Dividend Stability, Dividend Yield and Stock Returns: UK Evidence

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.     

Applications of Eigenfunction Expansions in Continuous-Time Finance

We provide exact solutions for two closely related valuation problems in continuous-time finance. The first problem is to value generalized European-style options on stocks that pay dividends at a constant dollar rate. The second problem is to find the yield curve associated with the economy of R. C. Merton's "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty." In Merton's economic growth model, the interest rate process has a volatility linear in the rate level and a linear/quadratic drift. Both problems are solved by an eigenfunction expansion technique. The main technical difficulty is handling the problem of payoff functions that are not square-integrable with respect to the natural weight function of the models.     

模糊决策在制造型企业产量定额决策中的应用

企业的经营管理系统是一个复杂的系统，影响因素众多、层次多、信息不足或不确知，因此要搞好一个企业的关键是要有现代化的科学管理方法。本文应用模糊数学中的一些方法对制造型企业的产量作出定额决策，使得企业经营管理更加科学化、模型化和定量化。     

Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the “Fed Model”

The so-called Fed model postulates that the dividend or earnings yield on stocks should equal the yield on nominal Treasury bonds, or at least that the two should be highly correlated. In US data there is indeed a strikingly high time series correlation between the yield on nominal bonds and the dividend yield on equities. This positive correlation is often attributed to the fact that both bond and equity yields comove strongly and positively with expected inflation. Contrary to some of the extant literature, we show that this effect is consistent with modern asset pricing theory incorporating uncertainty about real growth prospects and habit-based risk aversion. In the US, high expected inflation has tended to coincide with periods of heightened uncertainty about real economic growth and unusually high risk aversion, both of which rationally raise equity yields.     

商业银行理财产品收益的实证研究

商业商业银行理财产品收益可分为预期收益率、实际收益率。实现超额收益产品多投资于债券和货币市场,未实现预期收益产品多挂钩利率、汇率、商品期货;非保本产品、短期理财产品是理财产品发行主力;外币产品境遇不乐观。商业银行能够较准确地预测固定存款利率、理财期限、发行银行信用、是否保本、是否外币投资对理财产品收益率的影响:固定存款利率、理财期限与预期收益率、实际收益率均正相关;低发行银行信用的预期收益率、实际收益率均高于高发行银行信用;不保本的预期收益率、实际收益率均高于保本产品;外汇投资的预期收益率、实际收益率均低于人民币投资;但不能准确预测投资标的、收益是否固定、银行能否提前终止对理财产品收益率的影响。     

直馏柴油碱洗乳化的原因及对策

直馏柴油的乳化问题比较普遍,这是由于碱洗过程具备油品乳化的三大条件.详细分析了直馏柴油碱洗乳化的影响因素.介绍了国内炼油企业柴油碱洗抗乳化的适用技术和一些新技术,并对直馏柴油抗乳化提出了一些建议.如提高碱液注入温度、考虑原油带有泥沙、杂质或大量乳化剂、柴油干点过高时对柴油碱洗乳化的影响以及根据乳化液的类型选用合适的破乳剂等.     

试论《沧浪之水》对中国传统“权力”文化的悲剧性揭示

《沧浪之水》深刻揭示了中国传统"权力"文化对"人性"的扭曲与消解。池大为面对的,不仅仅是"权力拥有者"与"权力消费者"层面,更重要的是需要面对家庭、亲友及整个社会对权力的崇拜心态。当他身处的整个社会都以"权力"作为思维的出发点,来衡量池大为的所谓的健全人格和精神操守时,池大为所有操守的意义都被彻底化解,他与周围群体之间也完全失去了"精神对话"的可能。池大为要融进这个群体,惟有选择屈服。池大为不是屈服于权力,而是屈服于"权力"思维体系即"权力文化"。这是池大为的悲剧,但更是中国传统"权力"文化的悲剧。小说的深刻意义就在于揭示了这种文化悲剧。     

薄煤层工作面高产高效分析

介绍了唐山矿业分公司薄煤层高产高效工作面须具备的条件,详细说明了工作面长度、工作面支护形式、运输系统能力及煤仓容量等的合理确定,以及实现工作面高产高效的条件。     

对排球退让技术的研究与探索

目前,各种排球教科书对排球的常规技术的要领运用都有详细的阐述,但对退让技术却缺少重视,因此本文以排球五大技术的退让技术为研究对象,对其概念、特点、运用及培养途径加以研究和探索,并以此抛砖引玉,为适宜地发展排球退让技术提供参考。     

Integrated Management of Land Use Systems under Systemic Risks and Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model

Interdependencies among land use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relationships. Disruption of this network may catalyse systemic risks affecting food, energy, water and environmental security (FEWES) worldwide. We describe the conceptual development, expansion and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analysed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of scenario‐dependent outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust outcomes that leave the systems better‐off, independently of which scenario applies. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimisation model that is critical for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex‐ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex‐post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. As an example, the model is applied to the question of optimal storage facilities, as buffers for production shortfalls, to meet regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relationship with Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value‐at‐Risk (CVaR) risk measures. A Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to illustrate the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model approach.