Trade credit and supplier competition

This paper examines how competition among suppliers affects their willingness to provide trade credit financing. Trade credit extended by a supplier to a cash constrained retailer allows the latter to increase cash purchases from its other suppliers, leading to a free rider problem. A supplier that represents a smaller share of the retailer’s purchases internalizes a smaller part of the benefit from increased spending by the retailer and, as a result, extends less trade credit relative to its sales. In consequence, retailers with dispersed suppliers obtain less trade credit than those whose suppliers are more concentrated. The free rider problem is especially detrimental to a trade creditor when the free-riding suppliers are its product market competitors, leading to a negative relation between product substitutability among suppliers to a given retailer and trade credit that the former provide to the latter. We test the model using both simulated and real data. The estimated relations are consistent with the model’s predictions and are statistically and economically significant.     

Trade and dietary diversity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

In public and academic debates, the linkages between agricultural markets and nutrition across the world are vividly discussed. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing the relationship between greater openness to trade and dietary diversity. It focuses on the post-communist countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia where trade reforms triggered growth in trade flows and foreign direct investment, which in turn affected food systems in these countries. This shift provides a natural experiment for studying the effects of trade openness on agricultural markets and consumer behaviour. Reduction in trade barriers, for instance in the context of the accession to the WTO and the EU, and the gradual integration with world markets after 1991 had implications for diets through changes in production, prices and incomes. We utilize country-level panel data for 26 post-communist countries in the period 1996–2013 to assess the effects of trade costs, agricultural trade openness and incomes on dietary diversity measured by the Shannon entropy index. The results from fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation are consistent with previous findings that income growth affects dietary diversity positively. They also provide novel evidence that trade barriers reduce variety of products available in domestic markets, in particular fruits and vegetables.     

Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia

This paper studies the relationship between trade openness and output growth for a sample of twenty-three Asian countries using both a static OLS and a dynamic ECM estimation models. At the country specific level, the findings of this study provide robust empirical evidence indicating that higher revealed trade openness is not the main engine explaining the Asian economic-growth miracle. In particular, the authors find that physical capital accumulation is at the core of the observed long-run output per worker growth. At the regional level, the authors observe a marked difference between the pre and post 1997–1998 financial crisis, whereas, in the post period, trade openness has a positive and significant effect on output growth. In general, the results from the dynamic estimations prove that the conventional OLS static estimates underestimate the effect of investment on output growth. In addition, the dynamic model allows for a separation of gains from trade between short term and long term. The paper results also provide evidence in support of the idea that, countries with a growing degree of trade openness may experience faster per-capita output growth through gains in productivity associated to capital accumulation, rather than the assumed technological spillover effects from the trading sector. Again, at the regional level in the post financial crisis period both short term and long term gains from trade are relevant to growth. Why more trade does not necessarily imply faster growth at all levels of revealed trade openness growth, remains a conundrum.     

上海自贸区的“光环效应”及问题分析--从自贸区“抢位”现象说起

中国（上海）自由贸易试验区自成立以来一直是人们关注的热点，人们在参与自贸区活动中存在着“抢位”等盲目行为，自贸区“光环效应”明显。不良“光环效应”遮蔽自贸区的内在发展，反映了我国在自贸区发展过程中存在系统性和前瞻性的宏观问题。文章从自贸区的本身、人们心理情感、政策环境和信息传递过程四个方面分析自贸区不良“光环效应”的产生原因，并揭示不良“光环效应”可能带来的弊端，如浪费资源、破坏市场秩序、影响社会稳定、降低政府公信力、增加政策执行难度、遮蔽自贸区本质、不利于长远发展等问题。最后，在健康生态的理念下从三个方面探求破解“光环效应”、回归上海自贸区发展“正道”的有效途径，包括信息传递过程要公开、透明、准确、快速；各活动主体需开阔视野、端正认识、回归理性；自贸区自身建设则要立足国际环境，激发内在动力，以制度创新为突破点，构建对接全球经济发展的市场生态。     

Do economic institutions matter for trade liberalization? Evidence from China’s Open Door Policy

Trade liberalization can promote export by inducing better resource allocation and more advanced technologies. Although the literature emphasizes the mechanism of geographic proximity, this paper identifies an institutional effect. Using infant mortality rate as an instrument that is irrelevant to export and geographic effects, we confirm that the openness due to China’s Open Door Policy promotes firm exports. We further document that the positive relationship between openness and firm exports is mediated by property rights protection and corporate autonomy, either of which reflects institutional quality at the constraint on the government’s strategic behavior. In particular, our estimates are robust to different samples, different estimation methods, and endogeneity bias.     

