政策性农业保险推广对农民收入的增进效应与作用路径解析--对渐进性试点的准自然实验研究

政策性农业保险作为重要的支农政策工具之一,除了起到农业风险管理作用之外,从长期来看还具有促进农民增收等效应。本文通过对已有文献进行梳理,讨论了政策性农业保险推广对农民收入增加的作用路径,并基于准自然实验的思路,将我国各省开展政策性农业保险试点作为外生冲击,利用2000~2016年的省级数据,使用渐进性双重差分的方法,评估政策性农业保险推广对农村居民收入以及收入结构的长期影响效果。研究发现,政策性农业保险试点对农村居民人均农业收入和人均非农收入的影响均是正向显著的,并且有助于区域内农村居民非农收入比重提高,这一效果随试点时间推进不断强化。此外,本文进一步检验了政策性农业保险推广对于城乡关系的间接效应,发现政策性农业保险试点对城镇居民收入的影响不大,对城乡收入差距缩小具有一定作用。     

我国天然气专业技术标准的现状与设想

概括了我国天然气专业技术标准发展的现状，并通过与国际标准和国外先进标准比较，以及针对现场分析中存在的问题，提出了应采用完善《天然气专业标准体系表》，加快与国际接轨和“采标”的速度等办法来推动我国天然气专业标准化工作的发展。     

Politically connected boards,value or cost: evidence from a natural experiment in China

This study investigates the net effect of a politically connected board for a firm. Using a natural experiment in China – a regulatory change to forbid bureaucrats from sitting on the board of public firms – we address the causality of the net effect of a politically connected board by testing the market reaction of the shares of firm targeted by the regulatory change to the policy announcement. The stocks of firms with politically connected directors who are targeted by the regulatory change show on average a significantly positive abnormal return, which suggests that the agency cost effect of a politically connected director dominates the value effect. The result is robust to various model settings and to a matched sample using the propensity score methodology. Additionally, the announcement effect of the resignation of a politically connected director is significantly positive, and significantly higher than that of a non‐connected director. Overall, our results suggest that the agency cost effect of a politically connected director dominates the value effect.     

Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement

Expert judgement is pervasive in all forms of risk analysis, yet the development of tools to deal with such judgements in a repeatable and transparent fashion is relatively recent. This work outlines new findings related to an approach to expert elicitation termed the IDEA protocol. IDEA combines psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates. In particular, this research explores whether communication among experts adversely effects the reliability of group estimates. Using data from estimates of the outcomes of geopolitical events, we find that loss of independence is relatively modest and it is compensated by improvements in group accuracy.     

Structural Changes in China’s Import Market: A Comparison with Korea’s Exports to China

The article examines the structural changes of China’s import market for domestic demand and the corresponding structural changes of Korea’s exports to China for Chinese domestic demand. Using 8-digit HS code data covering the period 2006–2014 and analyzing the processing steps as well as by industry, this study reveals that while the share of ordinary trade in total China’s imports has increased rapidly, the share of processing trade has decreased continuously since the mid-2000s. The article also shows that Korea’s exports to China is still processing trade-oriented. The slowdown of Korea’s exports to China is because of the concentration on processing trade, intermediate goods, electronics and chemistry.     

高职院校教师工作压力源研究综述

通过对CNKI数据库中涉及高职院校教师工作压力源文献的统计分析表明：高职院校教师承担的工作压力源多达24项，其中主要包括工作负荷大、学生学习成绩差、教师职业发展受限、学校组织管理科学性不高、工资待遇低、科研论著要求高和社会支持较少等。从实施主体来看，缓解高职院校教师工作压力的对策可分为政府、学校和教师个体三类主体。现有研究在以下领域还需加强：提高对高职教师工作压力源的关注度，把握高职教育的办学特点，重视对缓解工作压力措施的可行性研究。     

Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.     

县域金融支农效率的实证研究——基于浙江省部分县域2005-2009年数据

本文主要运用DEA模型,利用2005-2009年的数据对浙江省县域金融支农的技术效率、纯技术效率及规模效率进行实证研究,结果表明三农贷款的效率与金融要素的投入有关,县域金融对"三农"支持倾斜政策所产生的效率较为显著,金融资源投入要素的配置更趋合理,规模效率逐步提高,但尚有一定的发展空间.在此基础上,提出了改进金融支农效率的相关政策建议.     

Wetland mitigation banking: Negotiations with stakeholders in a zone of ecological-economic viability

Wetland mitigation banking (WMB) is an organizational form that attempts to balance the ecological goals of wetland conservation and the economic goals of development with the aim of improving the implementation of wetland offsetting. Given the resulting tension, it is important to understand how the way stakeholders employ the WMB regulatory framework affects the goal of No Net Loss of wetlands. In this study, we interviewed WMB stakeholders in Florida in the United States to identify their strategies during negotiations around different aspects of defining wetland mitigation credits (e.g. service areas, types of credit and credit release schedules). Using the approach of New Institutional Economics, we found that within a framework of well-defined rules that nonetheless allow flexibility, WMB enables a field of action for negotiating within a zone of ecological-economic viability – in part due to the stakeholders’ interest in maintaining a good reputation in this field. Outside of this zone of viability a wetland mitigation bank proposal collapses for economic or ecological reasons.     

Philanthropic giving of China’s hotel firms: The roles of state ownership,corporate misconduct and executive remuneration

This study utilizes value enhancement theory, agency cost theory and crisis management theory to scrutinize the philanthropic giving (PG) of China’s listed hotel companies from 2003 to 2018. The results of dynamic panel regression tests reveal that state ownership (company character), corporate misconduct (crisis management determinant) and executive remuneration (agency cost determinant) are influential factors in hotel firms’ PG, but none of the value enhancement determinants can explain PG. Specifically, state ownership is negatively correlated with PG, reflecting low PG in government dominated hotel firms in China. PG is negatively associated with executive remuneration, indicating that hotel managers care more about self-interest than social responsibility. PG is also positively related to corporate misconduct, suggesting that hotel firms use philanthropy to manage a crisis. Finally, the lagged PG has a positive effect on PG, implying that PG is intended to avoid damage to social image and reputation of China’s hotel firms.