国债挤出效应的实证分析

发行国债投资于基础设施是带动经济增长的重要手段，但随着国债发行规模的不断扩大，国债对民间投资是否存在挤出作用成为了理论界关注的焦点。文章通过对投资主体投资份额、总量的相关分析以及国债投资方向的聚类分析，认为现阶段由于国债投资方向与宏观经济环境的原因，国债发行对民间投资挤出作用较小，带动作用较大。     

论乡村旅游的"围城"效应及可持续发展

在乡村旅游如火如荼进行的同时，也面临着诸多尴尬，陷入了其发展的“围城”之中。只有实施低成本运营的制度化、产业链本地化、经营者共生化、投资途径复合化、乡村旅游生态化，才能促进乡村旅游的可持续发展。     

多重关联下PE/VC持股对公司财务风险影响的传导效应

在资本结构、股权结构及市场价值三类多重关联关系下,研究了我国PE/VC持股对公司财务风险影响的多重传导效应。实证检验表明：我国PE/VC的介入会加剧其持股公司发生财务风险的危机,且在该影响过程中,资本结构波动和市场价值波动会增加公司财务风险,而股权结构波动可抑制公司财务风险发生。同时,股权结构波动的遮掩效应最为显著,资本结构波动次之,而市场价值波动的遮掩效应最弱。此外,这三类潜变量在该影响过程中的多重传导效应存在上市板块差异。     

Assessment and selection of management consultants: A comparative cognitive study between small- and large-scale companies

This paper explores alternative ways of evaluating and ultimately hiring a generalist consultancy for short- and medium-term projects, and how this is shaped by the size of the clients’ company. What buying factors do managers of small and large firms have in mind when hiring consultants for their projects?Instead of employing surveys incorporating predefined buying factors based on what the researchers think would be important, a cognitive mapping methodology - the repertory grid technique - is applied to investigate the underlying phenomena. Using the repertory grid technique to draw mental models is a novel research technique within the supply management field. Recent behavioral supply chain management research found the behavior of managers to be critically influenced by mental models: the lenses through which managers perceive, simplify and interpret the world.Results show differences between the buying factors used in small- and large-scale companies: managers of large companies are more ‘reputation and outcome-oriented’ and managers of small businesses are more concerned with ‘how the services are rendered’. However, both constituents stressed the importance of expertise, quality and the relationship between the client and the management consultancy, although the character of such a relationship differed between small- and large-scale firms. Results also point out criteria that managers of small and large companies employ to discriminate between good and poor performing consultancies and to judge service delivery. The practical implications for both companies hiring consultancies and the consultancy companies are discussed. For consultancies, our findings can help tailoring their efforts to a differing clientele when marketing and selling their services. For companies hiring consultancies, fixating too much on particular buying factors may lead to biased decisions.     

河北省人才集聚政策实证分析

人才作用的发挥和人才政策的落实紧密相关。论文对河北省人才政策进行分析,结合现场访谈和调查问卷数据的收集,实证研究了河北省近三年人才政策对人才集聚的效果,结果显示,不同类型人才政策对人才集聚均产生影响,但影响程度各异。人才对人才管理政策、人才激励政策较为关注,而人才吸引政策和人才发展保障政策则产生较小影响。最后提出了河北省进一步完善政策实现区域人才集聚的对策建议。     

阿里巴巴并购饿了么的动因和财务风险分析

在经济全球化的背景下,为扩大企业经营规模,并购成为企业很好的选择。论文以阿里巴巴收购饿了么为例,研究阿里巴巴收购饿了么的动因,分析并购为阿里巴巴这个典型的互联网企业带来的财务风险,并为互联网企业的并购提供宝贵的建议。     

Governance or reputation? Flexible tax enforcement and excess goodwill: Evidence from the taxpaying credit rating system in China

This study investigates the effect of flexible tax enforcement on firms’ excess goodwill using unique manually collected data on taxpaying credit rating in China from 2014 to 2021. We document that A-rated taxpayer firms have less excess goodwill; A-rated firms reduce excess goodwill by 0.005 vis-a-vis non-A-rated firms, which accounts for 100% of the mean value of excess goodwill. This finding holds after multiple robustness tests and an endogeneity analysis. Moreover, this negative effect is more pronounced in firms with low information transparency, that are non-state-owned and that are located in regions with low tax enforcement intensity. The channel test results suggest that taxpaying credit rating system as flexible tax enforcement reduces firms’ excess goodwill through a reputation-based effect and not a governance-based effect. This study reveals that the taxpaying credit rating system in China as flexible tax enforcement can bring halo effect to A rating firms, thereby limiting irrational M&As and breaking goodwill bubble.     

数字经济对我国碳排放的影响研究

基于2013-2020年的30个省份数据构建面板数据模型,从碳排放总量和碳排放强度两个视角研究数字经济发展对区域碳排放的影响。研究发现：数字经济的发展有效地降低了人均碳排放量、碳排放增量与碳排放增速,数字经济与碳排放强度之间存在倒“U”形关系,数字经济与碳排放强度、边际碳排放强度的关系呈现区域性特征,在省域层面数字经济对边际碳排放强度的影响不存在明显的空间效应,数字经济对碳排放增长率的影响存在基于产业结构优化、人口集聚、城镇化的遮掩效应。     

美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应研究

基于前瞻性指引溢出效应的相关理论,选取17个代表性新兴市场国家为研究对象,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证分析美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应.结果表明:美联储前瞻性指引在短期内对新兴市场国家金融市场具有一定的冲击,在长期内对新兴市场国家经济增长存在滞后的正向作用.新兴市场国家应采取应对策略,做好风险识别和预警,加强预期管理,增强货币政策协调和合作,有效防范和化解外溢影响.     

Central Bank's interventions and the Fisher hypothesis: a threshold cointegration investigation

The long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, allowing for structural breaks and asymmetric mean reversion. From a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) test applied to the residuals of the cointegration relationship (while allowing for both a break in the mean of the long-run equation and a smooth regime-transition), there is strong evidence for non-linear mean reversion properties for the real interest rates of the US Treasury Bill market. This suggests asymmetric changes to inflation shocks in the Central Bank's reaction function. The existence of different regimes is consistent with some interpretations of the monetary policies run by the Fed, such as credibility and opportunism.