销售渠道风险管理

本文首先建立了一套用以评估销售渠道风险的指标体系，通过建立企业各销售渠道的物元模型，运用物元的可拓性，将销售渠道的建设和管理控制的指标量化，按照统一规范化运算，得出便于比较的优度，从而对各类渠道风险进行排序选择风险最底的渠道。最后，本文以一个算例对评估销售渠道风险模型进行了实证研究。     

当代青年大学生社会化的“崭新性”

青年大学生社会化问题，不仅是社会学、青年学的研究领域，而且是高校思想教育工作者探讨的对象。本文提出了在社会主义市场经济蓬勃发展的新时期，青年大学生社会化所面临的崭新任务、所具有的崭新意义以及崭新的实现途径。这些“崭新性”展示了青年大学生社会化的良好前景。     

市场结构、汇率转嫁与出口

汇率变化是影响出口贸易的重要因素。在传统的国际贸易理论中,虽然对汇率变化影响出口贸易的机制进行了详细分析,但它没有考虑到市场结构的影响。本文从市场结构的角度出发,分析在不完全竞争的市场结构下,拥有市场势力的企业的决策怎样影响到汇率的变动和产品的出口。本文的研究结果表明,在不完全竞争的市场结构下,汇率转嫁是不完全的,因此,只有大的持久的汇率贬值或升值才会对出口贸易量产生明显的效应。     

知识团队冲突的动因探析

知识经济时代，知识团队已经成为组织中重要的学习单元和绩效单元。知识团队因其成员多样性而具有自己的特征，知识团队冲突主要有个体特征和群体层面两个方面的动因。研究知识团队冲突的动因，可以为有效管理知识团队奠定基础。     

A note on cheap talk and burned money

Austen-Smith and Banks [Cheap talk and burned money, J. Econ. Theory 91(1) (2000) 1-16] study how money burning can expand the set of pure cheap talk equilibria of Crawford and Sobel [Strategic information transmission, Econometrica 50(6) (1982) 1431-1451]. I identify an error in the main Theorem of Austen-Smith and Banks, and provide a variant that preserves some of the important implications. I also prove that cheap talk can be influential with money burning if and only if it can be influential without money burning. This strengthens a result of Austen-Smith and Banks, but uncovers other errors in their analysis. Finally, an open conjecture of theirs is proved correct.     

Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule

Summary. A series of financial anomalies motivated the development of new theories that modify the rational expectations ideal. Two possibilities have been systematically explored. The literature on behavioral finance relaxes the assumption that agents form beliefs according to the laws of probability and assume, instead, that simpler heuristic rules are used. Another stream of the literature assumes that agents process information according to Bayes rule, but do not posses sufficient information to know the true data generating process. In this paper, Bayesian and Behavioral agents coexist and trade in a standard dynamic asset pricing model. A long-standing conjecture is demonstrated. It is shown that, under suitable assumptions, Bayesian agents drive Behavioral, non-Bayesian agents out of the market. Hence, asset prices are eventually determined under the Bayesian paradigm.Received: 3 June 2004, Revised: 17 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83.Preliminary versions have circulated under the titles Markets Favor Bayesian Models and Market Selection of Empirical Models under Limited Information. I thank Larry Blume, David Easley, Larry Epstein, Armando Gomes, Bruce Hansen, Lars Hansen, Richard Kihlstrom, Grace Koo, George Mailath, Werner Ploberger, Andrew Postlewaite and Shakeeb Khan for useful comments. I also thank participants at the NBER GE meetings, Evolutionary Finance conference in Zurich, Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, the theory seminar at Brown, Chicago, Harvard-MIT, Minnesota, Penn and Wisconsin. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science Foundation Grant SES 0109650.     

中新比较优势和贸易互补性的实证分析

运用贸易结合度指数、显性比较优势指数和贸易特化系数对中新双边贸易的现状和发展趋势、比较优势和贸易互补性进行了实证分析。基于产业内分工、相似需求和外国直接投资的产业内互补成为中新两国贸易关系的主要特征。     

单位运输成本变化的供应链模型分析

在需求信息不确定情况下，由一个供应商和一个经销商构成两级供应链系统，考虑谊系统在商品边际运输费用随订货量增加而递减的情况，分析经销商采集需求不确定信息的必要备件，指出供销双方共享需求不确定信息的条件，以厦供应链系统中多个经销商联合订货的优势。     

同类产品的定价模型研究

针对完全市场经济条件下运行的库存-销售系统中同类产品定价问题,提出了多产品组合定价决策模型.考虑到多产品的需求价格弹性和交叉弹性的影响,假定在已知价格浮动比例的情况下为产品制定投放市场价,使得价格发生调整后产品在一段时期内取得的投资收益最大,从而建立了一般化的二次规划模型.最后给出两种产品组合定价决策的案例,用二次规划的有效集法计算获得最优定价结果,对于多产品组合定价问题具有理论和实际价值.     

深圳股市对股权分置改革有何反应——来自第二批试点公司的实证检验

本文以深圳股市第二批试点公司为研究样本，通过赢家、输家股票组合超常日收益率的统计分析。以及累积超常日收益率的趋势分析，研究深圳股市对股权分置改革的短期反应。实证检验结果表明。在短期内，深圳股市存在过度反应。并且在公司股改预案披露后30个左右交易日，市场做出反向修正．