中国出口技术复杂度真的赶上发达国家了吗

使用HS(1992)六位数分类商品贸易数据,从"出口重叠指数"、出口商品"相对平均单位价值"、不同技术层面上的出口商品"相对平均单位价值"三个方面,以部分发达国家为比较对象,实证考察了中国出口技术复杂度变动趋势。结果发现,与现有大多研究结论不同:中国出口技术复杂度与发达国家相比,尚存一定差距,特别是在高技术密集型出口产品领域,差距较大,而目前对发达国家的追赶上,主要表现在中等技术密集型产品领域。中国出口品的"专业化"既没有与发达国家"趋同",其技术复杂度也未赶上发达国家,中国出口增长不会导致发达国家所谓"工资收入不平等"和"贸易条件恶化";立足现实比较优势,顺应国际分工发展大势,应是未来一段时间内中国进一步提升出口技术复杂度的出发点。     

Endogenous business cycles and dynamic inefficiency

This paper explores how the occurrence of local indeterminacy and endogenous business cycles relates to dynamic inefficiency, as defined by Malinvaud (1953), Phelps (1965) and Cass (1972). We follow Reichlin (1986) and Grandmont (1993) by considering a two-period overlapping generations model of capital accumulation with labor–leisure choice into the first-period of an agent's life and consumption in both periods. We first show that local indeterminacy and Hopf bifurcation are necessarily associated with a capital–labor ratio that is, at steady state, larger than the Golden Rule level. Consequently, paths converging asymptotically towards the steady state are shown to be dynamically inefficient, as there always exists another trajectory that starts with the same initial conditions and produces more aggregate consumption at all future dates. More surprising, however, is our main result showing that stable orbits, generated around a dynamically inefficient steady state through a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, may, in contrast, be dynamically efficient.     

Are Family Transfers Crowded Out by Public Transfers?

We give an account of an overlapping–generations experiment with multiple families in which voluntary transfers can take the form of support to the elderly or grants to children. Support to the old is a purely intergenerational (intra–family) transfer, whereas grants to children also involve an element of intra–generational (inter–family) redistribution through a compulsory pension system. Our data show that higher compulsory inter–family transfers lead subjects to place relatively more emphasis on support instead of grants: grants are crowded out, but support is not significantly affected. The efficiency of voluntary transfers increases, however. Furthermore, if subjects give transfers, they do not use tokens of direct reciprocity; evidence of indirect reciprocity in transfer behavior can only be obtained for the case where compulsory transfers are high.
JEL classification : C 91; H 55     

对江苏职业教育实施学制分段的探析

2012年底,江苏省人民政府颁发[2012]194号颁布文件,从八个方面二十个内容来全面提升江苏职业教育的教学质量,其中,通过优化人才培养方案实施学制分段改革是最重要的改革。本文阐述了对实施学制分段改革必要性、重要性认识;对实施学制分段执行的科学性、可行性认识;对实施学制分段操作的艰巨性、配套性认识。学制分段改革意义深刻,影响深远。     

Bringing product and consumer ecosystems to the strategic forefront

The widespread adoption of technology and electronic media has dramatically altered the set of products consumers compare before making a purchase decision. Online platforms have succeeded at drawing linkages among products by highlighting those that are preferred, evaluated, or purchased together. However, despite the increase in both product and customer inter-connectedness across markets, managers continue to make decisions based largely on the dynamics of competition within narrow product categories. In this article, we raise the call for a migration from a category-focused mindset to an ecosystem-focused strategic mindset that acknowledges and accounts for the network of related or unrelated entities that a specific product resides within. We illustrate the importance of this shift using examples of preference, choice, and customer networks from popular online platforms. We then discuss the impact of the shift in strategic mindset toward ecosystems on competitive structure analysis, market research, brand footprint analysis, intra-band ecosystems, promotion planning, new product development, customer valuation, strategic alliances, and market segmentation.     

Pollution,Private Investment in Healthcare,and Environmental Policy*

In this paper, we demonstrate that, in a two‐period overlapping‐generations model, the relationship between environmental taxation and economic activity (output level and growth) has an inverted‐U shape when we take into account the detrimental impact of pollution on health and the individual decision of each working‐age agent to improve her health. We also demonstrate that the link between environmental tax and lifetime welfare also has an inverted‐U shape, and that a tighter environmental policy might enhance economic activity while reducing steady‐state lifetime welfare. Finally, we investigate the social optimum and the determinants of the optimal environmental tax.     

Like Father,Like Son: Inheriting and Bequeathing

This paper incorporates indirect reciprocal behavior in the context of bequeathing decisions into an otherwise standard OLG model. We provide conditions for the existence of a unique steady state with operative bequests. Contrary to standard OLG models, we show that taking into account such behavioral interactions allows one to rationalize both an increasing and U‐shaped pattern of the inheritance to GDP ratio over time, consistent with recent empirical evidence. Moreover, the model predicts a nonlinear (U‐shaped) relationship between the size of an unfunded social security program and the long‐run stock of per capita capital, which in turn provides a novel explanation of the inconclusive empirical findings on the relationship between social security, savings and long‐run growth. Ricardian equivalence is shown to hold in a special case of the model     

Variance Estimation of Imputed Estimators of Change for Repeated Rotating Surveys

A common problem in survey sampling is to compare two cross‐sectional estimates for the same study variable taken from two different waves or occasions. These cross‐sectional estimates often include imputed values to compensate for item non‐response. The estimation of the sampling variance of the estimator of change is useful to judge whether the observed change is statistically significant. Estimating the variance of a change is not straightforward because of the rotation in repeated surveys and imputation. We propose using a multivariate linear regression approach and show how it can be used to accommodate the effect of rotation and imputation. The regression approach gives a design‐consistent estimation of the variance of change when the sampling fraction is small. We illustrate the proposed approach using random hot‐deck imputation, although the proposed estimator can be implemented with other imputation techniques.     

GL-03垂直段水冷壁安装

基于陕西府谷清水川煤电一体化项目电厂二期(2×1000MW)工程总体建设要求,分析#4机组锅炉水冷壁设计垂直管屏与螺旋管圈联合布置情况,明确垂直段水冷壁施工方案,并重点分析安装过程中的改进措施和注意事项,以供同行参阅。