Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation. An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany and India

Germany has committed itself toreducing its carbon emissions by 25 percent in2005 as compared to 1990 emission levels. Toachieve this goal, the government has recentlylaunched an environmental tax reform whichentails a continuous increase in energy taxesin conjunction with a revenue-neutral cut innon-wage labor costs. This policy is supposedto yield a double dividend, reducing both, theproblem of global warming and high unemploymentrates. In addition to domestic actions,international treaties on climate protectionallow for the supplementary use of flexibleinstruments to exploit cheaper emissionreduction possibilities elsewhere. One concreteoption for Germany would be to enter jointimplementation (JI) with developing countriessuch as India where Germany pays emissionreduction abroad rather than meeting itsreduction target solely by domestic action. Inthis paper, we investigate whether anenvironmental tax reform cum JI providesemployment and overall efficiency gains ascompared to an environmental tax reformstand-alone. We address this question in theframework of a large-scale general equilibriummodel for Germany and India where Germany mayundertake JI with the Indian electricitysector. Our main finding is that JI offsetslargely the adverse effects of carbon emissionconstraints on the German economy. JIsignificantly lowers the level of carbon taxesand thus reduces the total costs of abatementas well as negative effects on labor demand. Inaddition, JI triggers direct investment demandfor energy efficient power plants produced inGermany. This provides positive employmenteffects and additional income for Germany. ForIndia, joint implementation equips itselectricity industry with scarce capital goodsleading to a more efficient power productionwith lower electricity prices for the economyand substantial welfare gains.     

Overlapping Generations or Infinitely-Lived Agents: Intergenerational Altruism and the Economics of Global Warming

Do we need an overlapping generations model for the economics of global warming? To answer this question, an infinitely-lived agent (ILA) approach and an overlapping generations (OLG) model are contrasted. ILA and OLG can be viewed as polar representations of intergenerational altruism. With ILA an immortal agent acts through his investment/savings decisions as trustee on the behalf of the future generations. With OLG, agents need not behave altruistic. They simply save during working years and dissave completely during retirement. Nevertheless, ILA and OLG must not differ in their implication for greenhouse policy. Greenhouse gas abatement is a straightforward alternative to physical capital formation and, even without altruism, each age cohort has an incentive to provide current abatement in order to reduce future damages attributable to climate change. Indeed, under reasonable assumptions and parameter values, our simulations reveal such an invariance result. Provided carbon taxes are the only policy tool and tax revenues are recycled through socially mandated rules, projections of economic growth, climate change and energy consumption are only insignificantly affected by the choice of approach.     

Ex-post full surplus extraction,straightforwardly

Consider an estimate of the common value of an auctioned asset that is symmetric in the bidders’ types. Such an estimate can be represented solely in terms of the order statistics of those types. This representation forms the basis for a pricing rule yielding truthful bidding as an equilibrium, whether bidders’ types are affiliated or independent. We highlight the link between the estimator and full surplus extraction, providing a necessary and sufficient condition for ex-post full surplus extraction, including the possibility of independent types. The results offer sharp insights into the strengths and limits of simple auctions by identifying the source of informational rents in such environments. Harstad acknowledges hospitable accommodation by the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, and the Olin School of Business, Washington University in St. Louis, during parts of this research. We are grateful for comments and suggestions from Richard McLean and Jeroen Swinkels.     

基于生态学思考的小城镇新区规划设计新理念

基于生态学的思考,小城镇新区规划设计应树立五个新理念:深化人本思想、突出文化内涵、注重景观设计、树立超前意识、发扬务实精神。新理念在实践过程中体现在:营造人性化的小城镇新区、塑造地方性的小城镇特色、打造园林式的小城镇景观、构造灵活性的小城镇格局、绘就实用性的小城镇蓝图。     

Societal preferences for fertility treatment in Australia: a stated preference discrete choice experiment

Objective: To investigate preferences for fertility treatment from the Australian general population with the aims of calculating the willingness to pay in tax contribution for attributes (characteristics) that make up treatment and for an “ideal” fertility treatment program. We also assessed whether willingness-to-pay varies by the relationship status or sexual orientation of the patient.

