How to improve a technology evaluation model: A data-driven approach

Academic research suggests a number of technology evaluation models. To ensure effective use, models need to be improved in accordance with changing internal and external environments. However, a majority of previous studies focus on model development, while a few emphasize their implementation or improvement. To fill this research gap, this study suggests a systematic approach to examining the validity of technology evaluation models and improving them. We consider three propositions as criteria for improvement: 1) the coherence of the evaluation results with the evaluation purpose, 2) the appropriateness of the evaluation methods, and 3) the concreteness of the evaluation model. Rather than using expert opinions, this study takes a data-driven approach, wherein we analyze actual evaluation results and determine whether the model produces the intended results. A case study of 291 technology evaluation results, all made by the South Korean government in support of technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, is conducted to verify the suggested approach's applicability. This is one of the few studies to address issues regarding improvements to a technology evaluation model. Its approach can help to develop and continuously improve a valid technology evaluation model, thus leading to more effective practice.     

金融周期、通货膨胀与货币政策

本文在传统新凯恩斯三方程模型的基础上引入金融周期方程，尝试在一个统一的模型框架下探讨金融周期、通货膨胀与货币政策的内生时变动态关系。研究发现，金融危机时期和非危机时期金融周期与通货膨胀间的相互时变联动存在显著差异，金融周期波动对通货膨胀变动具有较好的预测能力，且基本不受危机影响；货币增速剪刀差可能通过市场流动性对货币政策调控金融周期与通货膨胀的力度起到抵消或放大作用，且具有顺周期特征，因此，货币政策当局可考虑引入逆周期调节的宏观审慎政策对金融周期、通货膨胀以及货币增速剪刀差的顺周期局限进行调控。     

新旧动能转换的理论探索与实践研判

新旧动能转换是实现创新驱动、推动经济由高速度增长向高质量发展的重大战略举措。从世界范围看，新旧动能转换不仅是世界经济演进的客观规律，也是新技术革命持续发展的必然要求。从国内发展看，新旧动能转换是中国迈向全球价值链中高端、进入经济发展新时代的根本出路。本文通过考察新旧动能转换的内涵和模式，进而从技术效率和技术进步二维视角分析新旧动能转换的动态演进。新旧动能转换包含要素、企业、产业和社会四个层面的着力点。新旧动能转换存在从政府主导走向政府引导、从经济领域走向社会领域、从重点示范走向全面推进、从要素驱动走向创新驱动、从渐进式革新走向颠覆性创新等多条发展路径。     

基于改进SCOR的外向型企业供应链风险评价及应用

为了更系统地对外向型企业供应链风险进行识别,改进供应链运作参考模型,将模型目的由优化供应链流程以提高供应链绩效转变为识别供应链流程运作中潜在的风险因素。在改进模型的基础上,构建外向型企业供应链风险评价指标体系,采用信息熵确定权重的物元可拓分析法评价已识别风险的等级情况,并以案例的形式展开具体讨论。结果显示:案例企业的整体供应链风险是处于中等风险,在22种风险因素中有6种属于较高风险等级。针对评价结果,提出做好前期调研工作、强化对风险源的监控管理、完善交易契约的内容设计以及构建供应链突发风险应急管理机制等措施建议。     

钢贸企业经营模式创新和流动资金管理问题探讨

实施经营模式创新,已成为当前钢贸企业走出困境的必由之路。应收款、预付款和库存三个方面是当前钢贸企业日常经营风险的重点之所在。本文对创新钢贸企业经营模式和改进流动资金(应收款、预付款和库存)管理进行探讨。     

基于风险中性路径概率的三叉树期权定价模型

树方法是给经典期权进行定价的非常实用的数值方法,目前最流行的是二叉树模型。三叉树定价模型作为二叉树的一个扩展,其同样是在风险中性概率的基础上给经典期权进行定价,并且可以通过MATLAB实现。相比于二叉树而言,三叉树模型的定价结果具有更好的收敛性。除此之外,用三叉树模型对影响期权价格的一些因素进行敏感性分析,可以验证该模型的合理性。     

Investigating pharmaceutical logistics service quality with refined Kano's model

This study applies the refined Kano model and importance-satisfaction model to investigate medical institutions' satisfaction with and perceptions of importance of domestic pharmaceutical logistics services. Survey data involving 104 respondents from medical institutions are analyzed with importance-satisfaction and the refined Kano model. The results demonstrate that the refined Kano model will generate different classification of quality attributes for the pharmaceutical logistics industry, and medical institutions with different characteristics really have varying responses to quality attributes of pharmaceutical logistics services. The present research contributes to the literature by demonstrating that provision of high-value-added and crucial quality attributes by service providers can give them an edge in the market. In addition, when service providers understand their customers’ attitudes toward innovative service, it can enable them to strengthen their tactics in a competitive market.     

The cost of diabetes and obesity in Australia

Aims: To assess and compare the direct healthcare and non-healthcare costs and government subsidies by body weight and diabetes status.

Methods: The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study collected health service utilization and health-related expenditure data at the 2011–2012 follow-up surveys. Costing data were available for 4,409 participants. Unit costs for 2016–2017 were used where available or were otherwise inflated to 2016–2017 dollars. Age- and sex-adjusted costs per person were estimated using generalized linear models.

Results: The annual total direct cost ranged from $1,998 per person with normal weight to $2,501 per person with obesity in participants without diabetes. For those with diabetes, total direct costs were $2,353 per person with normal weight, $3,263 per person with overweight, and $3,131 per person with obesity. Additional expenditure as government subsidies ranged from $5,649 per person with normal weight and no diabetes to $8,085 per person with overweight and diabetes. In general, direct costs and government subsidies were higher for overweight and obesity compared to normal weight, regardless of diabetes status, but were more noticeable in the diabetes sub-group. The annual total excess cost compared with normal weight people without diabetes was 26% for obesity alone and 46% for those with obesity and diabetes.

Limitations: Participants included in this study represented a healthier cohort than the Australian population. The relatively small sample of people with both obesity and diabetes prevented a more detailed analysis by obesity class.

Conclusion: Overweight and obesity are associated with increased costs, which are further increased in individuals who also have diabetes. Interventions to prevent overweight and obesity or reduce weight in people who are overweight or obese, and prevent diabetes, should reduce the financial burden.     

基于逆向工程的玩具汽车内饰部件模具设计与研究

本研究运用逆向工程技术,对玩具汽车内饰的模型进行重建并完成其成型工艺与模具设计。玩具汽车内饰的外形曲面比较复杂,采用逆向工程方法,利用三维扫描仪高效率、高精度地完成了该部件的点云数据采集工作。同时应用Geomagic软件完成玩具汽车内饰的点云数据处理和曲面重构。然后以UG软件完成玩具汽车内饰模型重建并用其Mold Wizard模块完成产品的成型工艺与模具设计。