中国A股市场IPO抑价影响因素的实证研究

IPO抑价是全球资本市场的普遍现象,是一级市场定价效率低下和二级市场交易不规范的具体表现。IPO抑价使得资本市场资源配置效率低,同时也会产生众多金融风险。在中国IPO抑价率过高,普遍达到100%以上,超过了国外成熟市场和很多的新兴市场。在对国内外相关研究进行综述之后,再构建模型引入实证分析,对理论在国内的适用性进行研究进而探寻导致IPO抑价的原因。信息不对称是导致IPO抑价的主要原因,同时承销商声誉、"公司信号"、资本市场"羊群效应"也有一定的影响。     

Role of income diversification in reducing forest reliance: Evidence from 1838 rural households in China

Among a number of households worldwide, forest use and income diversification have been seen as substitute livelihood strategies: farmers with more diverse income sources face a higher opportunity cost in harvesting forests and so tend to rely less on forestry resources. The current study uses rural household survey data captured in the Chinese provinces of Fujian, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi. It applies a Heckman regression model and a quantile regression model to determine the effect of income diversification on forest dependence. The three main findings of this study are as follows. (1) The mean income diversification index values in Fujian, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi are 1.81, 1.46, 1.63, and 2.00, respectively; this indicates that livelihood activities within the study areas are limited. (2) When the income diversification index increases by 10%, the proportion of forest income to total income within the study areas decreases by 4–8%; this indicates that income diversification can significantly reduce a household's dependence on forest resources, especially among the poorest households. (3) For the top 20% of high-income households, the effect of income diversification on forest dependence is insignificant, but for the bottom 20% of low-income households, income diversification has a major impact in terms of reducing their forest reliance (6–10%). The findings of this study will help inform the design of alternative policies that could alleviate pressure relating to forest-resource protection.     

Towards a ‘new normal’ growth strategy: China in comparative perspective

China’s move towards a new normal has been motivated by domestic factors and accelerated by the decline in export opportunities to developed countries. This decline, combined with the knock-on effects of China’s growth adjustments, is disrupting the favourable external environment that made developing countries’ export-led development strategies viable. This paper concentrates on a rebalancing of developing countries’ growth strategies towards a greater weight of household consumption as a potential alternative and discusses three challenges – market size, domestic purchasing power and balance-of-payments constraints. Concentrating on the latter, it analyses changes in sectoral compositions of consumer demand and patterns of international trade. Results point to the risk that a shift in growth strategy causes an import surge. The paper’s findings indicate the scope and speed of required product innovation that would prevent a rebalancing of growth strategies towards a greater role of consumption from running into balance-of-payments constraints.     

Sustainable tourism development and residents’ perceptions in World Heritage Site destinations

Set in Malaysia’s Lenggong Valley World Heritage Site (WHS), this paper uses stakeholder theory to explore the heterogeneity of positive and negative perceptions among residents and their effects on residents’ support for and participation in sustainable tourism development. Data from 221 completed questionnaire surveys revealed heterogeneous negative perceptions across residents’ age, level of education and economic involvement in tourism. Moreover, residents’ positive perceptions had a positive effect on their support for and participation in tourism development. This study contributes to the resident perception literature by using stakeholder theory to conceptualise the heterogeneity of residents’ perceptions and by examining the effects of those perceptions on their support for and participation in tourism development in a rural WHS destination in the developing world. Furthermore, the findings of this study have practical implications for local authorities aiming to improve residents’ support and participation in tourism planning for sustaining tourism development.     

On estimating long-run effects in models with lagged dependent variables

A common procedure in economics is to estimate long-run effects from models with lagged dependent variables. For example, macro panel studies frequently are concerned with estimating the long-run impacts of fiscal policy, international aid, or foreign investment.Our analysis points out the hazards of this practice. We use Monte Carlo experiments to demonstrate that estimating long-run impacts from dynamic models produces unreliable results.Biases can be substantial, sample ranges very wide, and hypothesis tests can be rendered useless in realistic data environments. There are three reasons for this poor performance. First, OLS estimates of the coefficient of a lagged dependent variable are downwardly biased in finite samples. Second, small biases in the estimate of the lagged, dependent variable coefficient are magnified in the calculation of long-run effects. And third, and perhaps most importantly, the statistical distribution associated with estimates of the LRP is complicated, heavy-tailed, and difficult to use for hypothesis testing. While many of the underlying problems have been long-known in the literature, the continued widespread use of the associated empirical procedures suggests that researchers are unaware of the extent and severity of the estimation problems. This study aims to illustrate their practical importance for applied research.     

Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan

We investigate the determinants of the demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by commercial banks in Japan. In particular, by estimating portfolio equations for JGB demand and bank loans, based on a panel data set from the late 1990s to the 2000s, we rigorously test the popular assertion that the long stagnation of the real economy caused a shift in the portfolios of commercial banks from bank lending to JGBs. We find that the popular assertion is not empirically supported. Rather, the portfolio shift from loans to JGBs has been caused by a fall in the ratio of the loan rate to unit lending costs, or the bank’s price–cost margin for lending.     

小农户合作生产影响因素实证分析

[目的]分析小农户合作生产意愿及其影响因素,以促进小农户发展多样化的联合与合作,提升小农户组织化程度。[方法]首先分类分层确定样本县、样本村,随机分类确定样本户,然后通过访谈和问卷调查获取农户数据,并利用描述性统计和Logistic模型对农户数据进行分析验证。[结果](1)农户土地经营规模小,种植结构单一,非农收入比重高,农业兼业化严重;(1)描述性分析表明,土地规模、人均农业纯收入、农机、农业社会化服务、县域经济、土地转出意愿对农户合作生产具有正向影响,家庭人口数量、非农收入对农户合作生产影响为负;(2)Logistic模型分析表明,对农户合作生产有显著影响的因素为非农收入、农业社会化服务支出和土地转出意愿。[结论]小农户合作生产意愿一般,农业社会化服务支出、土地转出意愿对小农户合作生产具有正向影响,非农收入对农户合作生产具有负向影响。     

地方人大中的地域代表现象探析——基于五省市人大代表建议的内容分析

本文试图探析在中国地方人大中是否存在地域性代表及其相关因素。通过收集和分析2017年国内五省市人大收到的近四千条代表建议,发现在地方人大代表的履职行为中,一定范围内存在从整体资源中为选区争取利益的现象。进一步回归分析的结果显示:来自经济发展水平相对较低的地区的代表,更倾向于提出地域性建议;由代表联名提出的建议更可能是地域性建议;担任地方党政领导职务的省市人大代表,在提出建议时更倾向于提出地域性建议。上述实证发现对中国地方人大地域性代表的实现机制提供了初步启发性证据,也有助于丰富我们对非竞选体制下的政治代表性和回应性机制的理解。     

Understanding the impacts of ‘Grain for Green’ land management practice on land greening dynamics over the Loess Plateau of China

Land greening in China is regarded as contributing a great deal to greening of the Earth. The phenomenon is mainly attributed to climate change, arising atmospheric CO₂ and ‘Grain for Green’ (GFG) land management policies. However, limited knowledge is known how much land greening is from contributions of the GFG practice. Therefore, the study took the typical region of the GFG practice, the Loess Plateau, as the study area, and used 1982–2015 satellite-observed GIMMS3g normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, ERA-Interim climatic variables (precipitation, temperature and solar radiation) and atmospheric CO₂ concentration data with the help of a developed TPRC-based NDVI model to derive GFG-induced NDVI after 1999. Furthermore, this study tracked the spatial-temporal dynamics of GFG-induced NDVI and assessed contributions of the GFG practice to regional vegetation changes. Results showed that satellite-observed NDVI and TPRC-based NDVI both exhibited an increasing spatial pattern from the northwestern to southeastern Loess Plateau, but their greening trends were separately 0.0022 and 0.0009 per year in 1982–2015 (p < 0.05). Note that the satellite-observed greening trend was much steeper with a slope of 0.0056 per year after 2006 (p < 0.05). The subsequent analyses documented that GFG-induced land greening were largely responsible for the steep trend. In space, evident greening patterns began to be observed in the central Loess Plateau from 2006 to 2008, afterwards expanded towards eastern and southwestern Loess Plateau. In 2011–2015, the increase magnitude of GFG-induced land greening in the Loess Plateau averagely accounted for 8.5 % in comparison to estimated TPRC-based NDVI, but in six natural zones were various, ranging from 3.2%–15.7%. In some regions of central Loess Plateau, GFG-induced NDVI contributed even more than 20 % to vegetation increase. This study highlights that land use management contributes more to land greening dynamics over the Loess Plateau compared to climate change and arising atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These findings likely provide some valuable information for curbing or enhancing specific-location vegetation changes in future regional land management and planning.