论传统成本理论的期望差距及其理论态势

通过对传统成本理论及其期望差距的界定和回顾，深入评析了传统成本理论期望差距的历史必然性．及其在现代经济环境中的演进态势，提出了消除成本理论期望差距，实现成本系统优化是现代成本理论发展必由之路的基本结论。     

关于后验矩的近似计算

文章介绍了数理统计中实数或向量参数的正函数的后验平均、方差和预测密度的近似计算。     

Computing the covariance of two Brownian area integrals

We compute the expected product of two correlated Brownian area integrals, a problem that arises in the analysis of a popular sorting algorithm. Along the way we find three different formulas for the expectation of the product of the absolute values of two standard normal random variables with correlation θ . These two formulas are found: (a) via conditioning and the non-central chi-square distribution; (b) via Mehler's formula; (c) by representing the correlated normal random variables in terms of independent normal's and integration using polar coordinates.     

中国利率期限结构的非线性动态调整:基于MS-VECM模型的研究途径

基于MS-VECM模型对预期理论调整作用下的中国利率期限结构非线性动态过程进行的实证研究,结果表明:预期理论在中国利率期限结构中是成立的;中国利率期限结构具有两区制的非线性动态特征,可以按预期理论的调整强度将两种区制分别描述为"强调整区制"与"弱调整区制";不同期限利率的平均变动幅度和平均风险溢价水平会随区制状态变化而发生变化,具有区制相依性,区制间的转移具有非对称性;利率期限结构与物价压力的非线性区制划分具有相似性,物价波动是利率期限结构非线性动态变化的重要原因。     

基于SEM的长租公寓租客持续租赁意愿影响因素研究

为解决住房问题国家出台了一系列政策来发展住房租赁市场,长租公寓由此应运而生。然而在其快速发展的过程中暴露很多问题,使租客持续租赁意愿逐渐降低。以期望确认理论和计划行为理论为研究基础,构建长租公寓租客持续租赁意愿理论模型,探讨其影响因素及其作用机制。研究发现：知觉行为控制对租客持续租赁意愿的正向影响作用最强,其余依次为租客满意度、主观规范;租客满意度受到租客态度与期望确认程度的正向影响,其中租客态度影响作用最强;租客期望对期望确认程度产生负向影响,感知质量对期望确认程度产生正向影响。根据研究结果提出建议,增强租客持续租赁意愿。     

房地产价格与通货膨胀预期

文章通过构建房地产均衡市场模型,在风险中性的假设前提下,利用无套利均衡定价原理,发展了从房地产价格波动中分离出市场通货膨胀预期的新方法.在此基础上,通过对中国房地产市场的实证研究发现,房地产预期收益率与通货膨胀预期之间确实存在稳定的函数关系.最后,文章提出将房地产价格纳入到居住类消费价格指数中去以减少货币政策认识时滞的政策建议.     

从索罗斯的反射理论看房地产泡沫的形成机制

文章从房地产市场的供给特点出发 ,用索罗斯的反射理论对房地产泡沫的形成机制做出了新的解释     

Tourists’ hotel event experience and satisfaction: an integrative approach

ABSTRACT

Tourists’ hotel event experiences have received little attention in tourism research. By proposing an integrated model of expectation–confirmation theory (ECT) and the experience economy concept, this research explores the relationship between tourists’ event experience and their satisfaction regarding the hotel event setting. The hypothesized model was empirically validated using a sample of 663 tourists who experienced a holiday event at a resort hotel. Results confirmed that the integration of the experience economy and ECT provided a better understanding of tourists’ post-satisfaction in a pleasure-driven setting. This affective–cognitive approach advances the knowledge of tourists’ experiences and satisfaction at hotel events.     

Will you miss me if I am leaving? Unexpected market withdrawal of Norwegian Joy and customer satisfaction

The first “Made in Germany, Designed for Chinese” luxury cruise, Norwegian Joy, announced an unexpected Chinese-market-withdrawal decision on July 14th, 2018, less than a year after her maiden voyage from Shanghai. How does customer satisfaction change as a response to a cruise's market-withdrawal decision? By resorting to the confirmation of expectation theory, our paper highlights satisfaction as being a function of the baseline effect of expectations plus perceived disconfirmation of expectations. We propose that customer satisfaction will rise because the withdrawal decision implies strategic mistake of the cruise and therefore lowers customer expectation. Drawing on customers' comments on the largest travel agency website in China, we conducted sentiment analysis and used ‘difference in difference’ statistical approach to test our hypothesis. Results show that customer satisfaction increased after Norwegian Joy's withdrawal announcement.     

国内员工援助计划相关研究述评

近年来,随着员工援助计划逐步引入我国,在我国发展过程中遇到了一些困难。文章首先介绍了员工援助计划的起源和发展,在文献研究的基础上介绍了当前国内对EAP的研究现状,并指出了几点研究方向,以促进EAP的本土化研究。