Technology diffusion and its effects on social inequalities

We develop a dynamic general-equilibrium framework in which growth is driven by skill-biased technology diffusion. The model incorporates leisure–labor decisions and human capital accumulation through education. We are able to reproduce the trends in income inequality and labor and skills supplies observed in the United States between 1969 and 1996. The paper also provides an explanation for why more individuals invest in human capital when the investment premium is going down, and why the skill-premium goes up when the skills supply is increasing.     

Consumers’ response to the EU Quality policy allowing for heterogeneous preferences

Using dry-cured ham as an anchor product, consumers’ preferences for EU Quality Certification schemes, region of origin and price have been investigated with conjoint analysis. In order to achieve this aim, a mixed rank-ordered logit which allows for the investigation of heterogeneous preferences and their sources has been estimated. In particular, we have analysed to what extent consumers’ socio-demographic traits affect their price-sensitiveness and whether consumers’ sensory (hedonic) valuations and attitudes towards ham with a Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) affect the preferences for specific attributes. Results show that consumers with a low-medium age and income are more price sensitive. Consumers more inclined sensorially towards the regional specialty (with or without PDO) are more likely to purchase this product, and consumers with a more favourable attitude towards PDO ham are also more prone to purchase cured ham with quality certification. Findings also suggest that although the PDO scheme attracts a segment of consumers, the origin by itself is still a more powerful signal of quality, and more specifically the region of origin.     

Equilibrium Heterogeneous-Agent models as measurement tools: Some Monte Carlo evidence

This paper discusses a series of Monte Carlo experiments designed to evaluate the empirical properties of Heterogeneous-Agent macroeconomic models in the presence of sampling variability. The calibration procedure leads to the welfare analysis being conducted with the wrong parameters. The ability of the calibrated model to correctly predict the long-run welfare changes induced by a set of policy experiments is assessed. The results show that, for the policy reforms with sizable welfare effects (i.e., more than 0.2%), the model always predicts the right sign of the welfare effects. However, the welfare effects can be evaluated with the wrong sign, when they are small and when the sample size is fairly limited. Quantitatively, the maximum errors made in evaluating a policy change are very small for some reforms (in the order of 0.02 percentage points), but bigger for others (in the order of 0.6 percentage points). Finally, having access to better data, in terms of larger samples, does lead to substantial increases in the precision of the welfare effects estimates, though the rate of convergence can be slow.     

Artificial Intelligence in Managing Market Relationships

Abstract

In the 21st century our society is increasingly defined by access to and fluency with digital technologies and information infrastructures which are described to be essential to economic development, global competitiveness and national productivity (Merril Lynch & Co. Inc., 2000). This paper presents a theoretical framework for the development of a new intelligent software system designed to integrate loyalty programs data bases information, consumer surveys and qualitative studies what will enable the producing firm to be in contact with consumers' behavioural and attitudinal patterns. The benefit of this theoretical model is its assistance to consumer goods-producing firms to establish information-based relationships with both the end customer-user and the retailers that distribute the goods.     

Fixed exchange rate credibility with heterogeneous expectations

After disinflation has been achieved, agents who form more sophisticated forecasts have lower confidence in the sustainability of a peg compared to less sophisticated agents. Furthermore, sustained financial stability leads to a declining proportion of sophisticated agents. Thus, the credibility of a fixed exchange rate regime grows over time partly because fewer people pay attention to the workings of the monetary regime. These results are derived in a rules-versus-discretion model of a fixed exchange rate regime with heterogeneous agents. We provide unique supporting evidence using data on expectations and information about the monetary regime from Bulgaria’s currency board.     

试论旅行社服务模式创新

近年来，旅游产品质量投诉问题作为业界热点而持续升温，困扰着旅行社业。究其原因，从表象来看，旅行社业竞争加剧导致的产品同质化竞争，引起了价格战，使旅游产品质量下降。深层次的原因在于随着中国步入信息化社会及消费者的日益成熟，传统的旅行社业服务模式已无法满足以顾客为导向的营销理念的需要。因此，要全方位变革旅行社业服务模式，将信息技术导入旅游产品的开发设计、建立适应市场经济特征的垂直分层的营销体系，以战略眼光创建客户关系管理系统。     

Growth with many agents and wages paid ex ante

In this paper, we consider a one-sector model of economic growth with several infinitely-lived heterogeneous agents, who are endowed with diverse discount factors as well as preferences over consumption. In line with the classical Ramsey model, agents are not allowed to borrow against future income. Unlike the traditional assumption of ex post wage payment, wages are paid ex ante in our model. We first explain the difference between the assumptions of wages being paid ex ante and wages being paid ex post in the framework of a simple illustrative two-class model. Our main result shows that in contrast to the many-agent Ramsey model with ex post wage payment, the capital stock sequence converges to the steady state stock irrespective of production technology employed by the firms. Further, all impatient agents own zero capital stock, whereas the most patient agent owns the entire capital stock from some time onward. Thus, we have shown that a slight modification in the timing of wage payment in growth models can lead to significant changes in the stability properties of equilibrium dynamics.     

创业者异质性胜任特征与创业政策供给

以供需匹配为指导思想，基于胜任力理论，解析创业者类型及其异质性胜任特征，挖掘创业者异质性创业政策需求；借鉴创业MOS模型，构建异质性创业政策供给框架。结果表明：①创业者可分为生存推动型、机会拉动型和创新驱动型3种类型。其中，生存推动型创业者创业行为呈现创业被动性、风险规避性等特征，其认知胜任力和职能胜任力较强，机会拉动型创业者创业行为呈现机会警觉性、资本积累性等特征，其认知胜任力和社会胜任力较强，创新驱动型创业者创业行为呈现创新变革性、资源撬动性等特征，其认知胜任力和心理胜任力较强；②创业政策供给通过动机激发、机会增加和技能培育提升创业者创业胜任力，有助于创业者创业机会识别和创业资源整合以及创业者创业绩效提升；③鉴于创业者创业胜任特征和创业政策需求差异，政府应实施异质性创业政策供给，侧重生存推动型创业者动机激发和机会增加，关注机会拉动型创业者动机强化和技能培育，注重创新驱动型创业者技能提升和机会增加。     

The influence of crop insurance agents on coverage choices: The role of agent competition

We examine how competition among crop insurance agents affects coverage choice in the federal crop insurance program. Agents may influence producers’ insurance decisions to maximize their total compensation. We develop a theoretical model of producer–agent interaction to examine how loss potential, agent compensation mechanisms, and market competition affect the coverage level selected. Using crop insurance unit-level datasets from five states, we find evidence that agent market concentration and agents’ market share matter in the insurance coverage decisions of producers but that the economic significance of the influence is relatively small. Agent influence over coverage level, premium, and liability choice is generally positive but inconsistent across states, which may be attributable to differences in loss risk and agent compensation mechanisms.     

Time-varying risk attitude and the foreign exchange market behavior

This paper presents a heterogeneous agents model of the foreign exchange market in which agents’ risk attitudes vary over time due to psychological factors emphasized in prospect theory. We find that psychological component and risk-profit elasticity play significant roles in exchange rate expectations formation and investment behavior. Although all agents show more risk-averse after the crisis, the extent to which their risk attitude responds to the crisis varies due to heterogeneous forecasting rules as well as the changes of trading environment and central bank intervention. Moreover, time-varying risk attitudes can help explain the forward premium puzzle. These findings have implications for the exchange rate expectation formation theories and foreign exchange market stability policies.