Large time and small noise asymptotic results for mean reverting diffusion processes with applications

Summary. We use the theory of large deviations to investigate the large time behavior and the small noise asymptotics of random economic processes whose evolutions are governed by mean-reverting stochastic differential equations with (i) constant and (ii) state dependent noise terms. We explicitly show that the probability is exponentially small that the time averages of these process will occupy regions distinct from their stable equilibrium position. We also demonstrate that as the noise parameter decreases, there is an exponential convergence to the stable position. Applications of large deviation techniques and public policy implications of our results for regulators are explored. Received: December 7, 1998; revised version: October 25, 1999     

Learning buyers' valuation distribution in posted-price selling

Summary. For his proof of the existence of a general competitive equilibrium Abraham Wald assumed a strictly pseudomonotone inverse market demand function or, equivalently, that market demand satisfies the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference. It is well known that more recent existence theorems do not need this assumption. In order to clarify its role in Wald's proof, the question of existence of an equilibrium for a modified version of the Walras-Cassel model is reduced to the solvability of a related variational inequality problem. In general, the existence of a solution to such a problem can only be proved by advanced mathematical methods. We provide an elementary induction proof which demonstrates the essence of Abraham Wald's famous contribution. Received: July 22, 1997; revised version: December 11, 1997     

The key issues and procedures of industrial marketing research

Industrial marketing research has failed to receive its due attention in marketing books and journals, even though the volume of transactions in industrial goods and services is more than twice that of consumer goods and services. This article provides a systematic and wide ranging review of the issues, procedures, and opportunities found in industrial marketing research.     

Postcard reminders versus replacement questionnaires and mail survey response rates from a professional population

Nonresponse is a major problem in the use of mail questionnaires. The great number of variables that can influence response rates has resulted in an extensive literature on the subject, but a literature that is restricted to few examples of replication. Moreover, many of the studies reported in the literature were not conducted under controlled conditions. This article presents the results of a study using a single-factor experimental design to test the efficacy of two different follow-up forms in improving response rates. The results indicate that replacement questionnaires are to be preferred over postcard reminders when using a one-time follow-up in surveying a professional population.     

Teaching College Economics in the High Schools: The Role of Concurrent Enrollment Programs

The authors examine concurrent enrollment programs (CEP) as an effective means of teaching college economics in high school. They describe the establishment of the National Alliance of Concurrent Enrollment Partnerships to set national standards for CEP. They also investigate the performance of high school students taking the Syracuse University one-semester micro/macro principles of economics course through its CEP, Project Advance, on the Test of Economic Literacy. CEP students average nearly 1 percentage point higher than do the advanced placement/honors economics group and score considerably better in fundamentals and international economics. By cognitive levels, CEP students score over 4 percentage points in the knowledge area and exhibit better performance on application questions.     

Sophisticated imitation in cyclic games

Individuals belonging to two large populations are repeatedly randomly matched to play a cyclic game such as Matching Pennies. Between matching rounds, individuals sometimes change their strategy after observing a finite sample of other outcomes within their population. Individuals from the same population follow the same behavioral rule. In the resulting discrete time dynamics the unique Nash equilibrium is unstable. However, for sample sizes greater than one, we present an imitation rule where long run play cycles closely around the equilibrium.     

Schumpeter and the `Schmollerprogramm': integrating theory and history in the analysis of economic development

This essay addresses the historical and institutional aspects of Schumpeter's thought. It suggests that Schumpeter prepared a pluralist research agenda, formulated in accordance with the conceptual perspective of the German Historical School, as presented by major scholars such as Schmoller, Sombart, Spiethoff and Max Weber. Schumpeter's notion of development, with its emphasis on the correspondence of economic and socio-cultural evolution, is therefore to be viewed in the context of the comprehensive Schmollerian approach. Moreover the ethical-evolutionary components of Schmoller's ideas point at the vital role of the German Historical School in the elaboration of a modern evolutionary economics in Schumpeterian terms. The essay concludes that the Schmollerprogramm is going to inspire further developments in Schumpeterian economics, as the integration of theory and history continuously marks the research agenda of evolutionary approaches to economic development.     

The determinants of pharmaceutical research and development expenditures

Since the late 1970s, pharmaceutical R&D has grown at a rapid rate relative to sales and other variables. In this paper, we examine the determinants of pharmaceutical R&D using a pooled data sample of 11 major drug firms over the period 1974 to 1994. We find that expected returns and cash flows are important explanatory variables of firm research intensities during this period. This is consistent with our results for an earlier sample period characterized by very different growth patterns on R&D.     

More on phantom bidding

Summary. A phantom bidding model is analyzed for a sale auction. The following issues are addressed: the effects of phantom bidding on overall social welfare and buyers' profits. It is shown that social welfare may increase or decrease as the auctioneer switches from the fixed reserve price policy to phantom bidding. The buyers' profits will increase whenever social welfare increases. Received: November 4, 1998; revised version: February 8, 1999     

Destabilizing effects of a successful stabilization: a forward-looking explanation of the second Hungarian hyperinflation

Summary. The extreme severity of the second Hungarian hyperinflation is argued to be related to the unusual way in which the inflation was eventually stabilized. The historical features of this episode are represented in a general equilibrium model, which incorporates a transition from one monetary regime to another. During the inflation the government finances a fixed deficit with seigniorage revenue. After the stabilization the government budget is balanced and the central bank engages in a program of subsidized lending to the private sector. Stabilization is achieved by targeting a low inflation rate path through adjustments in the quantity of central bank lending. I show that under this stabilization policy (1) the dynamic equilibrium path of the economy is indeterminate and (2) arbitrarily high pre-stabilization inflation rates are possible. Received: November 5, 1998; revised version: November 30, 1998