MULTIDIMENSIONAL DISTANCE‐TO‐COLLAPSE POINT AND SOVEREIGN DEFAULT PREDICTION

By focusing on sovereign defaults, this paper introduces a multidimensional distance‐to‐collapse point based on a two‐step procedure. The first step is nonparametric and provides an early warning system that signals a potential crisis whenever preselected leading indicators exceed specific thresholds. The second is parametric and incorporates the first‐step country default predictors within a probit specification. Such a two‐step procedure generalizes the distance‐to‐default à la Merton within a multidimensional setting, wherein we care about the distance of each indicator from its threshold. Empirical evidence about debt crises of emerging markets over the period 1975–2002 proves that our methodology predicts 80% of the total defaults and non‐defaults in and out of sample. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

教育技术——教育中的现代服务业

教育技术是服务于教学和科研的,又由于和最新的技术和理论紧密联系,本文提出了教育技术是教育中的现代服务业这个概念,并分析了它作为现代服务业对教学和科研的重要性、作用、目前存在的问题以及发展方向。     

The influence of land-use change paradigm on Romania’s agro-food trade competitiveness—An overview

The current transformations of the Romanian agricultural sector have imposed new paradigms in using the land resources. The objective of this study is to assess Romanian agro-food products competitiveness on world market, in terms of land use changing paradigms. The research question is whether the land is cultivated with crops which are competitive on world market. For assessing agro-food competitiveness, Balassa index is calculated. The findings show relative performance for barley, maize, triticale, wheat, poultry meat, oilseeds, and tobacco. But the areas cultivated with barley and wheat decreased in the period under analysis, although these products have highest relative performance of exports. The paper also proposes structural changes of land use needed for encouraging those crops and products which have high revealed comparative advantages on world markets.     

The differential effects of CEO narcissism and hubris on corporate social responsibility

Research Summary: While prior studies have predominantly shown that CEO narcissism and hubris exhibit similar effects on various strategic decisions and outcomes, this study aims to explore the mechanisms underlying how narcissistic versus hubristic CEOs affect their firms differently. Specifically, we investigate how peer influence moderates the CEO narcissism/hubris—corporate social responsibility (CSR). With a sample of S&P 1500 firms for 2003–2010, we find that the positive relationship between CEO narcissism and CSR is strengthened (weakened) when board‐interlocked peer firms invest less (more) intensively in CSR than a CEO's own firm; the negative relationship between CEO hubris and CSR is strengthened when peer firms are engaged in less CSR than a CEO's own firm. Managerial Summary: Some CEOs are more narcissistic while others may be more hubristic, but these two groups of CEOs hold different attitudes toward the extent to which their firms should engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR). Our findings with a large sample of U.S. publically listed firms suggest that narcissistic CEOs care more about CSR, but hubristic CEOs care less. Interestingly, when narcissistic CEOs observe their peer firms engaging in more or less CSR than their own firms, they tend to respond in an opposite manner; in contrast, hubristic CEOs will only engage in even less CSR when their peers also do not emphasize CSR. Our findings point to a fundamental difference between CEO narcissism and hubris in terms of how they affect firms' CSR decisions based on their social comparison with peer firms.     

From the Nation-State to a World Society: An Institutional Reading of Globalization

This article highlights the inadequacy of classical and neoclassical theories for understanding the set of changes experienced by economic systems in their process of development. The institutional dimension concerning the issue of well-defined rules (through the introduction of economic policies) and involving all stakeholders in the regulatory process (starting from the firm), seems to better interpret micro- and macro-economic aspects of the evolving capitalist model. This means questioning the complicated economic governance and society in the transition from the nation-state to a world society (or world state).     

Past price ‘memory’ in the housing market: testing the performance of different spatio-temporal specifications

Recent methodological developments provide a way to incorporate the temporal dimension when accounting for spatial effects in hedonic pricing. Weight matrices should decompose the spatial effects into two distinct components: bidirectional contemporaneous spatial connections; and unidirectional spatio-temporal effects from past transactions. Our iterative estimation approach explicitly analyses the role of time in price determination. The results show that both spatio-temporal components should be included in model specification; past transaction information stops contributing to price determination after eight months; and limited temporal friction is exhibited within this period. These findings highlight the decidedly non-linear temporal patterns of such information effects.     

Enterprise systems’ life cycle in pursuit of resilient smart factory for emerging aircraft industry: a synthesis of Critical Success Factors’(CSFs), theory,knowledge gaps,and implications

The research aims to investigate business value critical success factors (CSFs) of enterprise systems (ES) through their life cycle in pursuit of resilient smart factory for emerging aircraft industry. This article provides an extensive literature analysis of past 22 years based on conscientious criteria of authors: (i) who have published strategic content relevant to CSFs, (ii) received more than 300 citations and (iii) concurrently published two or more papers relevant to ES CSFs. The most cited strategic CSFs were termed as classical CSFs. The 22 CSFs were identified, validated and synthesised for better understanding of success across life cycle by aircraft industry experts. The top 10 empirically verified CSFs have numerous differences with past generic classical CSFs. This article canvases real insights of two distinct views: process and variance approaches of the ES CSFs. The process approach, which is a neglected research area, facilitates the researchers for identification of ES life cycle process coupled with a view of resource deployment when it is needed the most. While the variance approach facilitates practitioners and researchers in finding out which resource (CSF) is relatively more important. The significant findings for ES life cycle can help the practitioners and researchers to make rational decisions throughout the ES life cycle.     

The contribution of social tourism to sustainable tourism: a case study of seasonally adjusted programmes in Spain

Recent policy from the European Union has attempted to justify social tourism initiatives on the basis that they lead to a more sustainable tourism industry. However, the majority of latest research in the field has been focused on the benefits for participants, with the addition of some evidence on the economic impacts of such programmes on destinations, which have pointed towards sustainability outcomes including: a longer tourism season, more even spread of demand, and longer periods of employment for tourism workers. Yet there is a lack of direct evidence linking such programme to these outcomes. This paper aimed to explore this important disconnect between policy assumptions and evidence-based outcomes through an analysis of the deseasonalising effects of the Spanish social tourism programme for older people. The research found that this programme does have an effect on the seasonal nature of employment and economic activity in most regions studied, but that the huge volume of demand from international tourists in the high seasons masks the quantitative effects in the regions with the highest seasonal concentration of international tourists. Recommendations for policy and practice in sustainable tourism are made that are transferable to many countries and regions that adopt social tourism programmes.     

Prioritizing destination attributes for optimal resource allocation: a study of Chinese tourists visiting Britain

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the importance, performance, and the interrelationships of key destination attributes for marketing managers to prioritize resource allocation. A three-dimensional analysis of importance–performance–impact-analysis (IPIA) factors, based upon a survey sample of 275 Chinese tourists to Britain and an expert panel interview with 10 destination marketing managers is presented. Data analysis was based upon a mix of multi-criteria decision-making methodologies, the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method and the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method. The framework can be applied to prioritize resources allocation to improve customer satisfaction in other contexts, such as a sector or a specific business.