Cultural distance and international trade in services: A disaggregate view

In this paper, we estimate the effect of “cultural distance” on bilateral trade in services. The measure of cultural distance we use is based on scores that reflect country averages of individuals’ attitudes towards inequality, self-orientation, competition, uncertainty, traditions, and indulgence. Controlling for standard ingredients of gravity equations, we show that an aggregate measure of cultural distance has a significantly negative effect on total bilateral services trade. Once we take a more disaggregate view, we find that the strength of this effect differs across various types of services and various aspects of cultural distance.     

The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: The case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus

Pandemic influenza is a regularly recurring form of infectious disease; this work analyses its economic effects. Like many other infectious diseases influenza pandemics are usually of short, sharp duration. Human coronavirus is a less regularly recurring infectious disease. The human coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has presented with seemingly high transmissibility and led to extraordinary socioeconomic disruption due to severe preventative measures by governments. To understand and compare these events, epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of a pandemic from regional populations to regional economies and then across regional economies. In contrast to past pandemics, COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects given the greater uncertainty surrounding its nature. The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to the risk-modifying behaviour in the form of preventative measures taken in response to the latest novel pandemic virus.     

Simulated economic impacts in applied trade modelling: A comparison of tariff aggregation approaches

This paper assesses the performance of two recently developed tariff aggregators in reducing tariff aggregation bias by analysing Swiss beef market liberalisation scenarios. Specific relevant sources of bias are addressed: substitution effects on import demand, Tariff Rate Quotas and overprotection in tariffs. The aggregators are linked to a global large-scale partial equilibrium model and benchmarked against a standard aggregator. The choice of the aggregation method shows considerable effects on simulated economic impacts, specifically if the dispersion in tariffs or tariff cuts is large. A large bias is revealed in simulated gains from trade liberalisation using the standard aggregator. The impacts on traded quantities are found to be overestimated, while price and welfare effects can be higher or lower by switching to alternative aggregation methods. By reducing aggregation bias and depicting negotiated tariff schedules more directly, the proposed aggregators enhance the contribution of trade modelling to evidence-based policy making.     

Threshold effect of economic openness on bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the non-linear effects of two aspects of economic openness, namely, trade openness and financial openness, on banking system stability. We use a panel of 42 emerging markets from 2000 to 2014 to test whether bank risk-taking behaviour varies with the level of openness. We find that a higher degree of trade openness promotes bank stability linearly. Conversely, the non-linear effect of financial openness on bank risk-taking is evident. When the financial system is not sufficiently open, the impact of financial openness on bank stability is insignificant. However, as the domestic financial market becomes more open, financial openness can help discipline the behaviour of banks, making them more stable. We also find evidence that these effects are transmitted through the market discipline channel. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening the domestic regulatory framework and transparency as the economy becomes more integrated.     

“一带一路”沿线国家贸易开放与劳动收入份额

基于1990~2014年的跨国数据,实证研究贸易开放对"一带一路"沿线国家劳动收入份额的影响。分析发现,"一带一路"沿线国家的劳动收入份额均值下降了5%以上。采用固定效应模型和工具变量法的实证分析表明,整体上贸易开放抑制了"一带一路"沿线国家的劳动收入份额。进一步将"一带一路"沿线国家按照经济发展水平、要素禀赋、制度环境分组研究发现,贸易开放对高经济发展水平国家、资本密集型国家、资源密集型国家、制度环境良好国家的劳动收入份额具有显著负影响,但是对于低经济发展水平国家、劳动密集型国家、制度环境不佳国家的劳动收入份额具有显著正效应。而向中国贸易开放能够提高"一带一路"沿线国家的劳动收入份额,特别是对低经济发展水平国家的积极影响较强。上述实证结果具有稳健性。在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。