促进中国经济长期持续 均衡增长中的公共投资因素 ——基于1 489份调查问卷的统计分析

根据对北京等7个城市的1 489份调查问卷分析我国长期经济增长中的公共投资问题，发现制约和促进中国经济持续均衡增长的最主要因素是技术进步；为促进中国经济长期持续均衡增长，公共投资最主要作用是引导战略产业成长，公共投资最应该投向的领域是“科教文体卫”等公益项目，公共投资与GDP最合适比例应在10%左右，公共投资最应该发挥的是社会福利效应等，并提出提升公共投资促进中国经济长期持续均衡增长的相关政策建议。     

长距离隧道的通风选型问题浅析

笔者以新建兰渝铁路六标段花石隧道为例,对该隧道的应有的通风设计,结合现有通风方式的弊端和改进,进行浅要的比较分析,在此基础上对同类型隧道的通风选型进行总结。     

ECONOMIC RECESSIONS,BANKING REFORM AND THE FUTURE OF CAPITALISM1

In the 2010 London School of Economics and Political Science Hayek Memorial Lecture, the author argues that flaws in the design of the monetary and financial system were responsible for the global financial crisis and the subsequent recession. The crash reflected the unsustainable nature of the bubble induced by artificial credit expansion created by fractional‐reserve banking under the direction of central banks. Such boom–bust cycles will continue until radical reforms are implemented, including a 100% reserve requirement for demand deposits.     

采用相位判决的低复杂度广义空间调制检测算法

针对广义空间调制（GSM）系统中信号检测复杂度过高的问题，提出了一种基于相位判决的低复杂度检测算法。首先根据一种排序准则对天线组合进行排序，然后将排序后的天线组合中的符号向量依次通过基于相位判决的迫零(ZF)均衡器进行检测，最终得到星座调制符号和激活天线组合。分析和仿真结果表明，该检测算法可以有效缩小接收端的搜索范围，在提供与最大似然（ML）检测算法相近的误比特率（BER）性能的同时，计算复杂度降低了98%。     

Preference shocks,international frictions,and international business cycles

Replicating the degree of cross-country comovements of macroeconomic aggregates, dynamics of prices and quantities of international trade, and the behavior of consumption and labor remains an important challenge in international business cycle literature. This paper incorporates preference shocks into a standard two-country model in which there exist international frictions, such as costs of transportation and restrictions to international asset trade. Country-specific preference shocks that generate fluctuations in each country's consumption and labor solve the puzzles, except for the discrepancy between theory and data regarding international trade variables. The presence or absence of international frictions plays a limited role in solving the puzzles.     

The importance of firing costs and the Hosios condition in search models with endogenous job destruction

We construct a DSGE search model with endogenous job destruction, incorporating wage rigidities, firing costs and unemployment benefit. We investigate the most important factors in matching the model’s cyclical properties with empirical data, particularly those of job creation rates (JCR) and job destruction rates (JDR). Firing costs assist significantly in explaining the procyclicality of JCR, the negative correlation of JCR and JDR, and the persistence of vacancies. They also decrease the counter-cyclicality of job turnover. We also postulate that the Hosios condition helps explain the negative correlation of JCR and JDR and vacancies’ persistence. Varying wage rigidities and unemployment income, however, do not improve the results.     

Persistence,mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830–2013

The objective of this study is to provide a direct estimate of the degree of persistence of measures of nominal and real house prices for the US economy, covering the longest possible annual sample of data, namely 1830–2013. The estimation of the degree of persistence accommodates for non-linear (deterministic) trends using Chebyshev polynomials in time. In general, the results show a high degree of persistence in the series along with a component of non-linear behaviour. In general, if we assume uncorrelated errors, non-linearities are observed in both nominal and real prices, but this hypothesis is rejected in favour of linear models for the log-transformation of the data. However, if autocorrelated errors are permitted, non-linearities are observed in all cases, and mean reversion is found in the case of logged prices, though given the wide confidence intervals, the unit root null hypothesis cannot be rejected in these cases.     

一种改进的CPFSK信号频率估计方法

针对突发信号解调中多普勒频偏大的问题，提出了一种改进的连续相位移频键控信号(CPFSK)频率估计方法。首先接收信号平方运算使信号的调制指数加倍，再通过一次离散傅里叶变换(DFT)，用搜索信号平方谱谱峰的方法实现突发信号频率估计。仿真实验表明，在低信噪比条件下，该算法的频率估计精度比经典的相位差频率估计算法提高了20%；该算法与广泛用于高动态突发信号的频率插值估计算法相比，同道干扰信道下信干比改善可达4 dB，DFT长度缩短约1/3。     

Growth and real business cycles in Vietnam and the Asean-5. Does the trend shock matter?

We examine Vietnam’s economy in comparison with its closest trade partners. We show that capital accumulation has been the primary growth engine since the start of its transition to the pro-market economy in 1986 – the Doi Moi. We also show that the cyclical behavior of its macro aggregates is similar to that of its ASEAN-5 peers and other developing countries. We extend the standard small open economy RBC model by considering habit persistence and government consumption, which allows a close match of the moments of the growth variables. At the business cycle frequency, transitory productivity shocks account for approximately one-half of Vietnam’s output variance, while country risk and non-transitory productivity shocks account to close to one-fifth each. Regarding the Solow residual’s volatility, we find that the trend component merely accounts for 12 % of this variance in Vietnam, while in Thailand it is only 6 %. These findings refute the “the cycle is the trend” hypothesis in Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) and align with the hypotheses in García-Cicco et al. (2010) and Rhee (2017), where the stationary component is overwhelmingly dominant. We claim that technological progress and productivity-enhancing measures are fundamental for Vietnam’s economy to sustain high growth.