of the managers was also found to influence managerial action in response to ethical dilemmas.     

汇率风险套期比率确定方法的比较与评析

套期比率确定方法可大致分为基于回归技术和基于均值/方差理论的套期比率确定方法两类。采用新的计量分析工具来研究不完备市场中的套期保值,以及带“摩擦”的金融市场中的套期保值,将会成为现代套期保值理论新的理论领域。