日本政府推进日元国际化制约因素分析

日本政府在20世纪之末再次明确提出推进日元国际化。日元国际化就是指日元在国际上充当计价货币,结算货币,流通货币和储备资产及外汇交易中所占的市场份额上升,把日元由低度化的国际货币提升为高度化的国际货币。而从日本目前的基本经济状况,金融业不良债权,金融市场现状,经济增长模式,汇率变动,日本同东亚各国政治经济关系,以及现行国际经济金融,政治秩序演变等方面分析,制约日元国际化的不利因素还很多,日本政府推动日元国际化的进程将是困难重重。     

Coherent Measures of Risk

In this paper we study both market risks and nonmarket risks, without complete markets assumption, and discuss methods of measurement of these risks. We present and justify a set of four desirable properties for measures of risk, and call the measures satisfying these properties "coherent." We examine the measures of risk provided and the related actions required by SPAN, by the SEC/NASD rules, and by quantile-based methods. We demonstrate the universality of scenario-based methods for providing coherent measures. We offer suggestions concerning the SEC method. We also suggest a method to repair the failure of subadditivity of quantile-based methods.     

汇率制度选择与金融稳定关系研究综述

本文从理论和实证层面对汇率制度选择与金融稳定的研究进程进行了梳理和综述,指出何种汇率制度安排更有助于金融稳定,迄今的研究尚未取得一致的共识。从金融稳定的视角研究汇率制度的选择,其实质就是由谁作为汇率风险的承担主体,更有助于维护金融稳定。本文基于金融稳定的考虑,从汇率风险的承担主体角度,提出了在中国利率市场化改革进程中,如何选择与利率管理体制变迁相协调的汇率制度安排的研究取向。     

人民币国际化中的亚洲货币合作

我国人民币国际化处于区域化的发展阶段,这一阶段的发展目标是成为亚洲区域的主导货币,因而加强亚洲货币合作十分重要。当前我国在诸多方面参与了亚洲货币合作,但合作还存在不深入、形式松散、缺乏约束力和持续性等问题,需要进一步强化亚洲货币合作以推动人民币国际化进程。     

亚洲货币合作:最新进展、问题和前景

亚洲货币合作是在东南亚金融危机之后才开始起步的,“清迈协议”是迄今为止所达成的最重要的制度性成果。亚洲货币合作所面临的主要问题是:各国之间在经济结构和发展水平上差异显著、在政治、文化和历史方面存在分歧和冲突;强调非正式性和达成共识的“亚洲传统”;区域内的大国没有承担起与自己实力相匹配的责任。尽管如此,亚洲货币合作的前景是光明的,因为亚洲各国具有货币合作的内在动力,而且相应的问题可以通过由易到难的分阶段合作进行克服。亚元的产生是亚洲货币合作的终极目标,而人民币和日元很可能共同承担起核心货币的责任。     

Emerging floaters: Pass-throughs and (some) new commodity currencies

In spite of early skepticism on the merits of floating exchange rate regimes in emerging markets, 8 of the 25 largest countries in this group have now had a floating exchange rate regime for more than a decade. Using parsimonious VAR specifications covering the period of floating exchange rates, this study computes the dynamics of exchange rate pass-throughs to consumer price indices. We find that pass-throughs have typically been moderate even though emerging floaters have seen considerable nominal and real exchange rate volatilities. Previous studies that set out to estimate exchange rate pass-throughs ignored changes in policy regimes, making them vulnerable to the Lucas critique. We find that, within the group of emerging floaters, estimated pass-throughs are higher for countries with greater nominal exchange rate volatilities and that trade more homogeneous goods. These findings are consistent with the pass-through model of Floden and Wilander (2006) and earlier findings by Campa and Goldberg (2005), respectively. Furthermore, we find that the Indonesian Rupiah, the Thai Baht and possibly the Mexican Peso are commodity currencies, in the sense that their real exchange rates are cointegrated with international commodity prices.     

基于资本流动逆转的货币危机理论——兼论我国应对危机冲击的策略选择

货币危机理论是当前国际经济学研究热点之一,在已有的三大危机理论中均有关于货币危机与资本流动的论述,但均是通过已构建的模型寻找货币危机和资本流动逆转的原因,而非阐述资本流动逆转与货币危机的内在关系,对当前因资本流动逆转所引发的货币危机缺乏解释力。本文拟从资本流动的宏观视角出发,运用数理模型推导汇率与资本流动内在关系表达式,利用资本流动模型构建资本流动逆转货币危机理论分析框架,探讨资本流动逆转货币危机对我国的影响和冲击,并提出应对之策。     

论全球储备货币多元化格局与中国外汇储备之出路

如今出现金融危机,美元的长期滥发以至全球流动性泛滥难辞其咎。可以预见,美元霸权在未来必将终结,世界货币体系需要重建,最终形成储备货币多元化格局。中国应投资实体产业,以寻求供需平衡之道。     

The Euro and the Changing Face of European Banking: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions

During the last fifteen years, the European banking industry has experienced considerable consolidation through mergers and acquisitions against the background of the introduction of the single currency and reductions in cross‐border barriers. This paper investigates whether these changes impacted on announcement period gains of the banks acquiring targets by examining the pre‐euro, run‐up to the euro and post euro eras. Evidence suggests bidders' gains have fallen with the development of economic and monetary union. It also reveals significant differences in the gains from acquisitions within and outside the eurozone. These results are consistent with increased competition among bidders and increased integration of the market in the eurozone area in the post‐euro era. However, differing results relating to focused and diversifying bids suggest that the level of market integration is sector dependent.