Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: new evidence

This study investigates the impacts of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indexes of China and the G7 countries on Chinese stock market volatility and further constructs a new diffusion index based on these indexes using principal component analysis (PCA) to achieve enhanced predictive ability. The in-sample results indicate that the EPU indexes of China and some of the G7 countries show a significantly negative impact on future volatility. Moreover, our constructed diffusion index also has a significantly negative impact. Furthermore, the out-of-sample results show that this diffusion index exhibits a significantly higher forecast accuracy than the EPU itself and combination forecasts. Finally, various robustness checks are consistent with our main conclusions. Overall, we construct a new and useful indicator that can substantially increase forecast accuracy with respect to the Chinese stock market.     

评价疫苗产品对成本-效果的长期影响的必要性探讨——基于儿童七价肺炎结合疫苗的经济性评价

目的从长期研究视角出发,对将七价肺炎链球菌结合疫苗纳入免疫规划方案开展经济学分析,探讨对疫苗产品开展成本-效果分析时进行长期评价的重要性。方法从支付方的研究角度,构建Markov模型,结合北京市的成本数据和我国台湾地区健保局的流行病学数据,模拟在北京市将PCV7纳入免疫规划方案,实施10年后的成本效果进行研究。结果经过成本-效果分析得出,免疫规划方案实施10年期间,在北京市共避免6390人死亡、获得6393个QALYs,其中以2岁以下儿童和65岁以上老人受到的保护效果最显著。而且从长远来看,对全人群而言,方案实施10年使得总成本可节约7.14元/人。结论在进行疫苗类产品成本-效果分析时,关注其对成本、效果长期影响至关重要。     

Politics of Trade in the USA and in the Obama Administration: Implications for Asian Regionalism

Over the next four years, the Obama administration will face a series of strategic choices in forging policies to respond to a growing momentum for advances in Asian regional structures. Though faced with domestic political challenges; not least from within his own Democratic party – President Obama and his advisers will need to set a course for the reassertion of US leadership in constructing a trans-Pacific vision, through new US-based free trade agreements, signing on to existing agreements such as the P-4 (Singapore, New Zealand, Brunei, the Philippines), or consolidating existing free trade agreements among Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) nations. In pursuing this vision, the US should take advantage of the fact that the next three APEC leaders meetings are in Singapore (2009), Japan (2010), and the USA (2011); a sequence ripe for synergistic teamwork.     

Inflation and inequality

Cross-country evidence on inflation and income inequality suggests that they are positively related. This article explores the hypothesis that this correlation is the outcome of a distributional conflict underlying the determination of government policies. A political economy model is presented in which equilibrium inflation is positively related to the degree of inequality in income due to the relative vulnerability to inflation of low income households.     

Optimal abatement of sulphur emissions in Europe

This study presents a mathematical model for determining cost-effective emissions' control strategies in Europe, by minimizing sulphur abatement costs subject to different pollution control targets. The purpose is to compare the efficiency of a uniform percentage emissions reduction with a scenario that takes variation in environmental conditions into account. Underlying the proposed model is the belief that a full cost-benefit analysis of acid rain abatement is infeasible. The model focuses on the costs of abatement and provides an estimation of the gains (or losses) that countries could achieve if they co-operate in their policies rather than act independently.     

The Political Economy of Xenophobia and Distribution: The Case of Denmark*

For the first time in some years, a conservative government came to power in Denmark in 2001, due primarily to the citizenry's disaffection with social‐democratic policies on immigration. We represent political competition in Denmark as taking place over two issues—the size of the public sector and immigration—and model political equilibrium using the party unanimity Nash equilibrium (PUNE) concept, which generates equilibria on multi‐dimensional policy spaces where parties form endogenously. By fitting the model to Danish data, we argue that citizen xenophobia may be expected to decrease the size of the Danish public sector by an amount between 12% and 36% of one standard deviation of the probability distribution of citizens' ideal points of the size of the public sector.     

黑龙江省主要腐植酸原料资源的性质及生物活性研究

黑龙江省腐植酸的主要原料泥炭、褐煤、风化煤资源的储量和质量居全国前列；分析了具有代表性的腐植酸原料资源的理化性质，在分析对比评价的基础上，根据提取出的腐植酸的抗硬水能力、E4／E6值和生物活性，提出了适宜的应用方法和方向。     

东亚产业内贸易与东亚国际生产分工网络浅析——以机械类产品为例

本文以我国与东亚国家机械类产品（SITC7）产业内贸易为例，首先说明了SITC7在我国与东亚国家贸易中的重要地位及其产业内贸易水平，接着从FDI、零部件贸易和公司内贸易三大方面阐述了东亚产业内贸易的内在机制——东亚国际生产分工网络。同时，我国的加工贸易和“三资企业”也对产业内贸易起到了极大的促进作用。