BEHAVIORAL PORTFOLIO SELECTION: ASYMPTOTICS AND STABILITY ALONG A SEQUENCE OF MODELS

We consider a sequence of financial markets that converges weakly in a suitable sense and maximize a behavioral preference functional in each market. For expected concave utilities, it is well known that the maximal expected utilities and the corresponding final positions converge to the corresponding quantities in the limit model. We prove similar results for nonconcave utilities and distorted expectations as employed in behavioral finance, and we illustrate by a counterexample that these results require a stronger notion of convergence of the underlying models compared to the concave utility maximization. We use the results to analyze the stability of behavioral portfolio selection problems and to provide numerically tractable methods to solve such problems in complete continuous‐time models.     

A STRUCTURAL RISK‐NEUTRAL MODEL FOR PRICING AND HEDGING POWER DERIVATIVES

We develop a structural risk‐neutral model for energy market modifying along several directions the approach introduced in Aïd et al. In particular, a scarcity function is introduced to allow important deviations of the spot price from the marginal fuel price, producing price spikes. We focus on pricing and hedging electricity derivatives. The hedging instruments are forward contracts on fuels and electricity. The presence of production capacities and electricity demand makes such a market incomplete. We follow a local risk minimization approach to price and hedge energy derivatives. Despite the richness of information included in the spot model, we obtain closed‐form formulae for futures prices and semiexplicit formulae for spread options and European options on electricity forward contracts. An analysis of the electricity price risk premium is provided showing the contribution of demand and capacity to the futures prices. We show that when far from delivery, electricity futures behave like a basket of futures on fuels.     

Regulations for the Eighth International Congress of Actuaries

Abstract

The present paper proposes and investigates a procedure for numerical evaluation of the transition probabilities for a time-inhomogeneous Markov process when the intensities are known (estimated). The procedure is based on Taylor-expansion of the transition probabilities linked with the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations.     

The synchronization club: classification of global economic groups by inequality

We find that, from 1970 to 2006, the GDPs of 181 countries are described by a log-normal with a power law tail before 1992, but by a kinked power law distribution after 1992. In the 15 years from 1992 to 2006, there are two obvious scale-free zones for annual GDPs, ranked from the largest to smallest. If the countries in each scaling region are regarded as a group, the world is divided into two groups, each with a roughly stable number of members. The power exponents of the two groups are different and hence lead to different inequalities. Therefore, the basis for classification is the macro-consistent inequality within each group. The wealth grows in a synchronous nonlinear manner within groups that have a stable wealth distribution and rank structure. If each group is considered as a club, we name it a ‘synchronization club’.     

New development: Gender (responsive) budgeting—a reflection on critical issues and future challenges

Gender budgeting needs to become institutionalized more strongly in our societies and public policies. The article suggests some of the possible challenges to be taken into consideration to make it ‘work’, including availability of technical capacities and data, securing support in the political agenda, involving stakeholders, balancing spontaneity and standardization, and considering wider sources of inequality.     

Wage differences between Austrian men and women: <Emphasis Type="Italic">semper idem?</Emphasis>

In most OECD countries, the wage gap between men and women has narrowed during the past two decades. Developments of the last 20 years, e.g., increased labour market attachment of women or the introduction of equal pay laws, may have reduced the gender wage gap. We investigate the extent, persistence, and socio-economic determinants of the gender wage gap in Austria, for the years 1983 and 1997. Using wage decomposition techniques, we find that the average gender wage gap was almost as high in 1997 as it was in 1983. Not accounting for differences, the gender wage gap dropped from 25.5 to 23.3% of men’s wages. Taking observable differences between men and women into account, we estimate that the mean gender wage gap that cannot be explained, i.e., discrimination against women, dropped from 17 to 14% of men’s wages. A decomposition of the gender wage gap over time indicates that both returns to human capital and less discrimination were responsible for the narrowing of the gender wage gap.

信贷约束、再分配及不平等对增长的影响

当信贷对那些禀赋较少的当事人是完全可获取时,再分配对长期增长无影响.当信贷不可得时,再分配可以促进经济增长.富人与穷人之间的不平等程度越高,越容易刺激穷人掠夺富人的财富,并牺牲了总的投资与增长.恰当的再分配政策设计可以有利于禀赋少者并促进总的产出,并使社会朝着增长与和谐的方向努力.     

收入不平等对经济增长的负面影响机制——近二十年文献综述

近年来,国内外学者运用各种方法探讨了收入不平等与经济增长的关系。大部分研究结论显示,收入差距对经济增长存在间接的负面影响,两者之间存在一个多因素的传导过程,包括人力资本积累机制、政治经济决策机制、社会冲突机制、需求传导机制以及其他传导机制。总的来看,这些研究加深了对于两者关系性质和相互影响的认识,但研究结论的分歧和研究方法的局限性仍然存在,有必要对两者关系进行更深入的研究。     

基于体积分方程法的起伏地形三维电场正演

利用体积分方程实现了起伏地形三维电场的正演模拟。首先推导了起伏地形条件下的积分方程,在求解电并矢格林函数积分这一关键问题时,将其分解为一次电流项、一次电荷项和二次项;随后进行了模型试算,结果表明电场在地形和地下不均匀体处均有异常出现。     

介质涂层金属圆柱体有限元法电磁散射特性的分析

本文以有限元方法(FEM)为基础,结合边界积分方程(BIM)这一开域边界条件的混合有限元算法实现对目标散射特性问题的分析。本文以一个介质涂敷金属圆柱为例应用有限元/边界积分方程法(FEM-BIM)实现计算结果,并与精确结果进行对比,吻合很好。