浅析生育意愿下降对我国社会基本养老保险的影响

近20年我国城镇居民的生育愿望明显下降,生育意愿下降对我国社会养老保障会产生不利影响。揭示了生育意愿下降的现状及产生的原因,将自愿不育的女性和生育女性的终生收入、支出和养老保障水平进行对比,分析两者在养老保障方面的成本和收益差别。剖析了生育意愿下降对社会养老保险造成的不利影响,提出了解决问题的建议。     

一种基于R3D网络的人体行为识别算法

现有的行为识别算法不能充分地提取抽象的行为特征,为此提出了基于三维残差卷积神经网络（3D Residual Convolutional Neural Network,R3D）的人体行为识别算法。该网络在三维卷积神经网络（3D Convolutional Neural Network,3D-CNN）基础上加入了残差模块,可以更好地提取时空域的特征,然后通过改变步长大小进行特征图降维,提高网络效率,并加入批量归一化层和Softplus激活函数,提高网络的收敛速度和拟合能力;之后添加Dropout层,降低过拟合风险,并且使用全局平均池化层(Global Average Pooling,GAP)代替全连接层,克服了网络参数量过大的问题;最后,使用Softmax进行分类。实验结果表明,使用R3D网络在HMDB-51数据集上获得了62.3%的识别率。     

Interstate switched access demand analysis

The breakup of the Bell System in 1984 led to the adoption by the Federal Communications Commission of a system of tariff charges that are paid to local exchange carriers by business and residential telephone subscribers, and interexchange carriers such as AT&T. These charges are designed to recover the costs associated with providing access to the public switched network to complete interstate calls. This system is known as the FCC Access Charge Plan. Flat-rate fees, named Subscriber Line Charges, are imposed on telephone subscribers, while usage-based charges are billed to interexchange carriers. These are called Carrier Common Line and Traffic Sensitive rates. Since CCL and TS rates are based on network usage, forecasts of switched access demand are required to set them properly.This paper presents an econometric model of interstate switched access demand developed and utilized by AT&T to produce forecasts of 1988 demand in connection with the Annual 1988 Access Tariff Filings. The model is estimated in a state-level pooled cross-sectional time-series framework, with dynamics introduced via polynomial distributed lags on price and income. It represents an extension of the econometric demand model developed and used by the FCC a year earlier to determine a reasonable forecast of 1987 Carrier Common Line switched access demand. Estimated demand elasticities and forecasts are provided. The model forecasts are also compared to those from other models.     

Entry deterrence when the potential entrant is your competitor in a different market

In this article, we present a two‐period model in which one firm operates in two markets: a monopoly and a duopoly. Assuming that this firm has private information on the cross‐price elasticity of demand between the products sold in both markets, it limits its quantity supplied in the monopoly market in order to make its rival in the other market believe that entry into the monopolized market is unprofitable. As a result of this strategy, the average prices observed in both markets increase. This result suggests that the detrimental effects of entry deterrence on consumers' welfare are stronger than those predicted by previous literature.     

Outsourcing, labor market pooling, and labor contracts

This paper considers the interaction between input sharing and labor market pooling in urban areas. In particular, it examines the impact of the size of a city and business risks on the organizational structures of firms located in urban agglomerations, and it also discusses the impact of organizational structure on incentives to insure workers against income risks. It is shown that manufacturing firms suffer from a coordination game in their decision to outsource production. The existence of idiosyncratic risks causes manufacturers to refrain from outsourcing. The incentives to offer wage and employment protection to workers are more pronounced when manufacturers outsource the production of their inputs to a local market, which mitigates the impact of labor market pooling.     

我国企业合并会计方法的比较分析

随着市场经济的发展,企业合并变得越来越重要,而且企业合并问题一直以来都是会计界所共同关注的问题。文章依据新会计准则的规定,对企业合并的两种会计处理方法——权益结合法和购买法,从其会计处理的差异及其产生的影响等方面进行比较分析。     

养老保险统筹账户：基于可持续运行角度的参数效应研究

文章针对城镇职工基本养老保险统筹账户面临的问题,重建了可持续运行能力的衡量指标。以现行制度为基础构建模型,利用精算方法预测统筹账户收支规模及平均替代率的变化趋势。在对退休年龄、在岗职工的平均工资和参保人数对账户可持续性造成综合影响进行比较静态分析之后发现：提高参保率是较为得力的措施。同时文章还借鉴国外经验提出了相应的政策建议。     

基于国际比较的我国养老金制度目标模式选择

本文通过对国际上三种成功的养老金制度的比较,对我国养老金制度的目标模式提出了自己的思路。即在保留统筹账户的基础上,做实个人账户,并对个人账户资金采取私人分散管理的方式,建立相应的风险控制机制。以期实现提高制度效率和控制风险的目的。     

Market Transparency and Market Structure: The Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act of 1999

The premise of the Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act of 1999 is that enhanced transparency promotes competition. This article provides a theoretical study of the consequences of such transparency for the structure, conduct, and performance of the livestock industry. I conclude that the usefulness of the Act to the livestock industry may not be in the value of reported information to feeders, as the supporters of the Act claim. Rather, by forcing packers to pool information at negligible marginal cost, the Act may foster more competitive conduct in the procurement of livestock.     

Conducting Measurement Validation with Experimental Data: Cautions and Recommendations

In this paper, the authors highlight several problems associated with conducting measurement validation using pooled experimental data. Beginning with a simple two-variable data set, the authors illustrate that pooling data can bias correlation and alpha coefficients, even when the data exhibit homogeneous covariance structures across treatment cells. They then introduce a data set that includes multiple measures for three latent constructs and extend the examination to include the effect of pooling bias on exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Three alternative approaches to conducting measurement validation that control for pooling bias are examined.