我国物价水平的非线性调整分析

在前人对我国物价水平与货币量、产出间的协整关系研究的基础上,本文重新审视了线性调整模型中不变调整速度的假设,并利用非线性调整模型进一步研究了它们之间短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度问题。否定了不变调整速度的假定,肯定了短期偏离的非线性调整性,并解释了我国货币政策对物价水平影响差异的原因。     

中国城市土地利用效率研究

基于Bootstrap-DEA方法,测算了2010年全国622个城市的土地利用效率,并分析其相关影响因素。结果表明：城市土地效率均值仅为0.371,整体偏低,内涵挖潜空间较大;土地利用效率在不同区域存在显著差异,东部最高,西部次之,中部最低;土地利用效率具有显著的规模递减效应,城市规模等级越高,利用效率越低; “土地招商”和“卖地财政”对土地利用效率有显著的负面影响。废除地方政府对土地资源配置的垄断,充分发挥土地市场功能,盘活存量土地,是破除城市化面临的土地约束的现实途径。     

我国国债利率期限结构实证分析

基于上海证券交易市场国债交易数据,运用改进的息票剥离法和多项式样条函数法来分析国内国债利率期限结构,可知,两种方法相互间的拟合效果比较好,收益率曲线向上倾斜,符合流动性偏好理论;利用三次多项式构造我国的国债利率期限结构是有效的。     

兼具截面相依性和重尾性面板单位根检验方法研究及应用

Block Bootstrap方法因其适用范围广和操作简单等众多优点成为面板单位根检验的理想工具之一。然而,由于要求误差项服从独立同分布的假设条件,该方法仍具有一定的局限性。为此,本文发展Wild Bootstrap方法来解决误差项可能具有截面相依性和重尾性等更一般情形下的面板单位根检验问题。 Monte Carlo模拟结果表明,当重尾性存在时,Wild Bootstrap检验相对Block Bootstrap检验有更小的水平扭曲和更高的功效。最后对中国股票市场的有效性问题进行了实证检验,并得出其为弱式有效性的结论。     

UNCERTAINTY AND DENSITY FORECASTS OF ARMA MODELS: COMPARISON OF ASYMPTOTIC,BAYESIAN, AND BOOTSTRAP PROCEDURES

The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of uncertainty on density forecasts of stationary linear univariate ARMA models. We consider three specific sources of uncertainty: parameter estimation, error distribution, and lag order. Depending on the estimation sample size and the forecast horizon, each of these sources may have different effects. We consider asymptotic, Bayesian, and bootstrap procedures proposed to deal with uncertainty and compare their finite sample properties. The results are illustrated constructing fan charts for UK inflation.     

Spatial Spillovers on Input‐specific Inefficiency of Dutch Arable Farms

Traditional benchmarking implicitly assumes that decision making units operate in isolation from their peers. For arable production systems in particular, this assumption is unlikely to hold in reality. This paper quantifies spatial spillovers on input‐specific inefficiency using data envelopment analysis and a second‐stage bootstrap truncated regression model. The bootstrap algorithm is extended to allow for the estimation of the parameter of the spatial weight matrix, which captures the proximity between producers. The empirical application concerns Dutch arable farms for which latitudes and longitudes are available. The average inefficiency across years was 3.87% for productive inputs and 2.98% for damage abatement inputs under variable returns to scale. For productive inputs technical inefficiency, statistically significant spillover effects from neighbours’ age and their degree of specialisation depended on the type of the spatial weight matrix used (inverse distance or k‐nearest neighbours). Statistically significant spillover effects of subsidy payments were adverse while statistically significant spillover effects from insurance payments were beneficial. For damage abatement inputs technical inefficiency, statistically significant adverse effects were found for neighbours’ age and subsidy payments and beneficial effects from neighbours’ insurance payments and their degree of specialisation.     

Assessing banking sectors’ efficiency of financially troubled Eurozone countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the relative banking efficiency of the Eurozone’s soft underbelly (i.e., the so called PIIGS countries: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) in the period after the outburst of the financial crisis. It is one of the few that attempts to measure banking efficiency in the periphery of Eurozone in the outburst of the financial crisis using a battery of efficiency evaluation techniques for robustness reasons. This study relies on a modeling framework consisting of data envelopment analysis (DEA), bootstrapping, Malmquist Productivity Index and truncated regression which is applied on accounting and macroeconomic data spanning from 2009 to 2015. Findings show statistical evidence of a high degree of inefficiency in most of the examined banks. The application of the truncated regression indicate several financial variables as driving forces, offering thus important warning signs for banking performance. Indicators such as Tier 1 Capital to Risk Weighted Assets, Tangible Common Equity to Risk–Weighted Assets, Risk-Weighted Assets to Total Assets, Non-Performing Assets to Total Assets and Net Income Margin contribute in banks' efficiency score. The above financial variables need to be closely monitored by the bank’s decision makers. Moreover, inflation and high levels of General Government Debt to GDP ratio also affect the efficiency of banks.     

野生捕捞淡水贝类出口风险分析及应对

截至2009年10月29日,我国共有出口野生捕捞淡水贝类注册登记中转场9个,其中8个分布在江苏范围,生产水域包括太湖、洪泽湖、高邮湖等,洪泽湖和太湖是最主要的河蚬产区。据报道,洪泽湖河蚬探明储量为21.29万t（1991年）,太湖河蚬资源探明蕴藏量为4.7万t,可年供逾5800 t＂太湖活蚬＂,按每公斤活蚬10元计,其每年产值超过5000万元。笔者从事出口水生动物检验检疫工作多年,本文将结合检验检疫监管工作中发现的问题提出自己的看法。     

ON BOOTSTRAPPING A CLASS OF DIFFERENTIABLE STATISTICAL FUNCNONALS WITH APPLICATIONS TO L– AND M– ESTIMATES

EFRON'S (1979) "bootstrap" method is justified for a class of differentiable statistical functionals which includes many L – and M –statistics. For illustration, a Monte Carlo study for the trimmed means is also included.     

An alternative approach to discriminating multivariate populations and its applications to marketing research

A new method for discriminating among multivariate populations, called the Hausdorff procedure, is introduced to the marketing literature. Rules for classification are defined and a limited simulation study is conducted. For the simulation, both the level of collinearity among the discriminating variables and the level of overlap among the populations are varied. The results indicate that this new procedure is particularly suitable when there is either a high degree of collinearity among the predictor variables or considerable overlap of the populations being investigated. The Hausdorff procedure is also applied to two sets of consumer data. In each instance, it is found to be superior to linear discriminant analysis with respect to the percentage of correct classifications.