Financial contagion and asset pricing

Asset market interconnectedness can give rise to significant contagion risks during periods of financial crises that extend beyond the risks associated with changes in volatilities and correlations. These channels include the transmission of shocks operating through changes in the higher order comoments of asset returns, including changes in coskewness arising from changes in the interaction between volatility and average returns across asset markets. These additional contagion channels have nontrivial implications for the pricing of options through changes in the payoff probability structure and more generally, in the management of financial risks. The effects of incorrectly pricing risk has proved to be significant during many financial crises, including the subprime crisis from mid 2007 to mid 2008, the Great Recession beginning 2008 and the European debt crisis from 2010. Using an exchange options model, the effects of changes in the comoments of asset returns across asset markets are investigated with special emphasis given to understanding the effects on hedging risk during financial crises. The results reveal that by not correctly pricing the risks arising from higher order moments during financial crises, there is significant mispricing of options, while hedged portfolios during noncrisis periods become exposed to price movements in times of crises.     

Estimating value-at-risk under a Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework with jump

This article proposes a new methodology for measuring Value-at-Risk (hereafter VaR) using a model that incorporates both volatility and jumps. Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) model has been used for the valuation of interest rate derivatives. This study extends the use of HJM model to the estimation VaR. This article specifically uses a two-factor HJM jump-diffusion model for the computation. The study models the Eurodollar futures prices using its derivatives. In addition, this article uses a new volatility specification of Ze-To (2002) to construct the HJM dynamics. The result indicates that the VaR model using HJM jump-diffusion framework performs well in capturing the nonnormality and in providing accurate VaR forecasts in the in-sample and out-sample tests.     

基于期权分析角度谈企业负债的破产及清算

破产与清算是困境企业经营活动的两个相互联系的阶段。本文首先在企业瞬时收益流遵循几何布朗运动的条件下,建立了困境企业在负债时的破产与清算的实物期权分析模型,并利用工程数学软件Matlab7.0对已建立的决策模型进行数值模拟分析,得出了有关的研究结论。研究表明,困境企业在负债投资经营的情况下,由债权人经营,债权人会提早清算;当瞬时现金流的不确定程度加剧时,困境企业负债投资后会延迟清算与破产。     

Investor sentiment and value and growth stock index options

The paper examines the relationship between both individual and institutional investor sentiment measures and the risk-neutral skewness (RNS) of seven stock index options comprising either growth or value stocks. It provides novel evidence that growth index option prices are affected by sentiment measures. The regression results indicate a significantly positive relationship between sentiment measures and the RNS estimated from four growth index options and a negative relationship with two value index options. The results are economically significant since an associated long–short trading strategy yields high abnormal returns with a Sharpe ratio of up to 1.1 and zero exposure to systematic risk. These high abnormal returns provide evidence of a value premium type anomaly in the index options markets.     

A class of Lévy process models with almost exact calibration to both barrier and vanilla FX options

Vanilla (standard European) options are actively traded on many underlying asset classes, such as equities, commodities and foreign exchange (FX). The market quotes for these options are typically used by exotic options traders to calibrate the parameters of the (risk-neutral) stochastic process for the underlying asset. Barrier options, of many different types, are also widely traded in all these markets but one important feature of the FX options markets is that barrier options, especially double-no-touch (DNT) options, are now so actively traded that they are no longer considered, in any way, exotic options. Instead, traders would, in principle, like to use them as instruments to which they can calibrate their model. The desirability of doing this has been highlighted by talks at practitioner conferences but, to our best knowledge (at least within the realm of the published literature), there have been no models which are specifically designed to cater for this. In this paper, we introduce such a model. It allows for calibration in a two-stage process. The first stage fits to DNT options (or other types of double barrier options). The second stage fits to vanilla options. The key to this is to assume that the dynamics of the spot FX rate are of one type before the first exit time from a ‘corridor’ region but are allowed to be of a different type after the first exit time. The model allows for jumps (either finite activity or infinite activity) and also for stochastic volatility. Hence, not only can it give a good fit to the market prices of options, it can also allow for realistic dynamics of the underlying FX rate and realistic future volatility smiles and skews. En route, we significantly extend existing results in the literature by providing closed-form (up to Laplace inversion) expressions for the prices of several types of barrier options as well as results related to the distribution of first passage times and of the ‘overshoot’.     

The accentuated CEO career horizon problem: evidence from international acquisitions

We develop a conceptual model of the career horizon problem of CEOs approaching retirement and discuss its implications on firm risk taking, specifically in engagement in international acquisitions. Based on prospect theory and agency theory, we emphasize the legacy conservation and wealth preservation concerns of CEOs and investigate how their holdings of in‐the‐money unexercised options and firm equity accentuate or mitigate the career horizon problem. The model is tested in the context of international acquisitions with a sample of 293 U.S. firms over a five‐year period (1995–1999). We find that a longer CEO career horizon is associated with a higher likelihood of international acquisitions. We also find that CEOs nearing retirement with high levels of in‐the‐money unexercised options and equity holdings are less likely to engage in international acquisitions than CEOs with low levels of in‐the‐money options and equity holdings. The study raises important considerations about the implications of CEOs' equity and in‐the‐money option holdings on firm risk taking at various stages of their career horizon. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

实物期权定价理论及其在中国的适用性分析

实物期权作为西方新兴的价值评估方法在中国拥有广阔的应用前景，但在应用时也应充分注意到这一方法本身的局限性，以及它在中国特殊情况下可能产生的一些问题。本文介绍了两种金融期权定价方法在实物期权中的应用，以及实物期权定价理论在中国的适用性分析。     

财政支出政策与第三产业优化升级

优化第三产业是我国经济结构调整和增长方式转变的迫切要求。当前,我们要准确把握第三产业发展新趋势，进一步推进第三产业结构优化升级。财政支出对第三产业结构的调整和优化作用十分重要，文章针对我国现行财政支出支持服务业发展中存在的主要问题，提出了完善我国财政支出支持服务业发展做法的对策建议。