消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线存在吗?——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

基于消费者责任角度,文章研究了我国消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线,并与生产的环境库兹涅茨曲线进行比较,通过理论分析和实证研究发现：污染转移是消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线和生产的环境库兹涅茨曲线形状产生差异的重要原因;消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线的形状因污染物的不同而发生变化;消费结构对消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线影响较大;高消费地区耐用品消费比重上升导致污染排放增加。     

Variations in farm consumption and their relationship to income: an empirical investigation of Illinois farm households

Empirical tests of household consumption have yielded mixed results regarding the validity of the life cycle/permanent income (LCPI) hypothesis. A significant problem with such studies is the difficulty in finding sufficient micro-level data on household expenditures. By using the recent rich quantity of such data in the Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) data for Illinois farms from 1995 to 2009, the study reported here for farm households should provide more consistent results regarding the LCPI hypothesis. Applying an empirical model based on the LCPI hypothesis, this article identifies the determinants of farm consumption and the relationship to income. This study provides evidence that current income changes are not significant in explaining the consumption changes of farm households, thus supporting the LCPI hypothesis for farm households.     

There and back again – estimating equivalence scales with measurement error

Using income satisfaction data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we find large differences in the equivalence weight of a partner when it is being estimated by direct and reverse regressions. We argue that neither of the two models will produce consistent estimates when there is stochastic error in satisfaction and measurement error in incomes. We propose a correction of mismeasured incomes using a constructed alternative income measure. The corrected results are relatively close to those obtained from direct regression. We do not find evidence that previous studies, using the direct regression method, severely suffer from measurement error in incomes.     

消费不足、投资过度与偏向性金融政策

自1996年以来,中国消费产出比与投资产出比分别经历着一降一升的过程,致使经济最终呈现了两个重要性特征：消费不足和投资过度。本文通过在动态随机一般均衡模型中,构建投资偏向性金融政策和内生化趋势性差异特征的方式,分析消费和投资经历的阶段性变化及两个特征的成因和后果。利用中国1996年1季度至2014年4季度的六组季度数据作为观测变量,采用贝叶斯方法估计模型参数,并利用脉冲响应和方差分解等方法分析议题。结果表明：（1）持续稳定有效的投资偏向性金融政策是促成消费产出比快速下降、投资产出比快速上升的主因,进而造成消费不足与投资过度;（2）生产技术进步不仅可以促使消费产出比上升,同时有效抑制了投资过度;（3）家户部门消费偏好的变化和投资的短期调整,是解释投资产出比和投资消费比波动的主因。为此,建立和完善市场化投资环境,促进创新活动,可以有效地抑制过度投资并提高消费产出比。本文研究对科学理解中国经济波动及变化趋势,实现平稳可持续发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。     

Service recommendations and customer evaluations in the international marketplace: Cultural and situational contingencies

As the international service market continues its phenomenal growth, understanding the nature of effective interpersonal interactions between service providers and their customers is increasingly important. However, cross-national theory and research on this topic remain limited. In response, the following study employs data from China and the United States to test whether the cultural congruency of benefits emphasized by the service provider interacts with the customer's value orientation and/or consumption objective to affect evaluations of service quality. Results indicate that the cultural congruency of provider recommendations affects evaluations. Preliminary evidence also suggests that this effect is moderated by consumption objective.     

Changing consumption patterns in rural Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Despite rapid urbanization, more than 75% of the people still live in rural areas. The density of the rural population is also one of the highest in the world. Being a poor and low‐income country, however, Bangladesh's main challenge is to eradicate poverty by increasing equitable income. The gross domestic product of Bangladesh is growing steadily, and the country has outperformed many low‐income countries in terms of several social indicators. Bangladesh has achieved the Millennium Development Goal of eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary school enrolment. A sharp decline in child and infant mortality rates, increased per capita income, and improved food security have placed Bangladesh on the track to achieving the status of a middle‐income country in the near future. All these developments have influenced the consumption patterns of the country. This study explored the consumption scenario of rural Bangladesh. Data were collected through direct observations and semi‐structured interviews. Information regarding the consumption of food, clothing, housing, education and medical facilities were collected, and qualitative methods were applied to the data analysis. The findings of this study suggested that the consumption patterns of rural Bangladeshis are changing over time along with economic and social development.     

农村居民消费缘何不足——基于消费过度敏感性假说的分析

本文结合经典的心理经验法则与LC-PIH模型,阐释了消费过度敏感性的内涵。运用可变参数模型对我国农村居民消费的过度敏感性进行检验,运用Granger因果检验分析引起这种消费变化行为的原因。实证结果显示:我国农村居民消费存在过度敏感性,农村居民消费对当期收入的依赖程度较高;宏观经济的变化所引起对未来收入及生存状况的不确定性是造成农村居民消费对当期收入的依赖程度较高的重要原因;利率也是从中长期影响农村居民消费变化的因素。     

压力利用率与锤耗的关系研究

主要从六面顶压机顶锤对合成块施压的过程中,合成块所承受压力的受力分析,研究压力变化对锤耗的影响,总结出合成块组装高度设计、试验的理论依据,提出了检验组装高度的技术指标,提高设计可靠性,缩短试验周期,减少生产过程中的顶锤消耗。     

THE STOCK MARKET, HOUSING AND CONSUMER SPENDING: A SURVEY OF THE EVIDENCE ON WEALTH EFFECTS

Abstract.  This paper examines the time-series and micro-econometric evidence on the relationship between stock and house prices and consumer spending. The time-series studies distinguish between short-run and long-run links between consumption, income and wealth. They allow us to identify which variables adjust to restore the long-run equilibrium in the case of a shock, and to determine the time taken by the adjustment process. The micro-econometric literature improves our understanding of the link between wealth and expenditure and distinguishes among the alternative hypotheses – of direct wealth effect, common causality and collateral channel – that have been proposed to explain this relationship. The relationship between wealth and consumer spending appears to be strong, but there is some disagreement as to its size and nature. Furthermore, there appear to be some important differences across countries, which should be allowed for by policy makers when appraising the policy implications of a change in asset prices.     

天津市能源消费与经济增长的互动机理及政策启示——基于8个高耗能行业的实证分析

从高耗能行业入手分析能源消费与经济增长的互动机理可以为天津市节能降耗战略提供科学依据.采用灰色关联度方法,分析了1996年-2006年间天津市高耗能行业能源消费与经济增长的互动作用机理,结果表明天津市高耗能行业的能源消费对经济增长具有重要的推动作用,且高新技术产业能源消费状况不客忽视.文章最后对天津市在"十一五"末完成规定的节能指标以及"十二五"的节能计划提出了有针对性的政策建议.