中国各区域对外贸易的决定因素分析--中国八大区域与东亚三经济体间的贸易

本文将中国划分为8大区域,通过分析这8大区域与韩国、台湾地区、日本之间的贸易趋势,寻找影响中国各区域国际贸易的主要因素。韩国、台湾地区、日本这三个东亚经济体作为中国的主要贸易伙伴,在中国的市场占有率达到40%,在同中国的贸易中存在着区域和商品种类上的差别。即韩国在东北地区、台湾在南部沿海地区、日本则在中国大部分地区显示出较高的市场占有率,并且它们在中国各沿海地区的产品出口种类趋于相同,说明东亚三个经济体在中国各地区的竞争越来越激烈。通过对东亚三个经济体同中国各区域产业内贸易趋势的分析,发现,收入水平高、产业结构相对高级的东部沿海区域表现出相互独立的贸易结构。这种现象可以进一步解释为各区域之间还存在着较独立的产业结构。产业内贸易大部分由垂直产业内贸易构成,即同东亚三个经济体形成了商品质量和价格差别的同一品种之间的贸易。最后,通过对产业内贸易决定因素的计量分析,可以看出中国各区域的人均收入水平、外国直接投资额、工业产品出口比重等是决定垂直产业内贸易的主要因素。     

国有商业银行效率现状分析与改革建议

银行效率问题是中国金融改革的关键问题之一,研究国有商业银行效率不仅有助于政策制订者的决策规划,而且对 银行决策者也极为重要。本文对国有商业银行效率包含的规模经济与X-效率进行深入的研究分析,并从深层次分析了效率 低下的原因,提出进一步改革中国国有商业银行的政策建议。     

我国农村普惠金融的减贫增收效应研究——基于4023户农户微观数据的断点回归

文章利用全国27省份517个村庄的4023户农户微观调研数据，使用模糊断点回归方法，对农村普惠金融的贫困减缓效应和经济增长效应进行了实证检验。结果发现，在东部地区，普惠金融的发展降低了绝对贫困和相对贫困水平，促进了经济增长；在中部地区，普惠金融的发展有利于绝对贫困水平和相对贫困水平的下降，对于经济增长的促进效用不明显；在西部地区，普惠金融的发展有利于绝对贫困水平的下降，但增加了相对贫困并抑制了经济增长。基于此，文章提出在农村普惠金融的推广过程中，应注意其发展战略实施的区域差别化，以实现普惠金融积极效应的最大发挥。     

以县域为中心的乡村振兴：城乡关系演变与县域经济发展

乡村生产要素通过流动实现集聚是提升生产分工规模和生产效率的重要途径，但要素过度流失不利于乡村自身的发展。新中国成立以前，"乡-城"生产要素流动规模较小；新中国成立后改革开放前，在重工业发展战略下乡村生产要素被约束流动；改革开放以来，"乡-城"生产要素单向流动趋于加速；党的十九大开启了乡村振兴新篇章，致力于改变乡村要素单向外流的局面。近代以来，立足于乡村且突破村庄社区规模的分工生产和集聚性生产没有大范围发展起来，乡村对生产要素的吸引力不强。新中国的综合发展成就为发展现代化的乡村集聚经济创造了有利条件，探索在县域层面整合资源和集聚要素是振兴乡村和构建新型城乡关系的重要方向。     

UNDERSTANDING ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY OF CITIES AND EMISSIONS EMBODIED IN TRADE

The attribution of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embedded in interregionally traded products to either production or consumption regions is a key issue to the understanding of the global environmental responsibility of metropolitan areas. In this paper we identify GHG emissions for which metropolitan areas assume responsibility by allocating emissions embodied in import and export products to regions of either consumption or production in the cases of three US metropolitan areas. The case studies show that embodied emissions in both export and import products accounted for 63–73% of total GHG emissions directly and indirectly pertaining to these metropolitan economies. These findings suggest that an accounting method that incorporates emissions embodied in product trade has relevance to the development of local policies that govern actions ranging from redirecting metropolitan development patterns toward low carbon emissions to promoting sustainable consumption behavior, particularly those involving the collaboration of cities.     

