城镇化和制造业结构升级互动关系研究*——基于挤入挤出效应的考察

城镇化与制造业结构升级存在产业关联和资源配置竞争。协调推进城镇化和制造业结构升级,迫切需要识别两者的互动关系。不同于以往的研究思路,本文在对房地产投资、高技术产业投资进行挤入挤出理论分析的基础上,提出了城镇化与制造业产业结构的互动概念框架。基于此,本文采用联立方程实证策略,利用我国2002—2012年面板数据,运用3SLS方法展开分析。研究发现：土地偏向的城镇化进程中,房地产投资对高技术产业投资产生明显挤出效应,对传统产业产生了微弱挤入效应,城镇化对制造业升级有抑制作用;东部地区与全国整体情况一致,而中西部地区的房地产投资对传统产业投资也产生了挤出效应;以高技术投资表征的制造业结构升级微弱地促进了城镇化进程。     

The impact of government debt on the long-run natural real interest rate – a quantitative evaluation

Persistently low natural real interest rates are a problem for monetary policy and financial stability. I analyse to what extent a permanent increase in government debt that is financed by higher taxes could raise the long-run natural real interest rate. As a measurement tool, I use an incomplete markets model with capital and government bonds. Increasing the public debt/GDP ratio by one percentage point raises the real interest rate by between 0.4 and 1.5 basis points, depending on the degree of inequality generated by the model and the tax instrument used to balance the government’s budget constraint. I also show that the interest rate effect of a change in public debt/GDP predicted by the model is significantly smaller than its empirical counterpart for the US, due to the fact that the model understates the empirical fraction of households that are constrained in their consumption decision.     

企业金融资产配置与全要素生产率之谜——基于中国A股制造业上市公司财务数据的GMM分析

全要素生产率增长放缓的"生产率之谜"根源之一在于企业金融化行为,表现为企业越来越偏好配置金融资产。理论上,企业金融资产配置对全要素生产率存在"储蓄"和"挤出"的双重作用机制。进一步地,基于2008-2016年A股制造业上市公司的财务数据,采用GMM方法,实证了"生产率之谜"来自金融化假说的一个解释。实证结果显示：（1）金融资产配置与TFP二者之间呈现倒U型关系,说明金融资产配置在"TFP增速下降"之谜中扮演了促进因子的角色;（2）金融资产配置的挤出效应大于储蓄效应,表明企业套利动机强于储蓄动机,意味着长期来看TFP增长动力趋于弱化;（3）对TFP作用大小随企业所有权性质呈现出较大差异,非国有制造业企业的"储蓄"效应更加显著,而国有制造业企业则更多的是挤出效应;（4）融资约束越小、杠杆率越高、机构投资者越集中、企业规模越大和托宾Q值越低的企业更加偏好金融资产配置,其通过"挤出"效应而对TFP的负向作用也越大。因此,警惕企业金融活动的过度化,并采用差别化的"疏""堵"结合的金融供给侧结构性改革让制造业企业能"安心做好主业"。     

新疆土地实行适度规模经营的探讨

实现农业现代化是我国农业发展的必由之路。在我国现行的以家庭承包经营为基础、统分结合的双层经营体制下,我国农业是很难走向现代化的。因此,在有条件的地方按照依法、自愿、有偿的原则进行土地承包经营权流转,逐步发展适度规模经营是实现农业现代化的必由之路;并针对新疆的特点提出新疆土地应实行适度规模经营的观点。     

Determinants and Implications of Cyclicality: Contrasting Evidence Across Developed and Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the macro-economy and distinguish between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across representative countries in each group. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. The risk of cyclicality is higher in developing countries as high trend inflation limits the scope to mobilize growth and increases downward rigidity of prices. Policy priorities in developing countries should be focused on fighting inflation and improving the investment environment towards maximizing the return on investment and sustaining growth and capacity building. Policy priorities in advanced countries should be focused on mobilizing resources to ease capacity constraints and finance larger investment, with limited crowding out, to maximize the potential of real growth and combat inflationary pressures.     

新农保对农民最优储蓄的挤出效应及其影响因素分析——基于两期代际扩展模型的应用

摘要：新型农村养老保险制度的实施和持续发展,不仅具有维护农村居民社会养老保险权益公平性的社会作用,还能起到刺激农村消费需求增加从而促进农村经济发展的经济作用。通过两期代际扩展型的应用,证明了新农保的实施对个体农户终身效用最大化下的最优储蓄存在挤出效应,其主要影响因素有：缴费年限、缴费比率、养老保险账户的增值保值能力和收入替代率等,并以此为基础,提出了完善新农保制度、促进其可持续发展的政策建议。     

Tourist Perception of Crowding and Management Approaches at Tourism Sites in Xi'an

Tourism crowding management is an important part of sustainable development at tourist attractions. This study seeks to recognize visitors' perceptions of crowding and then identify tourism crowding management approaches for tourism sites in Xi'an, western China. Three kinds of study, which were designed using quantitative and qualitative techniques, were undertaken in Xi'an. In the first two studies the actual numbers of visitors at component parts of five tourist attractions were recorded. Next, visitor responses to these kinds of levels of crowding were assessed. In the third study senior managers were interviewed and asked to explain their approaches to crowding management. Taken together, the information collected from the three studies helped build a model that plots the driving forces shaping tourism crowding at tourism sites.     

The Effects of Locus of Control on Word‐of‐mouth Communication

Word‐of‐mouth can be a powerful tool for and against marketing a brand. The effect of personality can have a significant effect on an individual's word‐of‐mouth behaviour. One of the most popular personality constructs is the locus of control. This research studied the influence of the locus of control on consumer word‐of‐mouth communications. The results showed that individuals who scored high on their internal locus of control were more likely to engage in word‐of‐mouth communication with their out‐groups. In addition, individuals who scored high on their external locus of control were more likely to engage in word‐of‐mouth communication with their in‐group. Out‐groups are defined as people with a weaker ties relationship, while in‐groups are defined as people with a stronger ties relationship (i.e. close friends and family). These findings would help marketers in directing their promotional programmes more effectively.     

An empirical examination of perceived retail crowding,emotions, and retail outcomes

Crowded retail shopping conditions can result from many shoppers being present during a given time and at a given place, as well as from limited customer space owing to inadequate floor layout design and allocation of fixtures and merchandise on the floor. This study investigated the effects of the perception of human crowding and spatial crowding on consumer shopping behavior through mediation of emotions of pleasure, arousal, dominance, and a feeling of satisfaction in an international market. A store intercept survey was conducted on 554 hypermarket consumers in Taipei, Taiwan. The proposed structural relationships among perceived retail crowding, emotions, and retail outcomes were analyzed by using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling with Lisrel 8.54.

The results of the study demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed model in delineating the relationships of retail crowding-emotions-satisfaction-retail outcomes under actual retail environments. The study found that while human crowding perceived during shopping at a hypermarket store positively impacted shoppers' feelings rather than negatively, spatial crowding perceived due to high spatial density negatively impacted shoppers' positive emotions. The findings supported the view that retail crowding affected various shopping activities through influencing positive emotions and summary feelings of satisfaction. Managerial implications of the study were also discussed.     

后发国家创新模式选择：一个综述性理论框架

本文梳理了理论界对后发国家创新模式及路径选择的有关文献,构建了一个理论框架来解答后发国家原始性创新的可能性与可行性,认为在跳出“后发优势”的理论和现实束缚基础上,后发国可以从先发国崛起的过程中寻找本国原始性创新能力提升的内生性要素。