高投资、宏观成本与经济增长的持续性

过去20多年,中国高投资—高增长的发展模式以宏观成本积累为代价。增长是中国今后相当长时期的主题,但是以高成本为代价的高投资—高增长发展模式的持续性如何?本文从理论上说明了中国高投资的政府激励机制及宏观成本边界和高成本增长的临界点;进而指出,在开放经济中,资本流动、外部需求和供给冲击构成高成本投资模式的现实约束,政府必须权衡粗放式高增长的宏观收益和成本,制定相应的政策来约束低效率的投资行为,实现全社会的福利优化。     

中国产业结构变迁与经济增长的实证分析

本文对我国1978～2002年产业结构变化状况和产业结构变化趋势进行定量分析,考察产业结构变动引起各产业部门对经济增长的贡献和作用的相应变化.实证检验表明,这一时期我国产业结构变动基本符合工业化发展的演变规律,但从我国经济发展的要求看,产业结构转换仍滞后于总量增长的要求;进一步优化产业结构,需要着力解决"三农"问题、提升企业的国际竞争力、加快发展第三产业.     

中国农村经济制度变迁与农业增长——对1978—2004年中国农业增长的实证分析

本文对1978—2004年中国农业增长进行了理论与经验两方面的分析。分析的结果是,在农业生产中实施的不同土地制度对从事农业生产的人们形成不同的激励,而在农业生产和经营中推行的价格、财税制度变革又以形成的利益空间影响从事农业生产和经营的人们的积极性,因此,制度变迁是中国改革开放后农业增长的决定性因素。文章借助计量和统计方法,对1978—2004年不同阶段内农村土地制度和价格、财税制度变化影响农业增长的情况进行了检验,用以说明制度变迁的突出贡献。由此可以建议,应该把农村经济制度创新作为实现农业持续增长的主要思路。     

增长失衡与政府责任——基于社会性支出角度的分析

当前中国的发展出现了以国富与民生关系失衡为本质特征的增长失衡。本文从教育、医疗和社会保障等与民生有关的政府责任切入,指出当前中国与民生状况直接相关的政府社会性支出的不足,是导致增长失衡的重要原因。为此,政府应在提供教育、医疗和社会保障等方面承担起基本的责任,加快财政支出结构转型,增加社会性支出的比重,改善民生状况,纠正增长失衡;并通过社会性支出的增加,促进人力资本积累,推动增长路径的转变,实现经济长期健康发展。     

人力资本与区域全要素生产率分析

本文采用Malmquist指数分析了我国30个省级行政区1996—2003年的全要素生产率(TFP)增长,并将其分解为技术进步指数和效率变化指数。为了减少计算偏差,我们在使用承认无效率项存在的生产前沿技术的同时,引入了人力资本要素。本文的分析结果表明我国的人力资本水平增长迅速,30个省区的经济增长效率差距逐年扩大。同时我们发现在引入人力资本要素后,1996—2003年区域全要素生产率的增长得益于技术进步;如果不考虑人力资本存量,则低估了同期的效率提高程度,而高估了期间的技术进步指数。     

Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

This paper uses a tractable macroeconomic model with idiosyncratic human capital risk and incomplete markets to analyze the growth and welfare effects of business cycles. The analysis is based on the assumption that the elimination of business cycles eliminates the variation in idiosyncratic risk. The paper shows that a reduction in the variation in idiosyncratic risk decreases the ratio of physical to human capital and increases the total investment return and welfare. If the degree of risk aversion is less than or equal to one, then economic growth is enhanced. This paper also provides a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of business cycles based on a calibrated version of the model. Even for relatively small degrees of risk aversion (around one) the model implies that the elimination of business cycles has substantial effects on investment in physical and human capital, economic growth, and welfare.     

地方官员与经济增长——来自中国省长、省委书记交流的证据

通常认为地方官员在我国经济发展中扮演着积极角色,近来国家也有意通过干部交流促进省区平衡发展,但国内还没有定量识别地方官员影响经济增长的文献。本文基于1978—2005年间省长(书记)交流样本构造了省长(书记)与省区相匹配的面板数据,系统地实证分析省长(书记)交流对流入省区经济增长的影响(即省长交流效应),结果发现,整体而言,省长交流能够使流入地的经济增长速度提高1个百分点左右;这种省长交流效应是通过在流入地采取大力发展二产、重视一产、忽视三产的产业发展取向实现的。本文的发现是稳健的,有助于增进对加强干部交流破解省区发展不平衡的理解。     

Human capital composition, growth and development: an R&D growth model versus data

The effect of human capital composition on growth and development has been somewhat neglected in economic literature. However, evidence has suggested the importance of engineering and technical (high-tech) skills to economic growth, and international organizations have suggested their shortage in developed countries. Using a standard increasing variety growth model, we propose various measures of human capital composition that are related with economic growth and development. When compared to data, the model does well in explaining the rate of growth and the level of development as a function of these measures. “the British colonies had a better educated population (...). Education was secular with emphasis on pragmatic skills and yankee ingenuity (...). The 13 British colonies had nine universities in 1776 for 2.5 million people. New Spain, with 5 million, had only two universities (...) which concentrated on theology and law.” –(Maddison, 2001)     

Endogenous structural change and crisis in a multiple time-scales growth model

The slow and endogenous twist of economic macro-structure makes up an important evolutionary feature of capitalist economies, and may be at the root of structural crisis. In this line, a Goodwinian growth model with increasing returns and profit-sharing that tries to picture a simple scenario of the seventies crisis is considered. It is shown that the exhaustion of the Kaldor-Verdoorn “productivity law” can entail, in a nonlinear framework, a “catastrophic” bifurcation from a “high” to a “low” growth path. Slow/fast dynamical systems then allow one to formalize a multiple time-scales dynamics where the growth path is shaped by the structural framework in which it takes place, but has also a long -un feedback. Structural change and crisis appear as long term and endogenous outcomes.     

中国和印度不平衡发展的比较研究

本文考察了中国和印度近年来经济增长不平衡的情况,并分析了不平衡增长对不均等和贫困的影响。通过对家庭调查数据和官方加总数据的分析,本文发现增长存在不平衡——区域间、产业间和家庭层面上,这表明减贫工作进展不平衡,若增长更平衡,减贫效果可能更好;另外,收入不均等程度也在提高。本文探讨了增长不平衡及其应引起重视的原因。具体讨论围绕"有利的"和"不利的"不均等两个概念展开——不均等与不平衡增长对公平性以及长期增长与发展的有利或不利影响。我们认为,需要制定相关政策,保持有利的不均等——继续鼓励创新和投资,同时降低不利的不均等的程度,尤其是通过人力资本和农村基础设施投资,帮助贫困人口参与市场。