Systemic event prediction by an aggregate early warning system: An application to the Czech Republic

This work develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events over a short horizon of six quarters and a long horizon of 12 quarters on a panel of 14 countries, both advanced and developing. First, we build a financial stress index to identify the starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Second, early warning indicators for the assessment and prediction of systemic risk are selected in a two-step approach; we find relevant prediction horizons for each indicator by a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful indicators. Finally, we observe the performance of the constructed EWS over both horizons on the Czech data and find that the model over the long horizon outperforms the EWS over the short horizon. For both horizons, out-of-sample probability estimates do not deviate substantially from their in-sample estimates, indicating a good out-of-sample performance for the Czech Republic.     

High-Performance HR Practices,Work Stress and Quit Intentions in the Public Health Sector: Does person–organization fit matter?

Drawing on the attraction–selection–attrition (ASA) framework, this paper examines a mechanism, namely person–organization (P–O) fit, through which high-performance HR practices (HPHRPs) affect two negative employee outcomes: work-related stress and quit intentions. Using a sample of Egyptian public health sector workers, a mediation model is tested empirically using structural equation modelling. The study results show that HPHRPs positively affected P–O fit, which in turn had significant negative associations with work stress and quit intentions. P–O fit also explained a high proportion of mediation in the relationship between HPHRP and both outcomes.     

Creating Shopper Value: Co-Creation Roles,In-Store Self-Service Technology Use,and Value Differentiation

This study examines how retailers can use self-service technologies (SST) to increase shopper satisfaction. Using a survey of 188 consumers of a new self-service kiosk launch within a convenience-store (c-store) setting, we examine how such retailers might influence shopper's perceptions of value by better involving customers in the service delivery experience. Our proposed model links classic service operations and marketing design insights to the service-dominant logic perspective of service value co-creation. We find that shoppers perceive enhanced value creation from the new SST when they feel comfortable in their roles and the surrounding service design supports those roles.     

Achievements and gaps in tef productivity improvement practices in the marginal areas of Northern Ethiopia: implications for future research directions

Tef is the most important crop in Ethiopia and is well-adapted to growing environments, but grain yields are low. The government is therefore promoting the adoption of improved varieties, inorganic fertilizers and new planting techniques. This study gathered information on the use of new agronomic practices and barriers to their adoption through a semi-structured questionnaire administered to 60 farmers or respondents from each of 4 districts of Tigray region in northern Ethiopia viz Laelay-Maichew, Medebay-Zana, Ahferom and Alamata. Data were coded and analysed using SPSS software. Except for animal feed and crop rotation, there were significant differences between districts in the relative importance of several criteria for different uses. Improved varieties were used by the majority of respondents in all districts and fertilizers in all except Alamata where severe moisture stress dictated the choice of variety and reduced fertilizer application. Weed control was mainly by hand except in Alamata where chemical control was common because of the predominance of broad-leaved weeds. Transplanting maximized the yield of tef, but a cost–benefit analysis showed that row sowing was more profitable. The study concluded that new varieties better adapted to the likelihood of reduced rainfall and that respond efficiently to fertilizer inputs need to be developed. Until suitable technologies are available, high labour costs would in part dictate some agronomic practices, even if this led to lower yields.     

岩石峰值应力前后声发射特性研究

采用TAW-2000D微机控制电液伺服岩石三轴试验机和SDAES型数字声发射仪组成的动态测试系统,对云南大红山铜矿白云岩进行了单轴压缩条件下的声发射试验,研究岩石在峰值应力前后声发射特性。试验结果表明:加载早期就有声发射活动,岩样在试验接近峰值强度时单位时间内的应力增长速度减小、声发射事件率出现明显下降,即出现相对平静期,峰值强度后的声发射现象仍然明显。     

Impact of Stressful Situations on Salespersons' Gestures

Interest: This research analyses the influence of situations on salespersons’ gestures and behaviors. This research contributes to this underresearched field by exploring the impact of stressful versus nonstressful situations on salespersons’ personal behavior.

Methods: This research is based on 1,205 gestures observed during 382 sales calls that averaged 11 minutes with 382 salespersons. Half were in stressful situations, and half were in nonstressful situations. This study focuses on pharmaceutical products (drugs) in the medical field, with 95 doctors, 6 judges, 304 average performing salespersons, 39 high performers, and 39 low performers. This study shows how salespersons’ behaviors vary depending on stressful and nonstressful situations. This research also articulates a new field of sales research that is understudied by researchers and suggests new training trends in sales management.

Objective: The objective is to answer questions such as “Does stress influence salespersons’ behavior, and what are the gestures most affected by such situations?” To examine the effects of training on gestures, an experiment with 97 salespersons was conducted during a sales training session. This experiment measured whether salespersons trained on gestures behaved differently than those who were untrained.

Results: In general, stressful or nonstressful situations caused real differences in gestural behavior. In particular, the best salespersons performed the largest number of gestures during stressful situations. For example, stressful situations increased the mechanical or emotional gestures in leg movements or the number of glances.     

International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on global economic activity. Our analysis is based on country-specific monthly financial stress indices (FSIs) over the sample period 1970–2012 for 20 major economies. First, we show that co-movement between the FSIs increases during major financial crises and towards the end of our sample period. Second, we show that the risk of large financial stress spillovers to an economy increases with its level of economic openness. Third, we show – using a global VAR (GVAR) model – that (i) a financial stress shock in the US quickly transmits internationally, (ii) financial stress shocks have lagged but persistent negative effects on economic activity, and (iii) that a negative US demand shock induces only limited financial stress on a global scale. Finally, we show that spillovers of financial stress run mainly from advanced to emerging economies and not in the opposite direction.     

The Coordination Role of Stress Tests in Bank Risk‐Taking

We examine whether stress tests distort banks' risk‐taking decisions. We study a model in which a regulator may choose to rescue banks in the event of concurrent bank failures. Our analysis reveals a novel coordination role of stress tests. Disclosure of stress‐test results informs banks of the failure likelihood of other banks, which can reduce welfare by facilitating banks' coordination in risk‐taking. However, conducting stress tests also enables the regulator to more effectively intervene banks, coordinating them preemptively into taking lower risks. We find that, if the regulator has a strong incentive to bail out, stress tests improve welfare, whereas if the regulator's incentive to bail out is weak, stress tests impair welfare.     

Employee performance,well‐being,and differential effects of human resource management subdimensions: Mutual gains or conflicting outcomes?

The human resource management (HRM) literature supports the idea that coherent systems of HRM practices can induce attitudinal effects when perceived subjectively by employees. Recently, scholars have proposed that subdimensions of HRM systems exist and account for variance in outcomes. This study explores differential effects of three subdimensions of HRM systems (skill‐, motivation‐, and opportunity‐enhancing HRM practices) on employee innovative behaviours and well‐being. Our predictions are based on the mutual gains perspective, which specifies positive relationships between HRM practices and employee performance, and the conflicting outcomes perspective that links HRM practices to higher job demands and stress. Using data from the Finnish 2012 Practices of Working Life Survey, we find support for both the mutual gains and conflicting outcomes perspectives; however, we also show that the effects of the subsets of HRM practices are heterogeneous.     

连续钢箱梁桥抗倾覆稳定探讨

通过互通立交(27+41+27)m连续钢箱梁工程,对连续钢箱梁进行计算分析。本次分析采用MIDAS软件建立模型,考虑钢箱梁在最不利荷载组合下的最大内力,进行结构应力和挠度分析。