Empirics of hills,plateaus, mountains and plains: A Markov-switching approach to growth

Most economic growth research has been aimed at explaining cross-country differences in average growth rates. However, it is well known that growth experiences differ over time within a country almost as much as they differ among countries. This paper builds on Pritchett's (2000) [Pritchett, Lant, Understanding patterns of economic growth: searching for hills among plateaus, mountains, and plains, World Bank Economic Review, May 2000, 14 (2), 221–250.] observation that the growth process can be thought of as transitions between different growth regimes and proposes a framework for systematic analysis of such regimes and the dynamics of the transitions. I estimate a Markov-switching regression to characterize four distinct growth regimes and transitions between them. The results show that countries switch among regimes of stable growth, “miracle” catch-up, stagnation and crisis with the transition probabilities determined by the quality of institutions. Better institutions appear to improve long-run growth by making episodes of fast growth more persistent. Low average growth rates in countries with weak institutions are a result of these countries spending more time in stagnation regimes rather then being incapable of fast growth at all. Weak institutions do not rule out growth takeoffs but limit their sustainability. The approach directs attention to shifts in growth performance and highlights the fact that identical average growth rates can mask very distinct growth paths.     

基于服务化和智能制造融合的工业企业商业模式创新研究

服务化和智能制造代表需求拉动和技术推动两种创新模式,是工业企业战略布局的重要方向,然而对二者间联系及融合界面缺乏清晰理解。基于商业模式创新视角,将服务化和智能制造概念结合,明确二者的融合界面,并依据服务化和数字化水平两维度,确定二者融合的九种组合架构,借助文献案例进行示例及说明,进而讨论了实施复杂度差异性。该研究深化了服务化和智能制造融合的规律认知,可为管理者的商业模式创新决策提供参考。     

中国地区增长是否存在收敛?——随机框架下的再讨论

针对单个面板单位根检验结果具有多种可能含义的问题,本文基于多种面板单位根检验方法以及验证分析(confirmatory analysis)的思路,对改革开放以来我国各地区经济增长的随机收敛特性进行了再检验。结果发现,全国范围内并不存在全局性的随机收敛,借助序贯分类方法,我们发现相对于全国水平的随机收敛只出现在六个省区。进一步检验也未发现存在俱乐部式随机收敛的证据。发展失衡已经成为我国地区经济增长的显著特征,推动地区发展重回均衡应成为经济政策的重要核心。本文研究还表明在对面板单位根检验结果进行解释时需要谨慎。     

Fast convergence in evolutionary equilibrium selection

Stochastic best response models provide sharp predictions about equilibrium selection when the noise level is arbitrarily small. The difficulty is that, when the noise is extremely small, it can take an extremely long time for a large population to reach the stochastically stable equilibrium. An important exception arises when players interact locally in small close-knit groups; in this case convergence can be rapid for small noise and an arbitrarily large population. We show that a similar result holds when the population is fully mixed and there is no local interaction. Moreover, the expected waiting times are comparable to those in local interaction models.     

Technological Convergence in the IT Industry: The Role of Strategic Technology Alliances and Technological Competencies

For some time now, the convergence of the telecommunications and computer industries into a single 'information and entertainment' industry has been predicted. The acquisitions that appeared to be bringing such a convergence about have not, however, proved particularly successful. The paper suggests that one factor behind the relatively low degree of convergence may be inertia. Following evolutionary and ecological theory, the paper argues that both external and internal inertial forces reduce the ability of firms to deal with changes in their technological cores. The paper concludes that technological convergence, although apparent on the technological and product/market level, does not seem to have affected the 'core' competencies of major IT companies.     

On the global acceptance of IAS/IFRS accounting standards: The logic and implications of the principles-based system

The widespread acceptance of International Accounting Standards (IAS)/International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) makes it timely to examine their technical determinants as well as their implications for the accounting profession and the process of accounting harmonization. In this respect, we suggest that the principles-based approach to the standards and its inner flexibility enables the application of IAS/IFRS to countries with diverse accounting traditions and varying institutional conditions. Furthermore, the principles-based approach involves major changes in the expertise held by accountants and, hence, in their educational background, training programs, and in the organizational and business models of accounting firms. Finally, we submit that the standards set by the IAS/IFRS constitute a step forward in the process of accounting harmonization, although there is still far to go in the comparability of accounting measures across countries and regions.     

知识联盟中知识存量振荡系统收敛性研究

运用知识存量理论、知识联盟理论的分析方法,提出知识联盟中知识存量振荡系统收敛性问题。通过模型假设,构建知识存量振荡系统收敛性模型。认为在知识存量和知识流量共同作用下,知识存量振荡系统经历释能、解码、匹配和调适4个阶段,沿着非线性路径呈收敛性状态。     

大气环境资源的时空异质性及其经济含义

大气污染的治理不仅要考虑污染物排放量控制与污染损失减少的关系,还应该考虑污染物排放的时间和空间效应。本文首先从污染物排放和大气自然净化能力的平衡角度建立模型,描述了大气环境的污染和净化过程,揭示了大气环境资源的时空异质性、经济学概念及政策含义。然后从中国大气环境资源利用角度进行实证分析,以中国省会城市和50个样本城市的相关数据为例,发现大气环境资源时空异质性确实存在。最后提出有针对性的优化大气污染控制政策的方法和思路,包括污染物排放的空间转移策略和错峰排放机制。     

河南省各地区经济增长的趋同与差异研究

文章研究了河南省各地区的经济趋同现象,并运用经济趋同和产业集聚理论对形成经济趋同的因素进行了研究,提出了相关的对策建议.结论是:河南省存在着三种不同的趋同俱乐部:郑州和洛阳;商丘、信阳、周口和驻马店以及其他地区;河南省的投资要发挥最大的经济效应必须根据各地区的推动产业来投资;各地区要想加快经济发展,形成本地区的推动产业,加大人力资本投资和扩大市场开放程度是必由之路.     

创新环境约束下高技术产业区域创新效率及收敛性研究

以各地区高技术产业为样本,应用超越对数随机前沿模型实证测算了创新环境约束下各地高技术产业基础研发和成果转化创新效率,并基于σ收敛、β收敛以及俱乐部收敛3种判别方法,考察了高技术产业基础研发效率和成果转化效率的收敛性特征。研究发现,2000-2014年我国创新环境对区域高技术产业的影响不可小觑,在其约束下高技术产业基础研发效率不断提升,呈现出东西较高、中北较低的分布态势且出现收敛特征;在应用效率方面,各地区成果转化效率大致划分为2000-2007年的缓慢增长期与2008-2014年的缓慢衰退期两个阶段,具有东高西低、南高北低的分布态势且趋于发散。