Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.     

企业管理者工作压力源的结构与属性——以浙江省企业为实证

本文以浙江省企业管理人员为样本进行问卷调查，综合运用探索性和验证性因素分析方法，构建了我国企业管理人员工作压力源的七因素模型，并将这些因素界定为内源压力和外源压力两类。通过与管理者绩效建立关联，进一步区分了各种压力源因素的属性。     

商业模式创新途径探讨

如今商业环境变化迅速,持续地获得利润已经成为企业关注的焦点,商业模式给企业提供了参考的思维方法与实践框架。商业模式的组成要素包括:为谁,做什么,如何做,如何盈利四部分。其创新的途径主要有重新定义顾客,提供特别的产品/服务,改变提供产品/服务的路径,改变收入模式,改变对顾客的支持体系和发展独特的价值网络。企业有必要适时创新自身的商业模式,保证持续地盈利,获得竞争优势。     

民营经济发展中的深层阻滞因素辨析

民营经济的快速发展已经像其成为中国经济增长的重要引擎。但从运行层面看,民营经济仍然面对各种体制与非体制、人为和非人为的制约因素。目前民营企业普遍反映影响其可能持续发展的主要因素集中在政府政策、融资及资金、人才、创新与技术进步以及管理问题等方面。     

An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP

Rennison (Comparing alternative output gap estimations: a Monte Carlo approach, 2003) has provided simulation-based evidence showing that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregression models is optimal for estimating potential output. We use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and trend labour productivity. This decomposition is useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential output. It reveals, for example, that the vigorous growth rate of U.S. potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in trend productivity growth.     

旅游集散中心对旅游潜在需求的激活机制研究——基于创新的视角

在简要介绍旅游集散中心及旅游潜在需求基础上,基于创新的视角,系统分析了旅游集散中心对旅游潜在需求的激活机制,指出旅游集散中心对潜在需求的影响与激活的机制是通过多种机制,借助于创新性旅游服务以及文化、理念、时尚等作用于潜在旅游消费需求的不同层面,从而激活旅游潜在需求。     

我国家族企业接班人模式的比较和分析

只有选择准、培养好家族企业接班人,才能为家族企业的长远发展奠定良好基础.家族企业的接班模式有:"子承父业"接班模式,"内部培养"接班模式,"空降高层"接班模式."子承父业"接班模式是家族企业代代相传的常见方式.作者通过对三种模式的比较和分析,目的是提炼不同接班模式存在的问题,并有针对性地加以解决.     

Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

This paper uses a tractable macroeconomic model with idiosyncratic human capital risk and incomplete markets to analyze the growth and welfare effects of business cycles. The analysis is based on the assumption that the elimination of business cycles eliminates the variation in idiosyncratic risk. The paper shows that a reduction in the variation in idiosyncratic risk decreases the ratio of physical to human capital and increases the total investment return and welfare. If the degree of risk aversion is less than or equal to one, then economic growth is enhanced. This paper also provides a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of business cycles based on a calibrated version of the model. Even for relatively small degrees of risk aversion (around one) the model implies that the elimination of business cycles has substantial effects on investment in physical and human capital, economic growth, and welfare.     

基于EAI构建企业外部服务平台

企业信息化过程逐步从优化内部管理转向提高外部服务，许多企业开始实施CRM和SCM，并进而实现B2B电子商务。EAI的目标是实现企业不同系统之间的集成，通过EAI的实施，可以使企业服务系统获得以ERP为代表的企业后台系统的支撑。     

中小制造企业协同物流模式及其实现途径

阐述了协同物流的概念与意义,从其基本模式应用比较优势分析入手,提出一体化物流是中小制造企业构筑协同物流的切入点,同时对协同物流实现的具体途径及亟待注意和急需解决的问题也进行了探讨。