Affective responses to consumer situations

The behavioural perspective model of consumer choice (bpm) proposes three structural components of consumer situations from which consumers' verbal responses to consumption environments can be predicted. These are utilitarian reinforcement, informational reinforcement and behaviour setting scope. It is argued that pleasure, arousal and dominance, presented by Mehrabian and Russell as environmentally determined affective reactions, are respectively feasible verbal responses to these structural components. Consumers (N = 561) completed Mehrabian and Russell's measures of these affective reactions and of approach-avoidance for one of four ranges of verbally expressed consumption situations derived from the model. The results indicate that, for these theoretically grounded ranges of consumer situations, approach-avoidance is satisfactorily explained by pleasure, arousal and dominance. Further, mean differences in these affective variables between situations which, the bpm argues, show distinct patterns of reinforcement and behaviour setting scope are successfully predicted.     

Investment strategies by foreign automobile firms in China: A comparative study of Volkswagen,Honda, and Hyundai

The paper uses rolling sample tests to investigate time-varying calendar effects in the Chinese stock market, based on the GARCH (1, 1)-GED model. The Friday effect existed with low volatility at the early stage, but it seems to have disappeared since 1997. The positive Tuesday effect began to appear then. There is a small-firm January effect with high volatility. The turn-of-the month effect has also disappeared in the Chinese stock market since 1997.     

Macroeconomic implications of voucher privatization in a model with incomplete information

Voucher privatization implies a significant wealth transfer from state to private agents who, in turn, would increase consumption. This paper investigates the consequences of this wealth effect on the macroeconomic equilibrium in a high unemployment economy. The model builds on a two-stage sequential game between the government and private agents. We verify the existence of a pooling equilibrium in which private agents cannot guess whether a policy of fast privatization will be continued in the future or not. This configuration presents an endogenous probability of privatization slowdown; as a consequence, the wealth effect is moderated and the genuine fast privatizer government bears an “undue” credibility cost in terms of employment     

Asymmetry in the jump-size distribution of the S&P 500: Evidence from equity and option markets

This paper studies alternative distributions for the size of price jumps in the S&P 500 index. We introduce a range of new jump-diffusion models and extend popular double-jump specifications that have become ubiquitous in the finance literature. The dynamic properties of these models are tested on both a long time series of S&P 500 returns and a large sample of European vanilla option prices. We discuss the in- and out-of-sample option pricing performance and provide detailed evidence of jump risk premia. Models with double-gamma jump size distributions are found to outperform benchmark models with normally distributed jump sizes.     

Calibration to American options: numerical investigation of the de-Americanization method

American options are the reference instruments for the model calibration of a large and important class of single stocks. For this task, a fast and accurate pricing algorithm is indispensable. The literature mainly discusses pricing methods for American options that are based on Monte Carlo, tree and partial differential equation methods. We present an alternative approach that has become popular under the name de-Americanization in the financial industry. The method is easy to implement and enjoys fast run-times (compared to a direct calibration to American options). Since it is based on ad hoc simplifications, however, theoretical results guaranteeing reliability are not available. To quantify the resulting methodological risk, we empirically test the performance of the de-Americanization method for calibration. We classify the scenarios in which de-Americanization performs very well. However, we also identify the cases where de-Americanization oversimplifies and can result in large errors.     

我国玉米生产空间布局变迁及其影响因素分析

[目的]玉米是我国重要的粮食作物之一,玉米空间布局的变化对国内玉米市场的供求价格及供需关系产生影响之外,并在更深层次对我国玉米产业的发展产生影响。[方法]立足空间计量经济学的研究理论,文章首先应用全局Moran's I指数检验1997—2015年我国省域玉米种植面板数据的空间相关性,并进一步通过构建空间杜宾模型(SDM)实证分析我国玉米种植布局变化的影响因素。[结果]计量结果显示,我国玉米种植布局存在显著的空间正向相关性;农户的以往决策、农业技术、农村基础水利设施、市场粮食价格指数对我国省域玉米种植面积扩大有正向影响,其中技术和政策的空间溢出效应显著;各影响因素的局部性效应致使中国玉米种植布局发生变化。[结论]建议政府部门重视我国省域间玉米产业空间之间的联动性,出台差异化的玉米产业支持办法,稳定省域之间粮食的供求关系,切实做好跨区域粮食调配工作,实现我国粮食自给自足,保障粮食安全。     

基于Krashen监察模式的公安英语口语教学改革研究

为积极响应教育部加强大学英语教学改革的号召,进一步加快公安院校行业英语口语教学的改革步伐以提升公安院校学生听说能力,以Krashen监察模式理论为研究视角深入剖析公安英语教学的现状,从教改目标、思路及实施方法三方面论述了进行公安英语口语教学改革的可行性和实效性。     

抑制代理成本提升公司价值了吗？——来自沪、深两市非金融类A股上市公司的经验证据

以沪、深两市非金融类A股上市公司2005～2009年的混合数据为研究对象，运用双变量回归（bivariate regression）、复回归（multiple regression）及协方差回归（ANACOVA）等计量方法，实证考察权益代理成本与公司价值间的关联性。研究结果表明，当权益代理成本降低时，我国上市公司的市场价值（托宾Q值）和财务业绩（ROA）均得到显著提高；且在引入内外部监督机制、管理层激励机制及股权结构特征三重约束后，二者的反向关联性仍维持稳定。此结论为代理成本理论增添了新的经验证据，即提升上市公司自身价值，保障投资者权益的有效途径之一就是降低代理成本。     

独善其身还是兼济天下?——中国居民再分配偏好的实证研究

再分配偏好的提高反映出民众对当前收入分配状况的不满,本文致力于从个人利益和分配公平两个角度对中国居民的再分配偏好进行解释。根据Roemer的理论,本文从成功可控性的角度构造了反映居民分配公平观念的变量,并采用中国综合社会调查(2006)的微观调查数据和Ordered Probit模型,研究发现,个人利益论和分配公平论在中国都能得到实证支持,即中国居民的再分配偏好不但存在对自身利益的考虑,也有显著的追求分配公平的动机;同时,性别和受教育程度也是影响居民再分配偏好的因素。进一步分析表明上述结论具有良好的稳健性。总之,确保机会均等、维护分配公平对于降低居民再分配偏好具有十分重要的现实意义。     

准备金评估的随机性Munich链梯法及其改进——基于Bootstrap方法的实证分析

传统链梯法是未决赔款准备金评估最常用的确定性方法,Munich链梯法基于Mack模型的假设,利用已决赔款和已报案赔款的相关性调整进展因子,有效减少了链梯法分别基于已决赔款和已报案赔款得到的未决赔款准备金之间的差异。本文在系统介绍Munich链梯法的基础上,结合模型假设,提出了两种基于Bootstrap方法的随机性Munich链梯法,并通过精算实务中的数值实例应用R软件加以实证分析。本文的研究对保险公司准备金负债评估的准确性和充足性具有重要参考价值。