商业银行总体经济资本测度方法比较研究

总体经济资本测度是商业银行实施《新巴塞尔资本协议》的关键。本文比较研究了商业银行总体经济资本的两种测度方法：资产波动法和收益波动法,分别介绍了两种测度方法的基本原理、计算步骤以及各自的应用范围和侧重点,并对两种方法相对应的经济资本加总技术,如搭积木法、椭圆分布法、Copula连接函数方法、多因子模型和混合多因子模型等进行了比较研究。     

中国技术进步贡献率的度量与分解

本文在分析索洛余值法缺陷的基础上,以新增长理论为理论背景,结合中国经济发展的现实,将产业结构变动、资本空间集聚、人力资本积累等因素引入技术进步贡献率的计量模型,使技术进步贡献率的度量更接近真实的技术进步情况;进而利用新的技术进步贡献率计量方法重新测算了1987—2003年间中国的技术进步状况,发现中国技术进步贡献率已开始出现稳步增长的趋势。     

珠三角金融集聚与经济增长

金融发展与经济增长关系问题的研究越来越深入．且现代金融企业越来越多的集中于某一城市和区域。本文从金融集聚角度分析金融发展与经济增长关系,回顾了国内外关于金融集聚与经济增长的研究状况,对珠三角金融集聚情况与经济增长的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,珠三角的金融业集聚程度远远高于全国平均水平,具有明显的集聚优势;且珠三角各地区的金融集聚是经济增长的重要影响因素。基于此结论,提出进一步优化金融结构,促进珠三角经济发展的建议。     

The Disposition of Audit‐Detected Misstatements: An Examination of Risk and Reward Factors and Aggregation Effects*

While professional standards indicate that auditors have the responsibility to both detect and report material errors, empirical evidence shows that auditors waive approximately 50 percent of material errors (Wright and Wright 1997). Unlike prior research that has examined factors that may affect auditors' decisions to waive single material misstatements, the current study examines auditors' propensity to waive proposed adjusting journal entries (henceforth PAJEs) that exceed materiality, either individually or in aggregate, under several different aggregation contexts. These contexts are represented in the form of different cases that vary in terms of the materiality and income direction of the individual and aggregate PAJEs. The current paper posits that auditors will be more likely to waive PAJEs in excess of materiality (i.e., make a “non‐GAAS” decision) when there is potential reward for doing so or when there is little litigation risk from doing so. The case decisions of 155 audit partners and managers indicate that they are not affected by potential reward (Client's Relative Fees), but are affected by potential risk (the Client's Financial Health, the PAJE's Subjectivity, and the PAJEs' Aggregate Directional Effect on Income). However, these factors are not equally influential across all aggregation contexts. Additionally, auditors are more likely to make non‐GAAS decisions when they are evaluating immaterial PAJEs that aggregate to a material level than when they are evaluating a single material PAJE.     

DISAGGREGATING INPUT–OUTPUT MODELS WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

Disaggregating a sector within the Leontief input–output (IO) framework is not a straightforward task since there is more than one possibility for the unknown technical coefficients of the disaggregated IO table, and more information than what is embodied in the aggregated IO table is thus required. This paper presents a methodology for disaggregating sectors into an arbitrary number of new sectors when the only available information about the newly formed sectors is their output weights. A random walk algorithm is used to explore the polytope containing the admissible combinations for the unknown technical coefficients of the disaggregated IO table. These combinations are then used to construct the probability distribution of the coefficients of the inverse Leontief matrix. The methodology is illustrated by disaggregating the electricity production sector of China's 2007 IO table and by looking at the probability distribution of the CO₂ emission intensity factors of the sectors of the economy.     

科技型人才聚集系统组织化与劣质化机理研究

复杂环境下,科技型人才聚集效应是组织创新实现的基本途径。以已有研究为基础,分别界定了科技型人才聚集系统及其组织化与劣质化概念,探讨了科技型人才聚集系统熵值变化的影响因素。借鉴管理熵、管理耗散结构理论,构建了开放条件下科技型人才聚集系统熵值模型与人才聚集效应模型。在此基础上,引入边际熵值与边际负熵概念,分析了科技型人才聚集系统组织化和劣质化实现的作用机理。     

Microeconometric models of tourists'' destination choice

The focus of this paper is on the microeconometric analysis of spatial choice in a cross section. Nested multinomial logit models are used to analyze the determinants of individual choice among destinations and vacation activities. Cramer and Ridder's likelihood ratio test for pooled alternatives in multinomial logit models is sequentially applied in order to determine the adequate aggregation level of the mutually exclusive alternatives in the choice set. The specification test suggested by Chesher and Santos Silva (1992) is used to investigate whether or not the IIA proposition is fulfilled within the assumed choice subsets.     

河北省产业集聚促进城市化发展机制研究

产业集聚是加快城市化进程的重要动力,是城市提高质量的物质保障。本文对产业集聚促进城市化进程的理论进行了研究,实证了产业集聚对城市化的作用并分析出产业集聚促进城市化存在的问题,提出基于促进产业集聚发展加快城市化进程的路径。     

“淘宝村”农户电商创业集聚现象的成因探究——基于沙集镇和颜集镇的调研

文章以江苏省沙集镇和颜集镇"淘宝村"为样本区,基于实地问卷调研与访谈,运用改进的AHP层次分析法,对两类具有不同产业基础的农村电商创业集聚现象进行了分析。研究结果表明：一般的"淘宝村"现象可通过文章构建的基于社会资本、经营条件、市场环境的理论框架来解释,但同样是"农户+电商平台+家庭作坊+现代物流"的发展模式,产业基础不同的两类"淘宝村"却具有差异化的形成机制,沙集镇"淘宝村"是在原始产业发展遭遇瓶颈之际,依托网络营销逐步发展了家具制造产业,充分发挥社会资本的价值,以邻里交流、电商平台、先锋示范、操作技术等因素作为电商创业集聚的关键动力,实现农村产业转型与升级;颜集镇"淘宝村"凭借原始特色产业,通过"互联网+农业"产业融合推动了花木行业的扩大,利好的市场环境很大程度上促进了电商创业集聚,依靠政策支持、产业基础、支部带动、操作技术等关键因素,打造了农业复合型发展典范。