海洋科技创新驱动区域经济增长影响效应分析

海洋经济被视为引领世界经济发展的新引擎.基于结构方程模型在经济学领域分析复杂关联因素中的优势,采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型研究海洋科技创新能力、蓝色经济发展和区域经济发展之间的关联效应,分析海洋科技与经济发展之间的内在作用机理.实证研究表明:海洋科技创新能力对蓝色经济发展具有显著的直接促进作用;引入蓝色经济作为中介变量形成传导路径,科技创新能力对驱动区域经济发展具有间接效应及明显的总体作用.     

Emotions,deliberations, and end‐of‐life products

Death is inevitable; yet, not all consumers prepare for death by purchasing end‐of‐life (EOL) products. Using the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the dual‐process model framework, this study aims to examine the role of emotions and cognitions in influencing consumers' decisions to engage in planning for death. A mixed methodology design was used. Study 1, a qualitative study, uncovered positive and negative emotions and deliberative reasoning that comprise consumers' EOL purchase decision process. Study 2, a quantitative study, confirmed that emotions and deliberations independently and jointly influenced consumers' EOL attitude and behavior and that emotions affected deliberations for both prepaid funerals and wills. Subjective norms outperformed attitude in predicting both products' purchase behavior. These finding supported the dual‐process model of behavior and the TRA in the EOL research context and contributed to the EOL literature by investigating the effects of emotions and deliberations concurrently; thus validating the important role of emotions in influencing EOL planning and purchase. In light of our findings, marketers could, after due cognizance of the morbidity and sensitivity of the topic, develop actionable promotional and segmentation strategies for EOL products and other emotion‐laden, unsought products and service.     

Regime switching rough Heston model

This model combines two important stylized features of volatility, the rough behavior consistent with a Hurst parameter less than , and the regime switching property consistent with more long-term economic considerations. It is nevertheless highly tractable in the sense of semianalytic formulae for European options, and permits a partial Monte Carlo method of similar computational speed as the semianalytic formula (at an appropriate number of Monte Carlo simulations). While option prices are relatively insensitive to the choice of Hurst parameter, introducing rough volatility allows for a better fit to the at-the-money skew.     

风机锚杆松弛对基础局压混凝土疲劳损伤的影响分析

为了对特定状态下风机构件疲劳损伤发展进行有效评估,以维持风机平稳运转,通过ABAQUS有限元软件建立起风机基础精细化整体模型,对锚杆松弛发育过程进行模拟,探究了疲劳荷载工况下局压混凝土的应力分布与变化规律,并采用德国劳埃德船级社推荐规范（GL）中混凝土疲劳计算方法对局压混凝土热点开展了疲劳寿命评估。结果表明：1）风机锚杆松弛会影响局压混凝土的应力分布,背风侧混凝土应力集中会更加突出,且应力会随着锚杆松弛加剧而同步增大,因此可将背风侧混凝土的受力情况作为锚杆松弛程度的判断依据;2）综合参考风机结构混凝土疲劳抗压强度设计值和疲劳寿命期望值2项指标评判后显示,锚杆松弛达到8%时,局压混凝土极有可能发生压碎失效,应当及时对松弛锚杆复加预紧力,避免锚杆松弛恶化发展。研究得到的锚杆松弛下风机基础局压混凝土的疲劳损伤规律,可为其在实际工程中的安全运维提供数据支撑。     

金融风险计量研究--基于VaR模型的分析

本文通过分析风险的本质涵义,提出了定量分析金融风险的路径;通过回顾对于金融风险定量研究的一些模型和方法,详细介绍了VaR模型及其估计技术,指出了风险定量技术的广阔应用前景。     

Methods of Partial Hedging

In this article we survey methods of dealing with the following problem: A financial agent is trying to hedge a claim C, without having enough initial capital to perform a perfect (super) replication. In particular, we describe results for minimizing the expected loss of hedging the claim C both in complete and incomplete continuous-time financial market models, and for maximizing the probability of perfect hedge in complete markets and markets with partial information. In these cases, the optimal strategy is in the form of a binary option on C, depending on the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the equivalent martingale measure which is optimal for a corresponding dual problem. We also present results on dynamic measures for the risk associated with the liability C, defined as the supremum over different scenarios of the minimal expected loss of hedging C. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

产业群内局部过度竞争的理论分析与对策

产业群强化了竞争,但是产业群内也出现了局部过度竞争。文章适时地对一般过度竞争概念加以完善,指出过度竞争存在整体与局部之分,并从产业群进入壁垒、产品差异化、社会均衡最优选择的角度出发,分析了产业群内局部过度竞争的形成机理。文章还运用塞洛普圆周模型,论证了产业群内的激烈竞争将会引起企业数目过多、价格上升等局部过度竞争现象。为了解决这些问题,文章从政府角度提出了相应的对策。     

Risk aversion and the dynamics of optimal liquidation strategies in illiquid markets

We consider the infinite-horizon optimal portfolio liquidation problem for a von Neumann–Morgenstern investor in the liquidity model of Almgren (Appl. Math. Finance 10:1–18, 2003). Using a stochastic control approach, we characterize the value function and the optimal strategy as classical solutions of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations. We furthermore analyze the sensitivities of the value function and the optimal strategy with respect to the various model parameters. In particular, we find that the optimal strategy is aggressive or passive in-the-money, respectively, if and only if the utility function displays increasing or decreasing risk aversion. Surprisingly, only few further monotonicity relations exist with respect to the other parameters. We point out in particular that the speed by which the remaining asset position is sold can be decreasing in the size of the position but increasing in the liquidity price impact.      

正确把握经济走势实现平稳快速增长

2003年中国经济增长存在有局部过热的特点。新一轮经济增长周期是我们在社会主义市场经济体制下宏观调控中遇到的第一个重要关口。局部过热会引起局部的、结构性物价上涨。而若发展到全局过热,仍会引起全面的通货膨胀。因此,要适时适度地进行宏观调控,保持经济继续平稳、较快地增长;在微观层面上,企业要有应对市场的安全应急机制。     

创业生态系统对海归创业人才效能的影响——以江苏省为例

基于创业生态系统和人才效能理论,采用偏最小二乘线性回归方法建模,利用江苏省人才公报统计数据,探索了创业生态系统对海归创业人才效能的影响。结果表明:资金、区域人力资本、创业平台、创新氛围和生活环境等方面的因素对海归创业人才效能有正向影响,其中创业平台和创新氛围两方面的因素起关键作用。最后,从建设创新创业平台建设、创新融资方式、提高区域整体人才素质三个方面,针对江苏省的海归创业人才管理工作提出了建议。