Bayesian forecasting and portfolio decisions using dynamic dependent sparse factor models

We extend the recently introduced latent threshold dynamic models to include dependencies among the dynamic latent factors which underlie multivariate volatility. With an ability to induce time-varying sparsity in factor loadings, these models now also allow time-varying correlations among factors, which may be exploited in order to improve volatility forecasts. We couple multi-period, out-of-sample forecasting with portfolio analysis using standard and novel benchmark neutral portfolios. Detailed studies of stock index and FX time series include: multi-period, out-of-sample forecasting, statistical model comparisons, and portfolio performance testing using raw returns, risk-adjusted returns and portfolio volatility. We find uniform improvements on all measures relative to standard dynamic factor models. This is due to the parsimony of latent threshold models and their ability to exploit between-factor correlations so as to improve the characterization and prediction of volatility. These advances will be of interest to financial analysts, investors and practitioners, as well as to modeling researchers.     

基于PCAIDS模型的单边价格效应模拟——以国际铁矿石巨头力拓与必和必拓拟议的兼并为例

本文基于爱泼斯坦和鲁宾菲尔德提出的PCAIDS 模型,模拟了国际铁矿石生产和出口巨头力拓与必和必拓之间2007 年10 月提出的兼并的单边效应.研究发现,该兼并对世界铁矿石市场价格将产生重要影响,特别是兼并后形成的新企业将大幅度提高其产品的价格.兼并也会引起印度、巴西和南非铁矿石提价,尽管幅度要比"两拓"要小一些.中国的进口铁矿石主要来自于两拓、巴西、印度和南非,因此,如果"两拓"兼并将极大地提高我国进口铁矿石的成本.     

大庆油田突发事件应急指挥管理系统建设探索

本文探讨利用油田现有的各种资源,搭建应急指挥平台,从而最大限度地降低大庆油田公司各类突发事件的发生概率,减少发生突发事件时所造成的经济损失和社会影响,确保油田生产生活秩序的平稳。     

Discounting long run average growth in stochastic dynamic programs

Summary. Finding solutions to the Bellman equation often relies on restrictive boundedness assumptions. In this paper we develop a method of proof that allows to dispense with the assumption that returns are bounded from above. In applications our assumptions only imply that long run average (expected) growth is sufficiently discounted, in sharp contrast with classical assumptions either absolutely bounding growth or bounding each period (instead of long run) maximum (instead of average) growth. We discuss our work in relation to the literature and provide several examples. Received: July 26, 2000; revised version: July 10, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I am specially grateful to Cuong Le Van and to anonymous referee for detecting an error in a previous version of this paper and for suggestions that sensibly improved the paper. Comments and suggestions are also acknowledged to Michele Boldrin, Raouf Boucekkine, Fabrice Collard, Tim Kehoe, Omar Licandro, and Luis Puch. I am also indebted to participants to the III Summer School on Economic Theory held at the Universidade de Vigo, the Macroeconomics Workshop at the Universitat Autò}noma de Barcelona, and the Econometrics Seminar at Tilburg University. Financial support from the Belgian government, under project PAI P4/01, at the IRES-UCL, from a European Marie Curie fellowship, Grant HPMF-CT-1999-00410, at the CEPREMAP, and from IVIE and Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología and FEDER, under project BEC2001-0535, at the Universidad de Alicante, is gratefully acknowledged.     

财务动态治理论纲

传统财务治理理论侧重于财务治理结构和权利分布状态等静态范畴的研究,而忽略了财务动态治理的专门研究.财务治理可分解为基于企业公平的财务静态治理和基于企业效率的财务动态治理,它在本质上是一个二元价值体系,在实践上表现为企业公平和效率的并行与平衡.财务动态治理是对传统财务治理的继承和超越,它是剩余公司治理的集中领域和公司动态治理的核心,其理论基础溯源于企业产权契约理论、公司治理理论、公允价值会计计量理论和财务治理理论.以不完全合同中的完备部分和不完备部分为标准,财权可划分为通用财权和剩余财权.剩余财权配置是财务动态治理的核心,财务动态治理的基本内容包括动态治理结构、治理机制和治理行为规范.     

中国居民消费价格指数预测

2012年下半年,中国居民消费价格指数将保持在2%左右,不会发生大的通货膨胀和通货紧缩。为避免价格大起大落,实现经济可持续发展,要坦然面对居民消费价格指数的低位运行,积极扩大消费需求;通过立法和政策引导,鼓励企业诚信经营,生产出消费者需要且信赖的产品;大力淘汰落后产能,促进行业结构调整优化和整体竞争力的提升。     

A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting

This paper considers methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series in a framework where the number of predictors, N, is too large to apply traditional regression models but not sufficiently large to resort to statistical inference based on double asymptotics. Our interest is motivated by a body of empirical research suggesting that popular data-rich prediction methods perform best when N ranges from 20 to 40. In order to accomplish our goal, we resort to partial least squares and principal component regression to consistently estimate a stable dynamic regression model with many predictors as only the number of observations, T, diverges. We show both by simulations and empirical applications that the considered methods, especially partial least squares, compare well to models that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting.     

An Introduction to the Symposium on the Use of Simulation in Applied Industrial Organization

Simulation offers a rigorous methodology for addressing policy or litigation issues that require a comparison of an observed state of the world with an unobserved one. Simulation employs a calibrated, structural oligopoly model to describe the unobserved state of the world. Calibration involves reliance on real-world observations to set the key parameter values in the model. Simulation is an increasingly important tool of the industrial organization economist, particularly in analyzing the competitive effects of mergers. Papers in this symposium illustrate merger simulations in a variety of contexts and one other application of simulation.     

The dynamics of innovation and horizontal differentiation

We study innovation in a dynamic stochastic discrete-time duopoly with endogenous horizontal differentiation. Innovation takes the form of a quality ladder; horizontal differentiation is Hotelling competition. We compute Markov-perfect equilibria and study the effects on long-run innovation of changes in taste heterogeneity (transport costs) and firms' costs of relocating products. Innovation rises as the industry's long-run position moves toward products that are permanently co-located in the space of horizontal tastes. A large enough fall in taste heterogeneity will raise long-run innovation, while more costly product relocation lowers innovation if taste heterogeneity is high, and raises it otherwise.     

Micro-foundation for a constant elasticity of substitution production function through mechanization

We consider an increase in the range of capital use as a form of mechanization. A constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function is dynamically derived from Leontief production functions through the endogenous complementary relationship between capital accumulation and mechanization. This implies that a CES production function can be resolved into technological change that does not involve changes in total factor productivity. Furthermore, using the normalizing procedure of the CES production function developed by de La Grandville [de La Grandville, O., 1989. In quest of the Slutsky diamond. American Economic Review 79, 468–481], we investigate how mechanization is related to the elasticity of substitution in our endogenous growth model.