On Choosing and Bounding Probability Metrics

When studying convergence of measures, an important issue is the choice of probability metric. We provide a summary and some new results concerning bounds among some important probability metrics/distances that are used by statisticians and probabilists. Knowledge of other metrics can provide a means of deriving bounds for another one in an applied problem. Considering other metrics can also provide alternate insights. We also give examples that show that rates of convergence can strongly depend on the metric chosen. Careful consideration is necessary when choosing a metric.     

Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models

Nine macroeconomic variables are forecast in a real-time scenario using a variety of flexible specification, fixed specification, linear, and nonlinear econometric models. All models are allowed to evolve through time, and our analysis focuses on model selection and performance. In the context of real-time forecasts, flexible specification models (including linear autoregressive models with exogenous variables and nonlinear artificial neural networks) appear to offer a useful and viable alternative to less flexible fixed specification linear models for a subset of the economic variables which we examine, particularly at forecast horizons greater than 1-step ahead. We speculate that one reason for this result is that the economy is evolving (rather slowly) over time. This feature cannot easily be captured by fixed specification linear models, however, and manifests itself in the form of evolving coefficient estimates. We also provide additional evidence supporting the claim that models which ‘win’ based on one model selection criterion (say a squared error measure) do not necessarily win when an alternative selection criterion is used (say a confusion rate measure), thus highlighting the importance of the particular cost function which is used by forecasters and ‘end-users’ to evaluate their models. A wide variety of different model selection criteria and statistical tests are used to illustrate our findings.     

商业银行前台操作风险表现及其防范措施研究

防范银行前台操作风险对降低金融案件具有重要意义,在归纳总结了商业银行前台操作风险典型表现的基础上,提出了防范前台风险发生的措施。     

Does subsidised temporary employment get the unemployed back to work? Aneconometric analysis of two different schemes

Subsidised employment is an important tool of active labour market policies to improve the reemployment chances of the unemployed. Using unusually informative individual data from administrative records, we investigate the effects of two different schemes of subsidised temporary employment implemented in Switzerland: non-profit employment programmes (EP) and a subsidy for temporary jobs (TEMP) in private and public firms. Econometric matching methods show that TEMP is more successful than EP in getting the unemployed back to work. Compared to not participating in any programme, EP and TEMP are ineffective for unemployed who find jobs easily anyway or have a short unemployment spell. For potential and actual long-term unemployed, both programmes may have positive effects, but the effect of TEMP is larger.     

增值销售——企业发展的新起点

本文通过对技术、管理方面日新月异发展现状的分析,指出目前企业正面临着销售困难这一实际问题,并提出了相应的解决方案,即将企业内外部业务合理化改造与实现客户满意有机地结合,才能实现企业增值销售。     

The Morishima gross elasticity of substitution

We show that the Hotelling–Lau elasticity of substitution, an extension of the Allen–Uzawa elasticity to allow for optimal output-quantity (or utility) responses to changes in factor prices, inherits all of the failings of the Allen–Uzawa elasticity identified by Blackorby and Russell [(1989) Am Econ Rev 79: 882–888]. An analogous extension of the Morishima elasticity of substitution to allow for output quantity changes preserves the salient properties of the original Hicksian notion of elasticity of substitution. We thank Paolo Bertoletti for drawing our attention to the issue addressed in this paper and for his comments on an earlier draft.     

我国企业财务管理目标的现实选择

随着会计国际化进程的进一步发展，传统的财务管理已远不能适应现代企业管理的需要。企业要想在激烈的市场竞争中得以生存和发展，就必须适应现代企业制度的要求，进一步加强企业财务管理，而其首要问题是必须树立现代企业财务管理的总目标。     

中国经济增长空间相关性研究——基于"长三角"与"珠三角"的实证

本文建立了两套回归模型:无空间相关变量的单向和双向固定效应模型;有空间相关变量的单向和双向固定效应模型。对比分析后得出的结论有:"长三角"和"珠三角"区域内部的确存在经济增长的空间相关性,"珠三角"区域内部经济增长的空间相关性略大于"长三角"区域,但两者在统计上并没有显著的差别;两个地区都存在经济增长的β收敛,但"珠三角"地区呈现出更强的收敛性;对于影响"长三角"和"珠三角"经济增长的因素,有些相同和不同点值得关注。     

分形理论在货运量预测中的应用探讨

在已有研究的基础上，提出了一种新的分形预测模型——等长度递补变维分形模型。首先阐述了等长度递补变维分形模型的基本原理；然后利用该模型对1990年～2004年我国货运量进行了预测，并利用后验差方法分析了模型的精度；最后利用模型预测了2005年～2010年我国货运量及其构成（铁路、公路和水运各自所占比重）.     

基于DEA的营业预算——以X公司为例

预算是企业在特定时期内获得资源和使用资源的详细说明。任何资源都具有稀缺性,所以在资源的使用中要关注投入产出的效率问题。本文以X公司生产经营实例为背景,将数据包络分析法运用于企业的预算工作之中,对以效率为导向的预算方法进行了初步尝试。