Methods: A stated preference discrete choice experiment was administered to a panel of 801 individuals representative of the Australian general population. Seven attributes of fertility treatment under three broad categories were included: outcome, process, and cost. Attributes were identified through published literature, focus group discussions, expert knowledge, and a pilot study. A Bayesian fractional experimental design was used, and data analysis was performed using a generalized multinomial logit model. Further analyses included interaction terms and latent class modeling.

Results: Six of the seven attributes influenced the choice of a treatment program. Under process attributes, individuals preferred: continuity of care of clinic staff, where patients are seen by the same doctor but different nurses at each visit; “alternative” treatments being offered to all patients; and onsite clinic counseling and peer-support groups. Personalization and tailoring of the treatment journey were not important. Among outcome attributes, the improved success rate of having a baby per cycle and significant side-effects were considered important. Cost of treatment also influenced the choice of treatment program. Individual preferences for fertility treatment were not associated with patients’ relationship status or sexual orientation. Latent class modeling revealed sub-groups with distinct fertility treatment preferences.

Conclusion: This study provides important insights into the attributes that influence the preferences of fertility treatment in Australia. It also estimates socially-inclusive willingness-to-pay values in tax contributions for an “ideal” package of treatment. The results can inform economic evaluations of fertility treatment programs.     

Public policies as specification errors

Treating public policies as computable dynamic general equilibrium model specification errors offers computational and conceptional advantages for comparing models with data. The set of policies calculated to rationalize observed behaviors raises the substantive economic question whether, in any particular market, actual public policies sufficiently coincide with the model's behavior-rationalizing policies, or whether the model offers correct hypotheses about the determinants of demand and supply. As illustrations, public policies are calculated to rationalize, with respect to the stochastic neoclassical growth model, capital market behavior since WWII and labor market behavior in 1929–1950. One conclusion is that capital taxation drives a wedge between consumption growth and the expected pre-tax capital return, in the direction and amount predicted by the theory, and that capital taxation is the major intertemporal distortion in the postwar capital market. Second, a good theory of the Great Depression labor market must explain why measured MRS and MPL diverged so dramatically in 1929–1933 and why the wedge persisted.     

生态农业模式构建与应用——以广饶县为例

本文从农业可持续发展、资源永续利用的原则出发,探讨了构建生态农业模式的原则,以山东省广饶县为例,系统分析了在该县构建和应用生态农业模式的优势条件和制约因素,具体论述了适合广饶县发展的三种生态农业模式:农—牧—沼型、上粮下渔型和草—畜—乳型生态农业模式。     

模块化设计中的价值管理

模块化设计作为新产业结构的本质特征,实际上是工业时代产品标准化概念的延伸和发展。它既强调产品的统一性和各部分的标准化,同时又强调产品整体最优和各部分的创新性。分解组合思想是其基本思想所在,即将大系统“化整为零”,分解成为若干小系统,实现小系统局部最优和将小系统“合零为整”,使之相互协调配合,实现大系统全局最优的结合。文中运用系统评价的价值分析方法,以功能为核心对系统进行分解,使具有协同作用的模块的组合形成功能组合,达到整体功能最优,从而实现功能放大的效果,同时通过个别模块的替代或特定模块的升级带动整体功能的替换或功能水平的提升。由此看来,将价值管理应用于模块化设计中,为多样化时代的标准化工作提供了新的技术管理方式和思维方式。     

基于可靠度理论的现役框架结构的维修设计

现役建筑结构经过一段时间的使用，其抗力和荷载效应都与设计时的不同。本文根据实际情况，采用串联分析模型，计算结构体系的失效概率。并通过对结构体系的失效概率直接进行调整，实现对现役结构可靠度的维修设计。以此对结构的安全性进行评估，为框架结构的维修决策提供了依据。     

On exact D-optimal designs with 2 two-level factors and n autocorrelated observations

In this paper we consider the exact D-optimal designs for estimation of the unknown parameters in the two factors, each at only two-level, main effects model with autocorrelated errors. The vector of the n random errors in the observed responses is assumed to follow a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)). The exact D-optimal designs seek the optimal combinations of the design levels as well as the optimal run orders, so that the determinant of the information matrix of BLUEs for the unknown parameters is maximized. Bora-Senta and Moyssiadis (1999) gave some conjectures about the exact D-optimal designs based on their experience of several exhaustive searches. In this paper their conjectures are partially proved to be true.Received: January 2003 / Accepted: October 2003Partially supported by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 91-2115-M-008-013.Supported in part by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 89-2118-M-110-003.