货币传导异质性与实体经济流动性配置的“马太效应”

货币政策支持实体经济高质量发展的关键在于疏通货币政策传导机制,引导流动性进入重点领域和薄弱环节,因此货币资金的配置效率至关重要。本文基于交互效应面板分位数回归,测度货币政策对实体企业流动性的异质性效应。研究发现:在样本期内,实体经济流动性配置陷入了资金越充裕的企业越易于获得融资,越易于获得融资的企业资金越充裕的窘境。这种流动性配置的“马太效应”具体表现为,货币政策对尾部企业的支持力度不及头部企业的一半;虚拟经济对尾部企业的“分流效应”高达头部企业的3倍,从而强化了流动性配置的失衡。因此,当前密集出台的一系列普惠政策有助于提升流动性配置效率,进一步完善调控模式的关键在于健全现代化金融体系,增强货币政策的靶向性和针对性。     

An empirical analysis of effects of gasoline price change on transportation behavior in Japan,with consideration of regional differences

This empirically analyzes the effect of gasoline price change on various aspects of surface transport behavior comprehensively, with consideration of regional differences as to whether or not the region includes a major metropolitan agglomeration area (hereafter, “megalopolis”), by means of carefully arranging yearly time-series data from fiscal 1987 to fiscal 2008 in Japan. The aim is to look at common as well as different effects among regions and to draw policy implications relating to fuel price, as well as to fuel tax, towards developing a low-carbon transport system, which are applicable to other countries including emerging countries where a demographic disparity between megalopolis areas and rural areas might be increasing. The methodology includes the multiple regression models complemented by the 1st order auto-regressive models of error terms, where the elasticities of gasoline price and those of income regarding usage of personal automobiles, of public transport and of passenger railways with or without periodic tickets, and fuel consumption on cars, as well as ownership of various types of cars, are estimated for individual gross-regions. In both gross-regions, higher gasoline prices are commonly shown to be related to lower ownership of larger private passenger cars, higher ownership of light cars, lower ownership of the total private passenger cars, lower passenger-km per capita in cars, lower fuel consumption on cars and higher transit ridership. The result suggests general automobile-fuel-price policy implications, the extent of which is differentiated by spatial characteristics, and estimates the adverse effect of the possible abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate on the emissions in both gross-regions. The application of result is also tried in exploring effect of other policy measures such as expressway tolls.     

三大城市跨域合作创新形成机制差异分析

利用三大城市跨域合作专利数据，从知识流动角度分析发现：在知识流入网络中，深圳市是主要流入区；在知识流出网络中，北京市是主要流出区；在知识交流网络中，北京跨域合作创新最多，并且这3种知识交流模式都体现出非“地理邻近性”特征。进一步采用“稀有事件”模型实证回归发现，北京、上海、深圳跨域合作创新的形成机制存在差异。①三大城市跨域合作创新形成都依赖“制度邻近性”，但是,上海市创新网络较为综合，既体现“地理邻近性”也体现“制度邻近性”；②三大城市合作创新形成机制存在差异，其与城市的企业所有制结构密切相关。上海参与合作创新的主体是民营企业，跨域合作创新的市场特征更为明显，合作创新的形成主要依赖非正式“制度邻近性”。深圳市参与合作创新的主体是外资企业，外资企业倾向于通过正式“制度邻近性”的方式将核心技术锁定在企业内部。北京市跨域合作创新的形成以国有企业为主体，主要依赖“隶属关系”和“过往合作经验”，创新网络较为封闭和稳定。     

Taxation of natural resources and economic growth in Russia's regions

We examine the impact of natural resources on economic growth in Russia's regions since the introduction of the mineral tax in 2002. Using novel measures of regional natural resource rents (mineral tax collections), we demonstrate that non-hydrocarbon wealth has had a slightly positive and hydrocarbon wealth has had no to a slightly negative effect on regional growth since 2002, although mineral-rich regions are richer than other regions. The absence of significant growth benefits to resource-endowed regions is at odds with the beneficial impact of natural resources, and particularly hydrocarbons, on the growth of the country as a whole. We discuss the reasons for this outcome and conclude that the central government was successful in taxing away incremental regional resource rents during 2002–2011, while preserving the pre-2002 regional rents.     

Regional unemployment disparities in China

China has larger regional unemployment disparities than any other economy of comparable size. The persistence of the unemployment disparity in China has prevented the aggregate unemployment rate from decreasing even when the country’s GDP was growing at 10 percent per year. Unemployment rates rose and unemployment disparities widened in other transition economies too, but what made China’s disparities wider than those in other transition economies is the existence of a large subsistence sector, where unemployment exists only in a disguised form. This study explains the wide unemployment disparity in China with the geographically uneven distribution of the three sectors: the state sector, which suffers from a steep rise of unemployment during transition; the capitalist sector, which absorbs labor from the subsistence sector and grows rapidly; and the subsistence sector, which supplies its redundant labor to the capitalist sector. The study also presents a case study of Fuxin City, which has experienced an extremely high unemployment rate due to the reform of its main industry. Fuxin’s case is presented as a microcosm of the problems that give rise to unemployment disparities, such as massive layoffs in the state sector, lack of labor mobility in the unemployment-stricken regions, and inadequate development of the capitalist sector.