Gold price dynamics and the role of uncertainty

This study focuses on the dynamics of the gold price against bonds, stocks and exchange rates based on a disaggregation of the underlying relationships across different frequencies applying a wavelet decomposition. To analyze joint extreme movements (i.e. tail dependence), we adopt a copula approach, which helps us to assess the dependence between the returns of gold and other assets in calm and turmoil market times and therefore the hedge and safe haven functions of gold. We also examine whether gold prices are directly affected by changes in macroeconomic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and/or CPI forecasters disagreement. Analyzing data for nine economies for a sample period starting in 1985, we find that the role of gold changes significantly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Gold is unable to serve as a hedge or safe haven in the classical sense while the findings for the period prior to 2008 mostly suggest that gold is able to shield investors. Uncertainty measures display a surprising and time-varying relationship with the path of the gold price. While economic policy uncertainty is positively correlated with gold price changes, macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty among forecasters are both negatively related to gold price changes.     

Shrouding Add‐On Information: An Experimental Study*

We explore how increased competition affects firms’ obfuscation strategies in a laboratory experiment. Firms sell a base good and an add‐on product. Besides choosing the base‐good price, sellers take an action that mimics the effects of shrouding the add‐on product. Shrouding is an equilibrium but an unshrouding equilibrium coexists. In our experiment, more competition matters, in that only duopolistic markets are frequently shrouded whereas four‐firm markets are not. With repeated interaction, shrouding rates do not increase. However, the opportunities to shroud facilitate tacit collusion on the base‐good price for the duopolies: the unshrouding equilibrium serves as a credible punishment if deviations occur.     

Bilateral Opportunism in Buyer–supplier Partnerships

ABSTRACT

Purpose

Literature analyzes interorganizational relationships mostly from a relational perspective by emphasizing partnerships’ positive aspects. Yet business reality is often less romantic and more opportunistic. Especially within the automotive industry opportunistic behaviors often cause extreme reactions in both partners, resulting in poisoned relationships. This study examines the effects of bilateral opportunism between buyers and suppliers on both partners’ relationship induced financial performance, using an automotive industrial setting of new product development (NPD) partnerships. Furthermore, we evaluate the “opportunistic fit” between both partners to assess whether partnerships are characterized by opportunistic parity or unilateral domination.     

Disclosure as a tool in stakeholder relations management: a longitudinal study on the Port of Rotterdam

This study applies stakeholder management principles to the port domain. We provide a conceptual framework for evaluating the communication strategies a (landlord) Port Authority (PA) relies on in the management of its relevant stakeholders and the adoption of disclosure to critical issues. The theoretical arguments are supported by empirical evidences from the Port of Rotterdam (PoR), i.e. a major port which leverages disclosure to successfully manage stakeholders and support the implementation of corporate strategy. The research questions are addressed using a content analysis on the annual reports (ARs) of PoR in the period 2000–2012. The overall research design enables the investigation of PA disclosure as a tool for managing the evolving interests of stakeholders from a longitudinal perspective. The PoR case shows that the relative importance of topics reported in the ARs change over time, as a result of external pressures and internal key events. The outcomes demonstrate the growing attention of PoR on topics relevant to the broader community (e.g. environment and safety/security) after a period characterised by a prominent focus on financial and governance issues. Besides, key breakthrough forces stimulating the shifts in landlord communication strategies are identified and discussed. Finally, by suggesting an indirect approach to evaluate how PA prioritises its salient stakeholders, the paper adds to extant port literature and brings methodological implications.     

Tail dependence between gold and sectorial stocks in China: perspectives for portfolio diversification

This article analyzes the relationship between gold quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese sectorial stocks from 2009 to 2015. Using different copulas, our results show that there is weak but significant tail dependence between gold and Chinese sectorial stock returns. This means that the dependence between extreme movements of the two assets is not pronounced and confirms the role of gold as a safe haven asset. Based on analyzing the efficient frontier, CCC-GARCH optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness, we further show that adding gold into Chinese stock portfolios can help to reduce their risk. Gold appears to be the most efficient diversifier for stocks of the materials sector and the less efficient for the utilities sector. As a robustness check, we also compare gold to oil and indicate that gold is more efficient than oil in the diversification of Chinese stock portfolios.

     

Improving footprint calculations of small open economies: combining local with multi-regional input–output tables

In a small, open and resource-poor economy, import and export dependency have an ever-growing impact on local policy decisions, which makes local (environmental) policy-makers increasingly depend on global data. This increases the interest in models that link local production and consumption data to global production, trade and environmental data. The recent increase in availability of global environmentally extended multi-regional input-output tables (EE-MRIO tables) provides an opportunity to link them with existing local environmentally extended input-output tables (EE-RIO tables). These combined tables make it possible (1) to analyse the links between local and global production and consumption and (2) to study global value chains, material use and environmental impacts simultaneously. However, estimations using input-output (I–O) analyses contain errors due to imperfect databases. In this article the magnitude of specification, aggregation and time errors are estimated and compared. The results show the need to combine local datasets with multi-regional ones and show that highest detailed (country and sector levels) as well as time series of I–O tables are the way forward for using I–O analyses in local policy-making. The paper provides guidance on trading off investments in model adoption and/or extension and the reliability of estimation results.     

Equally important criteria and demanding aggregation

Within the class of weighted averages of ordered measurements on criteria of ‘equal importance’, we discuss aggregators that help assess to what extent ‘most’ criteria are satisfied, or a ‘good performance across the board’ is attained. All aggregators discussed are compromises between the simple mean and the very demanding minimum score. The weights of the aggregators are described in terms of the convex polytopes as induced by the characteristics of the aggregators, such as concavity. We take the barycentres of the polytopes as representative weights.     

Money Allocation to Out-of-Home Leisure Activities and the Organization of These Activities in Time and Space

Monetary budgets influence activity participation and related travel as they demarcate limits on how people organize their activities in time and space. In this paper, we are interested in money allocation to out-of-home leisure activities and how this is affected by duration, sociodemographics, and time-location variables. Analyses were carried out by applying a seemingly unrelated regression model to a leisure activity data set. The analyses revealed that expenditures for out-of-home leisure activities are influenced by the variables mentioned above. Moreover, the results indicate that there is a substitution between expenditure of each activity.     

Exploring the use of travel information – identifying contextual market segmentation in Seoul, Korea

As the amount of information is rapidly growing, and ubiquitous urban environments are emerging, the question which kind of information to provide is a major challenge for commercial and public travel-information service providers alike. This paper reports the analyses of recent data, collected in Metropolitan Seoul, about the acquisition of travel information. The study applies CHAID analysis to find homogeneous segments in travel information acquisition. Findings indicate that contextual variables are crucial to explain information acquisition behaviour, depending on decision context. The implication is that both socioeconomic and contextual variables are important to better understand the acquisition (and provision) of travel information. The results have important implications for managers and policy-makers, in particular in the way they respond to dynamic, contextual market segmentation.