在全球化产业链条中加速升级换代——我国加工贸易的产业升级状况分析

本文认为，由跨国公司直接投资带动的加工贸易的发展，是发展中国家融入产业内分工，沿着全球化产业链条不断地由劳动密集型环节向技术密型环节提升，进而实现产业升级换代的有效而便捷的途径。本文对我国加工贸易的产业分布和产品性质进行了动态考察和调研分析。指出中国的加工贸易目前已进入由劳动密集型向技术密集型产业升级换代的阶段，其在国际分工中的地位已得到显著提升，通过对影响加工贸易升级换代诸因素的分析，本文对我国加工贸易发展提出了相应的政策建议。     

The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns

We investigate the determinants of direct office real estate returns by analyzing rents, capital appraisals, and total returns. A recently compiled global database of major cities in Asia, Europe, and the United States provides a unique opportunity to give a macro-view on the effects of economic growth and supply and demand factors on nominal real estate returns. The global database provides quarterly observations from 1986 to 1999. To address the smoothness problem of appraisal-based price data and regulated rents, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a dynamic panel-data model. The model allows us to combine the cross-sectional and time-series dimension in our quarterly data. We find that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, vacancy rate, and the available stock all have an effect on real estate returns.     

全球价值链动力机制与产业发展策略

在经济全球化时代,融入全球分工体系,是避免在全球化进程中被边缘化的前提条件。在搞清楚如何融入全球分工体系和融入该体系后如何发展问题上,就需要对全球价值链的动力机制有一个充分认识。全球价值链片断化的驱动类型有生产者、购买者和混合型等三种动力机制。不同驱动模式下产业集群形成方式、市场竞争规则和升级轨迹等也是不同的。本研究在全球价值链动力机制理论论述中,结合诸多实证分析,探讨了经济全球化过程中中国应该如何在与发达国家之间的分工合作和竞争中谋求产业升级,从而最终步入中上等发达国家行列。     

全球价值链理论与我国产业发展研究

随着生产和贸易全球化的不断深入,世界价值创造体系在全球出现了前所未有的垂直分离和再构。面对这一国际分工大转换的背景,本文旨在通过引入全球价值链理论对我国如何面对全球产业转移和竞争有一个由宏观到微观多层次多角度系统的认识。本文回顾了全球价值链理论20多年的形成历程,理清理论传承和主要研究思路;对全球价值链理论中的动力机制、治理结构、产业升级等诸多方面进行了概括性探究和由此引发的诸多发展启示;最后,给出了研究和应用全球价值链理论的一些总结和建议。     

嵌入全球价值链的地方产业集群发展--地方建筑陶瓷产业集群研究

以集群为发展模式的地方经济已逐渐纳入全球产业网络,它的竞争力提升,不仅需要挖掘集群的内部联系,更需要在全球价值链中与区域外的经济行为主体积极互动、不断调整自身嵌入全球产业价值链的方式,创造、保持和捕捉价值。文章以建筑陶瓷产业的实例分析为依托,阐述意大利、西班牙建筑陶瓷产业集群如何通过嵌入全球价值链实现集群的升级和发展,并控制全球产业的动态变化;探讨中国本土建筑陶瓷集群与国际建筑陶瓷集群间基于全球价值链的互动,对中国建筑陶瓷地方产业集群产生、发展、升级和区域经济带来的巨大影响;分析目前国内集群在全球价值链中面临的挑战,提出在全球产业视角下促进集群升级的可能途径。     

珠三角OEM企业持续成长的路径选择--基于全球价值链外包体系的视角

OEM企业是珠三角区域新型工业化的重要力量，其持续成长有利于提高珠三角产业国际竞争力。我们分析了OEM企业成长与全球价值链外包体系的动态演变．并归纳出全球价值链外包体系中的OEM企业的一般成长路径。我们将珠三角OEM企业划分为两大阵营，分别探讨了企业实现持续成长的路径选择：第一阵营主动承接价值链高端环节，一部分企业从OEM向ODM转变，另一些则走OEM与OBM相结合的成长模式．也鼓励大企业适当的相关多元化；第二阵营要“做大”OEM，实现规模经济，并向配套产业的方向发展。OEM企业持续成长还要有一个良好的外生环境，主要包括发展机遇、制度环境和文化环境等。     

Social networks in the global banking sector

We show that banks with shared social connections partner more often in the global syndicated loan market and that central banks in the network play dominant roles in various interbank transactions, indicating that social connections facilitate business connections. However, more centralized banks in the network also contribute significantly to the global systemic risk. Moreover, we find the soft information generated by social networks is particularly valuable when potential partners operate under different accounting and regulatory standards. Finally, we show that the recent banking crisis significantly limited the positive soft information effects of social networks in the global banking system.     

The Effects of Oil Price on the Korean Economy: A Global VAR Approach

This article empirically explores the effects of oil price on the Korean economy using a Global VAR model. First, we evaluate the average connectedness of oil price with the Korean domestic variables over the precrisis period. We then investigate the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean financial and real sectors during and after the global financial crisis through recursive estimation. It is found that the contribution of oil price becomes very large in the case of real exports, equity prices, and real output, but plays a much less prevalent role in the remaining cases. In the meantime, the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean economy has not changed during and after the global financial crisis. Interestingly, we find that the Korean economy is affected mostly by overseas financial conditions in the short-term but it becomes more susceptible to oil price fluctuations in the long run, suggesting that Korea’s reliance on energy imports leaves the economy exposed to volatility in energy prices.     

Sovereign Risk Contagion in East Asia: A Mixture of Time-Varying Copulas Approach

This study analyzes sovereign risk contagion between four East Asian economies (China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea) and its structural changes through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European Debt Crisis (EDC) by applying the mixture of time-varying copulas to those economies’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads.

This article first finds a strong contagion from the US and PIIGS economies to the East Asian sovereign CDS markets and intraregional contagion within the East Asian markets. Second, the impact of contagion is different according to whether it is measured by the linear (Gaussian) or the upper tail dependence. Third, Japan plays an important role in increasing the linear dependence whereas China and Korea are crucial in terms of the upper tail dependence. Lastly, the GFC has structurally increased the linear dependence but not the upper tail dependence between the East Asian sovereign CDS markets.     

Inequality and Income Distribution in Global Value Chains

Global value chains (GVCs), led by transnational corporations (TNCs), have reshaped the world division of labor over the past two decades. GVCs are pervasive in low technology manufacturing, such as textile and apparel, as well as in more advanced industries like automobiles, electronics, and machines. This hierarchical division of labor generates wild competition at the lower value-added stages of production, where low wages and low profit margins prevail for workers and contract manufacturers in developing countries. At the top of the hierarchy another kind of competition prevails, centered on the ability to monitor and control intellectual property rights related to innovation, finance, and marketing. We argue that GVCs have had crucial effects on income inequality and the appropriation of rents in modern capitalism.