Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

This paper uses a tractable macroeconomic model with idiosyncratic human capital risk and incomplete markets to analyze the growth and welfare effects of business cycles. The analysis is based on the assumption that the elimination of business cycles eliminates the variation in idiosyncratic risk. The paper shows that a reduction in the variation in idiosyncratic risk decreases the ratio of physical to human capital and increases the total investment return and welfare. If the degree of risk aversion is less than or equal to one, then economic growth is enhanced. This paper also provides a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of business cycles based on a calibrated version of the model. Even for relatively small degrees of risk aversion (around one) the model implies that the elimination of business cycles has substantial effects on investment in physical and human capital, economic growth, and welfare.     

地方官员与经济增长——来自中国省长、省委书记交流的证据

通常认为地方官员在我国经济发展中扮演着积极角色,近来国家也有意通过干部交流促进省区平衡发展,但国内还没有定量识别地方官员影响经济增长的文献。本文基于1978—2005年间省长(书记)交流样本构造了省长(书记)与省区相匹配的面板数据,系统地实证分析省长(书记)交流对流入省区经济增长的影响(即省长交流效应),结果发现,整体而言,省长交流能够使流入地的经济增长速度提高1个百分点左右;这种省长交流效应是通过在流入地采取大力发展二产、重视一产、忽视三产的产业发展取向实现的。本文的发现是稳健的,有助于增进对加强干部交流破解省区发展不平衡的理解。     

Human capital composition, growth and development: an R&D growth model versus data

The effect of human capital composition on growth and development has been somewhat neglected in economic literature. However, evidence has suggested the importance of engineering and technical (high-tech) skills to economic growth, and international organizations have suggested their shortage in developed countries. Using a standard increasing variety growth model, we propose various measures of human capital composition that are related with economic growth and development. When compared to data, the model does well in explaining the rate of growth and the level of development as a function of these measures. “the British colonies had a better educated population (...). Education was secular with emphasis on pragmatic skills and yankee ingenuity (...). The 13 British colonies had nine universities in 1776 for 2.5 million people. New Spain, with 5 million, had only two universities (...) which concentrated on theology and law.” –(Maddison, 2001)     

Endogenous structural change and crisis in a multiple time-scales growth model

The slow and endogenous twist of economic macro-structure makes up an important evolutionary feature of capitalist economies, and may be at the root of structural crisis. In this line, a Goodwinian growth model with increasing returns and profit-sharing that tries to picture a simple scenario of the seventies crisis is considered. It is shown that the exhaustion of the Kaldor-Verdoorn “productivity law” can entail, in a nonlinear framework, a “catastrophic” bifurcation from a “high” to a “low” growth path. Slow/fast dynamical systems then allow one to formalize a multiple time-scales dynamics where the growth path is shaped by the structural framework in which it takes place, but has also a long -un feedback. Structural change and crisis appear as long term and endogenous outcomes.     

新农业革命与农业的21世纪

战后60年代第一次农业革命（绿色革命）的兴起·显著地推动了世界经济的发展。近年来，生物技术革命的风起云涌，又引起一场新农业革命（白色革命）的悄然兴起。新农业革命（基于白色农业）必将导致农业结构从自然型向人工型转换，从而在21世纪内将实现现代农业转向“未来大农业”的结构重组。21世纪必将是农业的新世纪。     

中国和印度不平衡发展的比较研究

本文考察了中国和印度近年来经济增长不平衡的情况,并分析了不平衡增长对不均等和贫困的影响。通过对家庭调查数据和官方加总数据的分析,本文发现增长存在不平衡——区域间、产业间和家庭层面上,这表明减贫工作进展不平衡,若增长更平衡,减贫效果可能更好;另外,收入不均等程度也在提高。本文探讨了增长不平衡及其应引起重视的原因。具体讨论围绕"有利的"和"不利的"不均等两个概念展开——不均等与不平衡增长对公平性以及长期增长与发展的有利或不利影响。我们认为,需要制定相关政策,保持有利的不均等——继续鼓励创新和投资,同时降低不利的不均等的程度,尤其是通过人力资本和农村基础设施投资,帮助贫困人口参与市场。     

Leisure time, savings and trade patterns A two-country growth model

This paper proposes a simple two-country endogenous growth model with endogenous consumption, leisure time and wealth accumulation. The model examines possible causes for the world economic growth and the existence and persistence of trade patterns between countries with different preferceces and human capital under internationally free capital mobility. We show how differences in preferences in consumption, leisure time and wealth between the two countries may affect long-run world economic growth.     

上市公司可持续发展评价体系构建

目前,我国上市公司业绩评价体系门类繁多,但专门评价可持续发展能力的指标体系尚停留在探索阶段。本文在现有研究基础上,构建了上市公司可持续发展的实现模型,并选取定量指标,采用变异系数总指数法赋予权重,建立了上市公司可持续发展评价体系。以2003年我国电子行业上市公司为样本进行检验,结果发现,其结果与《2003年度中国上市公司业绩评价报告》具有一致性。     

三峡库区小城镇可持续发展评价与对策——重庆市万州区龙沙镇实证分析

加快小城镇可持续发展是缩小城乡差距，落实科学发展观，建设和谐社会的重要举措。以往各方对小城镇的研究存在一些不足：数据欠缺，少实证分析，或将小城镇简单地视同为规模缩小的城市，没有注意到小城镇发展的特殊性。本文选择三峡库区一个典型城镇作为案例，通过实地调查，结合当地的统计资料，对其可持续发展状况进行评价，以期找出症结，并提出解决问题的思路。     

对企业国际化理论的反思及其价值认识

真正意义上的企业国际化产生于工业革命之后,经历了进出口贸易、对外直接投资、许可经营等阶段,许多理论对这些活动发生的动因、条件与展开的路径进行了直接或间接的解释与分析。在当前全球化日益深入发展的背景下,对企业国际化理论进行反思,具有推动理论研究与指导实践操作的价值。