A random effects ordered probit model for rating migrations

Employing a random effects ordered probit model, this paper examines the sources of heterogeneity in sovereign credit ratings in emerging economies. The analysis uses data from six rating agencies for 90 countries. The model highlights the importance of considering the cross-section error, which captures country-specific heterogeneity, in modelling rating upgrades. Watchlist status is a powerful tool in predicting future rating upgrades/downgrades, and dominates rating momentum in some cases. Rating duration and existing rating are important determinants of rating migrations. Evidence of inter-agency differences and dissimilar behaviour of upgrades and downgrades is presented.     

Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings

This paper analyses lead–lag relationships in sovereign ratings across five agencies, and finds evidence of interdependence in rating actions. Upgrade (downgrade) probabilities are much higher, and downgrade (upgrade) probabilities are much lower for a sovereign issuer with a recent upgrade (downgrade) by another agency. S&P tends to demonstrate the least dependence on other agencies, and Moody’s tends to be the first mover in upgrades. Rating actions by Japanese agencies tend to lag those of the larger agencies, although there is some evidence that they lead Moody’s downgrades.     

The role of private information in return volatility,bid–ask spreads and price levels in the foreign exchange market

Trading volume and order flow have both been closely associated with informed trader activity in the market microstructure literature. Using theory that explains regular intraday patterns in trading data, we transform these two variables into proxies for private information and examine their relationships with bid–ask spreads and return volatility. We use a unique and unusually rich high-frequency intraday dataset from the world's largest financial market, namely, the electronic inter-dealer spot foreign exchange market. Our analysis takes account of institutional features peculiar to this order-driven market. Our empirical results strongly affirm our theoretical understanding of how these markets work. They also reveal how the structure of the inter-dealer spot FX market affects exchange rate volatility. Finally, we also explore how private information contributes to the evolution of prices.     

Submarket Dynamics of Time to Sale

We argue that the rush to apply multiple regression estimation to time on the market (TOM) durations may have led to important details and idiosyncrasies in local housing market dynamics being overlooked. What is needed is a more careful examination of the fundamental properties of time to sale data. The approach promoted and presented here, therefore, is to provide an examination of housing sale dynamics using a step-by-step approach. We present three hypotheses about TOM: (i) there is nonmonotonic duration dependence in the hazard of sale, (ii) the hazard curve will vary both over time and across intra-urban areas providing evidence of the existence of submarkets and (iii) institutional idiosyncrasies can have a profound effect on the shape and position of the hazard curve. We apply life tables, kernel-smoothed hazard functions and likelihood ratio tests for homogeneity to a large Scottish data set to investigate these hypotheses. Our findings have important implications for TOM analysis.     

Decreased price clustering in FTSE100 futures contracts following a transfer from floor to electronic trading

The issues of price clustering and electronic trading have triggered important recent debates, and generated interest from regulators due to their potential implications for market quality, stability, and fairness. This paper brings together these issues by examining whether price‐clustering behavior differs following a transfer of futures contracts from open outcry trading to an electronic system. The results are unique in demonstrating a structural change in price clustering following the move to automated trading, with the level of price clustering dropping from around 98.5% of prices at even ticks under floor trading to approximately 75% under electronic trading. Such a change in pricing behavior amounts to a reduction in the effective tick size, and is an important factor in reducing observed bid‐ask spreads. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:647–659, 2003     

Theory and Estimation of the Mortgage Payment Protection Insurance Decision

This paper examines the decision to take out mortgage payment protection insurance (MPPI) in the UK. The paper explains how MPPI has increased in importance over the last decade due to the government stating that Income Support for Mortgage Interest (ISMI) has crowded–out MPPI. A theoretical model of the mortgage protection insurance decision is developed which takes account of the welfare system. The model is estimated using logit analysis on 1995 Glasgow and Bristol data. Elasticities of the probability of take–up with respect to a variety of arguments are calculated, including the level of ISMI. The estimated elasticity with respect to ISMI is found to be very low, which suggests that the crowding–out motivation for the restructuring of Income Support for Mortgage Interest in October 1995 had little support in the data available at the time of the policy decision, and explains the continued low take–up rates since the 1995 restructuring.     

Can position limits restrain ‘rogue’ trading?

This paper studies the imposition of position limits on commodity futures from the perspective of curbing excessive speculation and thus manipulation. We present a simple general equilibrium model in a static rational expectations framework and agent heterogeneity to illustrate that excessive speculation serves to enrich other agents at the expense of the speculator. Position limits, on the contrary, are not only superfluous, but also counter-productive, as they exacerbate market power and lead to a deterioration in efficiency. Position limits not only reduce social welfare but also cannot restrain market manipulation.     

The Monetary Policy Implications of Behavioral Asset Bubbles

I introduce behavioral asset pricing rules into a wider dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Asset price bubbles emerged endogenously within the model. I find that in this model monetary policy rules that target the mispricing of the asset have a destabilizing effect; however, a monetary policy rule that targets deviations in the price of the asset from its trend can be welfare enhancing. Such a rule would also have the benefit of being straightforward to implement.     

Foreign exchange market reactions to sovereign credit news

We analyse the reaction of the foreign exchange spot market to sovereign credit signals by Fitch, Moody’s and S&P during 1994–2010. We find that positive and negative credit news affects both the own-country exchange rate and other countries’ exchange rates. We provide evidence on unequal responses to the three agencies’ signals. Fitch signals induce the most timely market responses, and the market also reacts strongly to S&P negative outlook signals. Credit outlook and watch actions and multiple notch rating changes have more impact than one-notch rating changes. Considerable differences in the market reactions to sovereign credit events are highlighted in emerging versus developed economies, and in various geographical regions.     

Structural changes,bid–ask spread composition and tick size in inter-bank futures trading

This paper studies a period containing three major structural changes, which constitute a natural experiment in the NYSE.Euronext-LIFFE European short-term interest rate (STIR) futures market. These changes comprise (1) a 50% reduction in minimum tick size for the most heavily traded contract, (2) European Monetary Union and (3) the transition from open outcry to electronic trading. We analyse a number of microstructure features of the four largest European interest rate futures contracts throughout this period. In particular, we focus on bid–ask spread composition using a recent model which is appropriate for this market structure. Our analysis identifies the tick size as the largest bid–ask spread component in almost every instance, which suggests that participants in this STIR future market might benefit from a reduction in minimum tick sizes.