企业安全风险分析与管控措施研究

随着各行各业的现代化发展,国家对行业生产安全提出了越来越高的标准,无论是哪个行业,在开展生产作业的过程中,都要注重安全风险的分析和管理。安全风险可能会存在于生产经营的各个阶段,且种类繁多。为促进安全生产标准化目标的实现,企业在日常的工作中,应将安全管理与经济效益实现置于同等重要的地位,不断就各种的安全风险,来制定有针对性的安全处理方案和应急预案。     

论我国商业银行金融风险预警指标体系

当今，我国金融体制改革日益深化，商业银行风险日趋增大，因此，建立健全商业银行金融风险预警机制已成为当务之急，所探讨的预警指标体系正是借鉴了国外的先进经验，并结合我国商业银行的实际业务而设计的，它共包含八大部分，涵盖了商业银行的主要经营业务，对于有效监控我国商业银行金融风险，提高其抵御风险的能力具有重要意义。     

上市公司财务危机实时预警系统研究

我国加入WTO后，在给上市公司带来良好机遇的同时，也使其面临着严峻的挑战。笔者认为建立上市公司财务危机实时预警系统已势在必行。本文首先阐述了上市公司财务危机实时预警的基本前提，接着就如何架构上市公司财务危机实时预警的模式和机制作了探讨，并提出了相关的建议。     

家族企业的危机管理及危机预警系统的构建

家族企业危机主要包括外部环境变化带来的危机和由内部因素带来的危机两大类型。家族企业危机管理对家族企业的生存与发展具有极其重要的意义。家族企业危机预警系统具体由危机监测系统、危机识别系统、危机诊断系统、危机评价系统和危机预处理系统五个子系统构成。家族企业危机预警评价指标体系的设计与警度预报是家族企业危机预警系统构建中的一项重要内容。     

供应链风险预警指标体系研究

分析了供应链风险及其预警机制，提出了供应链风险预警指标体系设计思路，明确了供应链风险预警指标体系设计四项原则：灵敏性原则、灵活性原则、综合性原则、定性和定量指标相结合原则，构建了供应链风险预警指标体系，最后给出了一种供应链风险预警的综合评价方法。     

外债风险预警模型及中国金融安全状况评估

本文提出了一个用于预警一国外债风险的动态模型 ,即多元累计和模型。模型的用户 (债权人和债务国 )能很早地预测到可能导致债务国重订债务期限的金融危机。实证分析结果表明 ,模型具有提前 3年探测到债务国潜在的还债困难的能力。对中国经济金融安全状况的评估结果表明 ,模型可提前 1年发出预警信号。     

区域可持续发展预警系统研究

从系统观念出发，研究了区域可持续发展预警系统的功能与基本结构问题，并结合洛阳实际，设计了预警系统指标体系、衡量与评价方案，旨在尝试构建可持续发展预警系统的框架，为可持续发展的定量研究提供一个新的思路。     

Entry in the presence of dueling options

This paper investigates the influence of industry uncertainty on the decision by established firms to enter a new industry. Specifically, we examine the tension between the option to defer , which discourages entry in the presence of uncertainty, and the option to grow , which may encourage entry in the presence of uncertainty when there are early mover advantages. Empirical analysis on data from a broad array of industries revealed that the effect of uncertainty on entry is not monotonic. Our findings are the first to find support for the nonmonotonic effect of uncertainty that has only recently emerged in theoretical treatments of real options theory, and amplify the importance of considering both the option to defer and the option to grow when contemplating entry. Furthermore, we found evidence that the relationship between uncertainty and entry is moderated by: (a) irreversibility, which influences the value of the option to defer; (b) the total value of growth opportunities; and (c) early mover advantages, which magnify the value of growth options. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Systemic event prediction by an aggregate early warning system: An application to the Czech Republic

This work develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events over a short horizon of six quarters and a long horizon of 12 quarters on a panel of 14 countries, both advanced and developing. First, we build a financial stress index to identify the starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Second, early warning indicators for the assessment and prediction of systemic risk are selected in a two-step approach; we find relevant prediction horizons for each indicator by a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful indicators. Finally, we observe the performance of the constructed EWS over both horizons on the Czech data and find that the model over the long horizon outperforms the EWS over the short horizon. For both horizons, out-of-sample probability estimates do not deviate substantially from their in-sample estimates, indicating a good out-of-sample performance for the Czech Republic.     

Can Government Intervention in Childcare be Justified?

Childcare is not like other goods and services. Its inherent nature creates unusual challenges for efficient delivery by the market, while its usage can have social as well as private consequences. Government involvement in childcare may therefore be justified to improve the efficiency of delivery or achieve social objectives, but its effectiveness will depend on whether policy measures can better address the challenges of childcare provision than the market. This article reviews the justification for the recent rapid development of childcare policy in the UK and considers the potential benefits and drawbacks of this growing government intervention.